Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

ARTICLE: Clerical Leaders Defy Ayatollah on Iran Election, By MICHAEL SLACKMAN and NAZILA FATHI, New York Times, July 4, 2009

Hard to underestimate the importance on this one, given Qum's central role in Shiia thinking:

An important group of religious leaders in Iran called the disputed presidential election and the new government illegitimate on Saturday, an act of defiance against the country's supreme leader and the most public sign of a major split in the country's clerical establishment.

A statement by the group, the Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qum, represents a significant, if so far symbolic, setback for the government and especially the authority of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose word is supposed to be final. The government has tried to paint the opposition and its top presidential candidate, Mir Hussein Moussavi, as criminals and traitors, a strategy that now becomes more difficult.

"This crack in the clerical establishment, and the fact they are siding with the people and Moussavi, in my view is the most historic crack in the 30 years of the Islamic republic," said Abbas Milani, director of the Iranian Studies Program at Stanford University. "Remember, they are going against an election verified and sanctified by Khamenei."

This is Qum separating itself from the weakened Supreme Leader. At some point, the clerics decide that the faith is better off out of political power than in, given the usual temptations.

This is an important step in that historical journey away from the original precepts of the revolution--so desperately failed now.

As the piece points out, Khatami is strengthened by this, but I think Larijani is the guy to watch. As Speaker of Parliament,he would be the key figure in any compromise over this historic split between the Supreme Leader and the center of the Shiia faith.