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   <title>Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/" />
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   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1</id>
   <updated>2010-03-21T19:36:43Z</updated>
   <subtitle>Senior Managing Director, Enterra Solutions
This is my personal weblog. As such, the views expressed here are my own.</subtitle>
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<entry>
   <title>Tom on the strategic logic of U.S. military facilities around the Gap/Colombia</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/tom_on_colombian_bases.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11205</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-21T18:18:01Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-21T19:36:43Z</updated>
   
   <summary>ARTICLE: &apos;US-Colombia military base pact is misunderstood&apos;, By Brett Borkan, Colombia Reports, 19 March 2010 The whole thing is an interview with Tom, so please go check it out. Tom writes: Only quibble I make: I told him upfront I...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Sean Meade</name>
      
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>ARTICLE: <a href="http://colombiareports.com/colombia-news/interviews/8780-global-context-needed-to-understand-us-colombian-military-base-agreement.html">'US-Colombia military base pact is misunderstood'</a>, By Brett Borkan, <em>Colombia Reports</em>, 19 March 2010</blockquote>

The whole thing is an interview with Tom, so please go check it out.

Tom writes:

<blockquote>Only quibble I make:  I told him upfront I was not an expert on Colombia or our cooperation there but that I could only respond in a general strategic sense.  I would have liked to see that disclaimer made up front.  But otherwise very happy with the translation made on an over-the-phone interview. </blockquote>]]>
      
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</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Obama&apos;s hurry to leave Afghanistan precludes strategic imagination</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/obamas_hurry_to_leave_afghanis.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11201</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-20T09:10:21Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-20T03:13:38Z</updated>
   
   <summary>OP-ED: Why the U.S. must talk to the Taliban, By Ahmed Rashid, Washington Post, March 18, 2010 Nice piece by Rashid, that underlies the regional concerns over the situation that Team Obama seems to be shaping up as their leave-behind...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>OP-ED: <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/16/AR2010031603302_pf.html">Why the U.S. must talk to the Taliban</a>, By Ahmed Rashid, <em>Washington Post</em>, March 18, 2010</blockquote>

Nice piece by Rashid, that underlies the regional concerns over the situation that Team Obama seems to be shaping up as their leave-behind -- namely, the same old, same old of Pakistan domination from the South via the Taliban.

Key para:

<blockquote>
India, Iran and Russia have long been averse to any dialogue with the Taliban that could give Pakistan greater leverage in the region or with Washington. All see the various extremist groups based in Pakistan as threats to their security. India is working to rebuild the regional alliance that opposed the Taliban and Pakistan in the 1990s. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin visited India last Thursday, partly to discuss a common strategy on a post-U.S. Afghanistan. Senior Indian officials have met with Karzai in Kabul and are due in Iran later this month.
</blockquote>

The possibility worth noting?  Another Mumbai-like attack that puts India and Pakistan on a war-footing with each other.

The reason why Rashid says talk now is that the regional players are all seeking to influence the outcome--outside of any U.S. effort, and so most of the die will already be cast if we don't seek out the Taliban dialogue soon.

I must admit, the whole approach of the Obama administration disappoints.  No strategic imagination here whatsoever, and Holbrooke seems marginal--as does Clinton.  We seek merely to fix the situation up in the South just enough to leave, meaning we end up relying on Pakistan to the dissatisfaction of everybody in the region--except for Pakistan.

I still hold out some hope for a more regionalized approach, but I'm seeing and hearing nothing to that effect.

(Thanks: Our man in Kabul))]]>
      
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<entry>
   <title>Iraq election aftermath</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/iraq_election_aftermath.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11200</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-20T09:05:42Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-20T03:08:31Z</updated>
   
   <summary> ARTICLE: Iraq Elections: Maliki&apos;s Path to Re-election, By Kirk Sowell, World Politics Review, 16 Mar 2010 ARTICLE: Followers of Sadr Emerge Stronger After Iraq Elections, By ANTHONY SHADID, New York Times, March 16, 2010 Very nice piece of analysis...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>
ARTICLE: <a href="http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=5279">Iraq Elections: Maliki's Path to Re-election</a>, By Kirk Sowell, <em>World Politics Review</em>, 16 Mar 2010

ARTICLE: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/17/world/middleeast/17sadr.html">Followers of Sadr Emerge Stronger After Iraq Elections</a>, 
By ANTHONY SHADID, <em>New York Times</em>, March 16, 2010
</blockquote>

Very nice piece of analysis by Sowell.

