historyguy99 writes:
Chapter Seven changes gears from the trinity of diplomacy, defense and development (we spent the last three chapters learning how they must be realigned). My first impression as I began reading this chapter was the connection made to the ultimate transparent network, the Internet and how it has changed the structure of the world by spreading faster than any infectious pathogen or conquering army. By comparing Internet users to the global pyramid where the rising middle-class inhabit the space between the top-down planners (empires) and the bottom billions (failed states) we are given a hand-drawn map to begin our exploration of The Rise of the SysAdmin-Industrial Complex.
THE UNDENIABLE TRAJECTORY: SUPEREMPOWER ME!
Reading this section made me think of my own six degrees of connection to America's past and what motivated my forbears to leave their familiar homelands and journey to America. My family's story has been repeated millions of times and continues with the landing of every jet and the dusty tramp of feet across our southern border. Part of that motivation is fueled by the need to solve a problem. This problem-solving ability has become the core to innovation that has marked the rise and spread of the American System's DNA as Tom Barnett explains in the preface, to all points across the globe. The concrete observation of this section is that "Every nation's average citizen does better in America than back home." Spreading globalization has led those whom we can't ever accommodate to use our system, globalization, to become super-empowered individuals at home in the form of a rising middle-class.
THE AMERICAN SYSTEM PERTURBED: THE RISE OF THE GLOBAL GUERRILLAS
Reading this section made me think that the threats we now fret over, pirates, smugglers and trans-national criminals, have always existed. In earlier times, unless directly confronted with the threat, it became the gist of adventure tales of far off lands or consigned to an occasional sermon by the local pastor about the sins of mankind. Instant communications networks have brought those threats riding alongside the same conduits that carry the staples of our consumer demands. Adjusting to those threats is the goal of this section.
THE NEW RULES: FROM "KNOW YOUR CUSTOMER" TO "KNOW YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN"
The four V's velocity, volume, variety and visibility lead off this section and are drawn from Nayan Chandra's Bound Together. Taking examples from the previous section of how "bad actors" will use all this connectivity to carve out their share of goods and services. This reminds me of how road agents used to prey on stagecoaches and rob trains in our own expanding west. In those days we countered with all types of measures, private guards, US Marshal's and the Army to secure the supply chains. Our response today requires us to go beyond the old tried and true security measures, as the threats don't hide in the rocks alongside the chain, but integrate themselves as fellow passengers to spring forth at the opportune time to strike.
Combating these new bad actors will take the collaboration of nations and individuals to share technology and innovations by adopting a structure that is connected, as equals, and willing to share and act globally.
THE NEW NORMAL: IN SEARCH OF NEW DETERRENCE
This section comes at a topically approriate time. Tom Barnett testified this week before the House Armed Services Committee about the requirements for the future capabilities of the United States maritime forces. His testimony called into sharp contrast the gulf between those who go to bed dreaming of the glory of the conflicts of their grandfathers and those who are dreaming of a future that mirrors the huge changes wrought by the connectivity described in the opening of this chapter. A paragraph that stood out for me in this section was on page 319, where a well-attuned public is defined as the best strategic deterrence in the global age. As one who has transitioned from learning by studying manuscripts in dead tree form to logging on and drawing from literally an uncounted tableau of resources, I find the contrast stunning. For me, a historian retrained in the information age, it has led to an appreciation that may be lost on the average person and caused conflict among those who still cling to the old ways and resist all mention of Wikipedia as a source for information.
THE GLOBAL ACCELERANT: THE GREAT GLOBALIZATION BUILD-OUT
The past couple of years I have traveled to Europe and Asia. To me the greatest contrast happens when you land at any one of the new air terminals that now serve the major cities around the world. They are gleaming symbols of the gateway to that nation. They are laid out to accommodate the traveler and speed them on their way. Contrast this to arriving and being processed through the Bradley Terminal at LAX, where long overdue construction now restricts most of those waiting to pick up arriving travelers to waiting outside in benches while the terminal whose area to greet incoming fights resembled a grungy big city bus terminal is being very slowly renovated.
Until we in America begin to direct more funds to rebuilding our own infrastructure the opportunities that beckon in this section are huge. It is projected that $20 trillion in infrastructure will be built in the emerging markets in the next ten years. That figure should stimulate any red-blooded American construction company to think about what Barnett writes about in this section.
First, ... get in on this huge....build-out going on in Asia...
Second, ...not being there..means no roll-up season... Meaning being in on the M&A to create the giants to build all this expansion.
Third, ...be there to partake in the...R&D that will..come with accompany this...development.
Finally, ...learning to sell to the bottom of the pyramid.
Just look at Wal-Mart as an example of a company that learned to sell in this environment.
I would counsel my son as he prepares for his future to look to using his multi-language skill combined with his acquired understanding of the world to join in exploring this next great build-out of connectivity. The rewards will be both emotional and monetary.
THE INESCAPABLE REALIGNMENT: REENGINEERING DEVELOPMENT (IN-A-BOX)
The focus in this section is to build on the previous and offer an example of several companies who have made that connection and become frontier integrators by seeking opportunities in areas of the world that are recovering from traumas caused by conflict and disaster.
