Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA: "Iran's presidential choice: It could make a big difference; The coming election in Iran could change the region drastically, for better or worse," The Economist, 21 March 2009.

Good summary of possibilities.

Funny bit up front: Iran sends up satellite and Ahmadinejad crows that Iran must now be considered a "superpower." Joke rocketing around Iranian phones by text is that the first finding from the new satellite is that the "earth is round!"

Man, does that ever remind me of unofficial Soviet humor in the 1980s.

Key analysis: Iran has gone about as far as it can in asserting regional influence by inflaming situations. To go farther is to change tactics, because continuing down this path, armed with a nuclear capacity, will naturally trigger a serious anti-Iranian Sunni front.

So the election will reflect whether Iran really does have ambition to influence beyond its borders, or is this all a big drill simply for the hardliners to retain power at home.

Despite all his bellowing at targets abroad, Ahmadinejad has really been about one, very Bushian thing: expanding the power of the presidency, historically weak in Iran.

For now, Ahmadinejad hasn't declared, and the reformist field has narrowed to two.

Like the Economist, which brings up this scenario only at the end of the article, I await the possibility of the Supreme Leader, sensing Ahmadinejad may not win, switching support to the polished, pragmatic conservative that it Tehran's current mayor, Muhammad Qalibaf.

Again, I see the reform logically appearing in conservative garb--just like Gorby once did.