Presumed outcome is Maliki + Kurds + non-Sadr Shiite Islamists = coalition, with Sadr spoiling ineffectively and the Sunnis living with minority political status.

Thus:

<blockquote>
Assuming the most likely scenario, the election's outcome will most benefit Arab-Kurd relations on the national level, and Iraq's oil industry. In light of Kurdish leverage over Maliki, the long-awaited national oil law could be near (even if a Kirkuk compromise may be too much to hope for), and Maliki's re-election means the companies that won last December's licensing round will breathe easier. But look for a deterioration of provincial-level Arab-Kurd relations, as Sunni Arabs in Ninawa, Kirkuk and Diyala fear they will be marginalized by another Shiite-Kurd government.
</blockquote>

Of my scenarios offered in the WPR column a while back, the Big Oil Wins seems most operative.  Federalism survives, Iran's influence seems intact but not particularly increased, and democracy looks about as good as it gets in this region.

Shadid's piece, in contrast, portrays the Sadrists as just as big a kingmaker as the Kurds, and with Allawi, according to CNN just now (17 Mar) edging ahead of Maliki, maybe the PM will need them more.]]>
      
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<entry>
   <title>Why Iran is so attractive as a market:  the workaround skills of the population</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/why_iran_is_so_attractive_as_a.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11199</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-20T09:02:30Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-20T03:04:53Z</updated>
   
   <summary> WORLD NEWS: &quot;Iranians switch to informal saving funds as loans dry up,&quot; by Najmeh Bozorgmehr, Financial Times, 13-14 March 2010. People and businesses spontaneously pooling resources and organizing themselves as loan-sharing services--sort of mutual micro-lending that gets around the...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
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      <![CDATA[<blockquote>
WORLD NEWS:  "Iranians switch to informal saving funds as loans dry up," by Najmeh Bozorgmehr, <i>Financial Times</i>, 13-14 March 2010.
</blockquote>

People and businesses spontaneously pooling resources and organizing themselves as loan-sharing services--sort of mutual micro-lending that gets around the increasingly isolated and sanctioned banking system. 

It's a sign of ever-deepening stagnation, of course (which is why I find all this "Iran is getting stronger!" stuff to be nonsense), but something to remember when the connectivity breakthrough finally comes.  This is one skillful and resilient population.]]>
      
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<entry>
   <title>The al-Qaeda-after-next is not to be feared, merely scheduled</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/the_al-qaeda-after-next_is_not.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11203</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-20T08:17:18Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-20T03:19:39Z</updated>
   
   <summary> SECURITY | ISLAM: &quot;Terror Has a New Name; Lashkar-e-Taiba--the Pakistani militant group that perpetrated the 2008 Mumbai attacks--Is Getting Ready to Go Global,&quot; by Jeremy Kahn, Newsweek, 15 March 2010. The roster is always going to be shifting. That&apos;s...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>
SECURITY | ISLAM:  "<a href="http://www.newsweek.com/id/234265">Terror Has a New Name</a>;  Lashkar-e-Taiba--the Pakistani militant group that perpetrated the 2008 Mumbai attacks--Is Getting Ready to Go Global," by Jeremy Kahn, <i>Newsweek</i>, 15 March 2010.
</blockquote>

The roster is always going to be shifting.

That's why we call it the long war.

How long?  Until globalization is truly global--simple as that.]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Transparency for the Chinese taxpayer?</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/transparency_for_the_chinese_t.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11202</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-20T08:15:26Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-20T03:16:55Z</updated>
   
   <summary> WORLD NEWS: &quot;Activists Test Beijing Openness Vow,&quot; by Shai Oster, Wall Street Journal, 11 March 2010. Very sensible and positive sign: some cities and provinces starting to bow to popular pressure, with some approval from Beijing, to publish public...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>
WORLD NEWS:  "<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703943504575095610544157840.html">Activists Test Beijing Openness Vow</a>," by Shai Oster, <i>Wall Street Journal</i>, 11 March 2010.
</blockquote>

Very sensible and positive sign:  some cities and provinces starting to bow to popular pressure, with some approval from Beijing, to publish public finances, long considered a state secret (the usual BS that hides mucho corruption).

Sichuan quake was a driver here, as well it should have been.

China passed a freedom-of-info-like act in May 2008 to please the WTO.  Naturally, it's a weakly enforced piece of paper, and yet, more and more activists are working hard to exploit it. 

One guy, Wu Junliang, helped open up Shenzen city's budget, declaring that he did so because "I'm trying to raise taxpayers' consciousness" by showing where their money is going.

