Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

ARTICLE: As the World Turns, By Matthew Yglesias, The American Prospect, December 24, 2009

Nicely put, and without an ounce of hyperbole or fear-mongering:

The basic story of the contemporary United States involves the slightly awkward combination of unmatched power and inevitable relative decline. Our economy can't grow as fast as India's or China's or Brazil's, and there's no equivalent to the EU integration process that could enhance our power and expand our reach. The only real uncertainty about relative decline concerns the extent to which those powers will be joined by other potential regional powerhouses like Nigeria, Iran, South Africa, and Indonesia, if they ever get their acts together in terms of sustained economic growth.

But even though the waning of American hegemony can be clearly seen on the horizon, the fundamental reality is that it's a long way off. China's economy is basically only Japan-sized, and the country faces massive challenges starting with the fact that the majority of the population is still impoverished peasant farmers. India is even worse off. Japan is in demographic decline. Europe isn't an actual country and can't really make foreign-policy decisions.

In other words, our power is slipping away, but only very slowly.

The larger point of the article also rings through nicely.

I would disagree, though, about us not having any EU-like expansion possibility. Need to think outside the historical box on that one--the box since our last state addition, that is (HI, 8/21/59).

(Via WPR's Media Roundup)