Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

Go to the Truman Library website and look at the now de-classified documents, complete with President Truman's notes in the margins, to get an idea as to how much thought and research went into the decision to drop the bombs on Japan. He consulted with many experts, traditional and non-traditional, and sometimes went back to some of the experts many times to get as wide an array of perspectives as he could get to make his decision. He wanted information to gain the military, scientific, political, diplomatic, and mostly moral views to drop a weapon never used in the world up to that point and never used again. In my view, he did as much as he could before making one of the most agonizing decisions ever made.

Given the speed with which the Japanese army collapsed against the Soviets in Manchuria, its entirely possible the first people ashore in a hypothetical invasion of Japan would have been Russians. And how many millions would have died in a communist North Japan? Or in a war between the U.S. and Russia over Japan?

The American people did not have a limitless appetite for casualties, but Stalin did. Taking Japan in one piece was worth 2 atom bombs.

Just finishing Max Hastings' Retribution : the battle for Japan, 1944-45. His penultimate chapter is a good precis of the factors involved in dropping the bomb. Very insightful book. No way the US ever would have invaded since even conventional bombing would have taken Japan beyond the edge of starvation - but it seems only the shock of the bomb convinced the emperor to intervene. Best of all, it shows how delusional the Japanese were at that point. They were counting on Stalin to help them negotiate a settlement that would let them keep their conquered territories.

Best of all, Hastings focuses on strategy. Why take the Philippines at all? Why bother to fight in Burma (for British pride and Empire)? He zooms down to individual experiences then out to look at why the US could afford both Nimitz and MacArthur (because the issue was not in doubt and MacArthur had powerful Republican sponsors). Makes his book on the ETO something I can't wait to read.

First the Black Ships in 1856 and then the Bombs in 1945! Two shocks from which the Japanese culture is only now recovering. What will be of interest is how the Japanese relate across the full spectrum of human activities to the rise of China. This relationship is one of the richest in the history of humanity and my guess is many chapters to be written. After all if returning Japanese (returning from China) in the 7th Century C.E. decided to make the gardens they saw in Chinese paintings creating a world-wide interest in that special gardening technique what cross-culture currents will occur in the future. The Japanese have stopped having children in anywhere near replacement quantities, while the Chinese appear about to abandon the one child policy. Demographics alone make these two countries fascinating in the long run of human history. My guess is that story will be the subject of many studies over the next century. Hey, Tom about a post on exactly the status of the two countries blue water navies, a subject I am guessing is of interest to you. What are your top five favorites on naval strategy for the 21st Century?