Gotta love that.

Another big push factor:  the clearly over-budget Three Gorges dam project, estimated at $8B in 1992.  Last year the government admitted it's more like $37B now, and critics say the truth is more like $75B.  Why the secrecy?  Beijing would have to explain how government and party officials siphoned off so much money.

All good stuff.  Unreasonable individuals leading the way!]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>India&apos;s foreign policy exceeds ours</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/indias_foreign_policy_exceeds.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11187</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-19T09:58:41Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-19T01:02:47Z</updated>
   
   <summary>ARTICLE: India Looks to Deepen Its Afghan Presence, By Priyanka Bhardwaj, World Politics Review, 18 Mar 2010 Well, I recently blogged a piece that suggested India was scaling down. This one on WPR says otherwise, at least in the title,...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
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      <![CDATA[<blockquote>ARTICLE: <a href="http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=5295">India Looks to Deepen Its Afghan Presence</a>, By Priyanka Bhardwaj, <em>World Politics Review</em>, 18 Mar 2010</blockquote>

Well, I recently blogged a piece that suggested <a href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/bad_developments_for_india_in.html">India was scaling down</a>.  This one on WPR says otherwise, at least in the title, but doesn't exactly sell me going forward since all the examples of development effort were seemingly long or already underway and the major uptick was described as being more security personnel for Indian nationals working there.  So if this story counters the previous one, it does so only in the sense of suggesting that India, while not particularly deepening its presence all that much, won't be drawing down either.

I guess I would say India is "hardening" its presence more than deepening.

I will say that I like India's moves to jump-start a regional approach:

<blockquote>
This explains New Delhi's recent push for greater international cooperation, with the inclusion of Russia and Iran, to reinvigorate efforts at arriving at an appropriate regional mechanism to tackle growing fundamentalism throughout the region.
</blockquote>

I also like her logic on the way forward:

<blockquote>
Thus, in the overall context of coming under increasing attack in Afghanistan, India will need to combine its goal of becoming a major stakeholder in that country's stabilization with several concrete measures to raise Pakistan's confidence about its presence. To begin with, New Delhi must make its development work in Afghanistan more transparent. In addition, a constant, formal and wide-ranging engagement with Islamabad on issues relating to Afghanistan will be required.

India must also harmonize its desire for the total elimination of the Taliban in Afghanistan with the emerging international consensus calling for a political resolution to Afghanistan's civil war. To this end, Afghan President Hamid Karzai will likely try to maintain friendly ties with India as a potential counterweight to Pakistan's historic relations with the Taliban, while remaining committed to preventing any proxy wars being staged in his country.

Finding the necessary balance, and thereafter maintaining it, will be a challenge for all three countries. 
</blockquote>

Smart piece.  My optimism is somewhat restored, although I'm embarrassed to see India pursuing the foreign policy that should be our own--aggressive regionalization of the issue.

(Thanks: Our man in Kabul)]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>China:  the princelings are a nice big, fat target of populism</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/china_the_princelings_are_a_ni.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11191</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-19T09:55:02Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-19T02:56:14Z</updated>
   
   <summary> WORLD NEWS: &quot;Enrichment of Chinese officials&apos; children seen as source of popular discontent,&quot; by Jamil Anderlini, Financial Times, 13-14 March 2010. China&apos;s former--and well-respected--state auditor (Mr. Li Jinhua) says that the business dealings of the children of Party officials...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>
WORLD NEWS:  "<a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b31b0a28-2e40-11df-85c0-00144feabdc0.html">Enrichment of Chinese officials' children seen as source of popular discontent</a>," by Jamil Anderlini, <i>Financial Times</i>, 13-14 March 2010.
</blockquote>

China's former--and well-respected--state auditor (Mr. Li Jinhua) says that the business dealings of the children of Party officials is becoming the main source of public anger toward the state.  Party officials, it is estimated, benefit indirectly through "various shades of illegal income streams."

The solution, as always, is better rules:

<blockquote>
"I feel our country's legal system has not yet been fully constructed and many legal definitions are not clear," Mr. Li said.
</blockquote>

The funny kicker?  The publishing paper of record (<i>People's Daily</i>) is suspected of pushing the subject as part of their subscription drive!]]>
      
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<entry>
   <title>Good dissection of underlying struggle in Turkey</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/good_dissection_of_underlying.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11190</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-19T09:51:45Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-19T02:54:38Z</updated>
   
   <summary> COMMENT: &quot;Turkey needs more from Ataturk&apos;s irrelevant heirs,&quot; by David Gardner, Financial Times, 12 March 2010. Just a solid piece that gives me the contextual overview I&apos;ve been craving on the whole AK Party-versus-the-Turkish-military story. The usual story in...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>
COMMENT:  "<a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5c13a8f0-2d48-11df-9c5b-00144feabdc0.html">Turkey needs more from Ataturk's irrelevant heirs</a>," by David Gardner, <i>Financial Times</i>, 12 March 2010.
</blockquote>

Just a solid piece that gives me the contextual overview I've been craving on the whole AK Party-versus-the-Turkish-military story.

The usual story in Europe is that Turkey is struggling to locate its identity as it works to meet criteria for entry into the EU, thus the need to show the military is properly housebroken. 

But since those negotiations have stalled, despite Turkey's heroic efforts to conform, Gardner locates a different struggle:  the more sophisticated urban middle class, long represented by the Kemalist parties, fears the rise of the grubbier, lower-middle class cohort from the countryside (meaning anywhere outside of Istanbul, apparently), which sides with the AK Party (usually described as Islamist).

Sounds vaguely blue state v. red state, does it not?

Gardner's basic point:  the Kemalist parties are rudderless, while the AK Party continues its sophisticated balancing act:

<blockquote>
The AKP, by contrast, is demonstrably the chosen path to modernity of the socially conservative, observant but at the same time dynamic and entrepreneurial middle classes of central Anatolia, who now demand their rightful share of power.  The AKP's appeal, in other words, is both aspirational and reassuring, by holding fast to the moorings of family, religion and the villages from which many Turks are just a generation away. 
</blockquote>

Sounds like a winning hand to me.  I mean, I can't come up with a better description of the sort of political movement that successfully navigates an Islamic population from Gap to Core status, something I think the AK Party has already achieved--thus the popular trust factor.

In the end, Turkey don't need no stinkin' badges!]]>
      
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<entry>
   <title>The Economist on containing Iran</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/the_economist_on_containing_ir.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11189</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-19T09:50:13Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-19T02:51:40Z</updated>
   
   <summary> UNITED STATES: &quot;Foreign policy: Containing Iran; The president is trapped between an angry Congress and a stubborn China,&quot; The Economist More exploration of the inevitability of America learning to contain a nuclear Iran. Yes, the GOP will claim, in...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
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      <![CDATA[<blockquote>
UNITED STATES:  "<a href="http://www.economist.com/world/united-states/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15663292">Foreign policy:  Containing Iran</a>; The president is trapped between an angry Congress and a stubborn China," <i>The Economist</i>< 13 March 2010.
</blockquote>

More exploration of the inevitability of America learning to contain a nuclear Iran. 

Yes, the GOP will claim, in infinite stupidity, that Obama "gave Iran the bomb," just like Truman was blamed for "losing China"--another beyond brain-dead statement.

No worries:  it will balance the untruthfulness of Obama's great "victories" in Iraq and Afghanistan.]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>India and Russia  growing nervous over Obama&apos;s Afghanistan strategy</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/india_and_russia_growing_nervo.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11188</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-19T09:03:33Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-19T01:16:31Z</updated>
   
   <summary> WORLD NEWS: &quot;India tells Putin of Afghan fears: Moscow urged to refocus on Kabul; Singh keen to curb Pakistan influence,&quot; by James Lamont, Financial Times, 13-14 March 2010. The regional powers surrounding Afghanistan are trading notes on what will...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>
WORLD NEWS:  "<a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/837849b2-2da4-11df-a971-00144feabdc0.html">India tells Putin of Afghan fears</a>:  Moscow urged to refocus on Kabul; Singh keen to curb Pakistan influence," by James Lamont, <i>Financial Times</i>, 13-14 March 2010.
</blockquote>

The regional powers surrounding Afghanistan are trading notes on what will need to be done once the U.S. is gone, the assumption being that Obama is committed to leaving--as evidenced by the deepening embrace of Pakistan, which in turn is smart enough to deliver in the short run, feeding Washington's impression that this is all going well.

India is proposing that Russia join it, Iran and the Central Asian states in a hedging strategy of the sort that, not all that long ago, had them all supporting the Northern Alliance versus the Pakistani-backed Taliban. 

Hard to see this not happening again.  And when it does, Obama will be condemned for merely recreating the pre-9/11 standoff.

Compared to the stunningly different Iraq we see today, that will make the war effort seem like a complete waste.]]>
      
   </content>
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<entry>
   <title>Spirituality eclipsing religion</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/spirituality_eclipsing_religio.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11192</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-19T08:56:22Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-19T02:59:16Z</updated>
   
   <summary>OP-ED: Spirit Quest, By CHARLES M. BLOW, New York Times, February 19, 2010 The gist: A report entitled &quot; Religion Among the Millennials&quot; produced by the Pew Research Center&apos;s Forum on Religion and Public Life and released this week found...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>OP-ED: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/20/opinion/20blow.html">Spirit Quest</a>, By CHARLES M. BLOW, <em>New York Times</em>, February 19, 2010 </blockquote>

The gist:

<blockquote>
A report entitled " Religion Among the Millennials" produced by the Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion and Public Life and released this week found that one in four people 18 to 29 years old are unaffiliated with a religion. But that by no means makes them all atheists or agnostics. While there are always religious people among the unaffiliated, the numbers are significantly higher among the younger unaffiliated crowd. While they are less likely than those unaffiliated and older than them to believe in God, they are more likely to believe in life after death, heaven and hell, and miracles.

So, anyone laboring under the delusion that the generation weaned on MTV would move us closer to being weaned of an abnormally high level of religiosity -- at least when compared with other industrialized countries -- may have to keep waiting.

In fact, on some measures, the data suggest that these so-called millennials may be more spiritually thirsty than older generations.
</blockquote>

Find this true in my own family:  what a complete bitch to keep my older kids Catholic enough to get them through Confirmation, but it's clear that the spirituality is there and growing.  It's just not being answered particularly well by the chosen vessel.

All part of the Prothero/"Religious Illiteracy" argument:  Americans become more faithful over time, just less specific about it.

Is this bad?  Only if you think every answer for today's world can be found in the Bible.

Me personally, I have more faith in God's creations (humans) than any one historical snapshot of that faith's evolution.  In general, I love our ability to adapt ourselves to a changing environment, and I think that human quality will be ever more important across this century.

Bottom line:  religions are in for a lot of systemic challenges and change across this century, but spirituality will most definitely expand as life grows more complex and people seek moral handholds--a big theme of <i>Great Powers</i>.]]>
      
   </content>
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<entry>
   <title>OTH recon with SysAdmin blimps</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/oth_recon_with_sysadmin_blimps.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11196</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-19T08:10:02Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-19T03:11:18Z</updated>
   
   <summary>ARTICLE: Military seeks an intelligence-gathering airship, By Walter Pincus, Washington Post, February 16, 2010 How very SysAdmin: the ability to project persistent transparency over a chunk of the Gap using 21st-century &quot;blimps.&quot; Another step in the evolution of the force...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>ARTICLE: <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/15/AR2010021503088.html">Military seeks an intelligence-gathering airship</a>, By Walter Pincus, <em>Washington Post</em>, February 16, 2010 </blockquote>

How very SysAdmin: the ability to project persistent transparency over a chunk of the Gap using 21st-century "blimps."

Another step in the evolution of the force toward the enduring realities of Gap shrinkage.]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Swine flu didn&apos;t reach feared heights</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/swine_flu_didnt_reach_feared_h.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11195</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-19T08:08:09Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-19T03:09:47Z</updated>
   
   <summary>ARTICLE: Almost 1 in 5 Americans had swine flu; death rate over 11,000, By David Brown, Washington Post, February 13, 2010 While I suspect the one-in-five understates, it would be hard to argue against the 11,000 total being about one-third...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>ARTICLE: <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/12/AR2010021202204.html">Almost 1 in 5 Americans had swine flu; death rate over 11,000</a>, By David Brown, <em>Washington Post</em>, February 13, 2010 </blockquote>

While I suspect the one-in-five understates, it would be hard to argue against the 11,000 total being about one-third the usual flu toll.  

Primary reason why the death total didn't reach the predicted heights?  Gotta believe it was a combination of good care and the fact that the number of self-immolating cases (where the immune system gets too turned-on and ends up killing the patient) were not nearly as plentiful as feared.]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Congrats, Michal</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/congrats_michal.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11194</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-19T08:02:56Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-19T03:04:20Z</updated>
   
   <summary>Long-time reader/commenter Michal Shapiro&apos;s music blog is now appearing on Huffington Post. We congratulate her on the profile elevation. She deserves it....</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[Long-time reader/commenter <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michal-shapiro/no-emtheyem-are-the-world_b_472193.html">Michal Shapiro's music blog</a> is now appearing on Huffington Post.  We congratulate her on the profile elevation.  She deserves it.]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

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