Reading this section makes me wish to be younger, for if I were, the company I would love to work for would be Enterra Solutions. Tom Barnett's description of the founding and how he came to be associated is a compelling story that for me is a beacon to inspire others to join in making a better world by becoming as Tom asks the reader to imagine, the United States as a developer of a vast housing subdivision he calls the global economy. Well worth a careful reading, then let your imagination soar regarding the possibilities.
THE BETTER NORMAL: THE RISE OF THE SYSADMIN-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
For those who, since President Eisenhower, have warned against the rise of the Military-Industrial Complex, this section offers compelling hope. It would be understatement to say that I am touched by this section. Tom acknowledges my tiny contribution to this work by including a comment I made in response to a post quoting Chet Richards about our efforts in Iraq.
The bottom line of the message in this section and I dare say the whole book is that we have a very limited window to realign our grand strategy. Three points stand out. First, we can not win solely with kinetic solutions (guns). Second, we can not win alone, without peers. And finally, we can not win by concentrating on a "Global War" with only the twin opposing objectives of terrorism and democracy.
When I began to read about Lockheed Martin and how they are evolving into a global security contractor, I thought of my uncle, J.R. Janssen who worked for Lockheed for over thirty years from their early days as a fledgling airplane company to their halcyon days as a card carrying member of the military-industrial complex. Lockheed cut their teeth building the P-38 fighter, one of the contributors to defeating Japanese air power in the Pacific.
Today, Lockheed Martin has seen the future and it involves more than precision weapons of war. Their future includes building systems that make people feel secure and helps prevent the rise of conditions that can lead to war.
The integration of military applications and global security is further illustrated by the account of the development of sea traffic control, first tried in the Mediterranean and then spreading across the globe to form a network of receivers to track the movement of ships. I found it interesting that the Med was the appropriate test bed for this concept. Because of the unique geographical feature of being surrounded by mountains, much of the sea can be viewed and if at sea, landfall is visible allowing for safe transit between ports in Europe and Africa.
The final message is clear: in order to adapt to a changing world, we need to, as a nation, create a new set of rules and complexes that can meet both the challenges of opportunities other than war, while still maintaining our ability to discourage big wars.
The discussion table is open.
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Comments (9)
THE UNDENIABLE TRAJECTORY: SUPEREMPOWER ME!.
That idea that everyone does better in America is an interesting one – I am sure some people fail massively – I can speak to any number of my fellow acting school graduates – but that’s beside the point – it is the opportunity for advancement, politically socially and economically that is on offer in the US (and to some degree in countries such as my adopted country of Australia)
Here you can bask in the warm sunshine of good governance, law and order, market connectivity and industry that rewards individual empowerment and new concepts. And that is due in no small part to our easy adoption of this American System cum Globalisation template. While we may never travel to nor export ourselves to America we gain the benefits of that system in spades. It is that argument that I wield as often as I can when people de-cry globalisation as a force of destabilisation and mass exploitation. D you feel exploited?
THE AMERICAN SYSTEM PERTURBED: THE RISE OF THE GLOBAL GUERRILLAS
I have not been at all surprised at the rise of super empowered trans-national criminal syndicates. After all the idea that all criminals are stupid is erroneous. A study a few years back showed that to be a successful criminal – earn big bucks and not do jail time – required the same level of intelligence and dedication as those who become CEOs.
Criminals are in many cases the most flexible and entrepreneurial adapters. Look at cyber crime, identity theft, almost unknown and then exploding faster than outdated rule sets of law enforcement could keep up.
THE NEW RULES: FROM "KNOW YOUR CUSTOMER" TO "KNOW YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN"
This I have faith in, while I mentioned above that rule sets for law enforcement have not kept pace, that is bureaucratic not desire. I know a number of smart cops and their on to this is as many ways as they can. Inter-agency cooperation remains the highest priority here I feel. If we cannot talk amongst ourselves, internally within our own nation states, how then will we be able to open dialogue with foreign law enforcement and military operations that are vital to combat crime and terrorism that by its new nature disregards the almost outdated concept of a border?
Trust as I see it is the biggest hurdle here. The idea that someone else comes onto your patch and tells you how to update your tools and techniques, insists that their operational methodology is better, and basically tells you that you’re out of touch. Hardly the way to build trust, but in many cases this will be true. Thos trans-national criminals and other global guerrillas will be found across the frontiers, in places were those with the primary responsibility for catching them will be outdated and out of touch with modern methods. That is not to say however that they will be out of touch with the problem. So Mil to Mil and Pol to Pol training becomes even more important as we seek to keep the wagon train of globalisation safe until it reaches harbour.
THE NEW NORMAL: IN SEARCH OF NEW DETERRENCE
Ahh yes Wikipedia – still outlawed by university as a source for information – well it can be a little dodgy at times. That super empowered individual is amazing, and technology is one of the primary drivers behind that new identify. I have seen my mother change for paper card patient files to a laptop and Skype.
As Tom mentioned those that dream of conquest of the past I shuddered to think that anyone would dream of repeating some of the bloody mistakes that torn whole sections of last century to pieces. To my mind glory comes form an end to conflict and an end to useless suffering.
I spent some time thinking about the idea of new deterrents. And this is still an unformed thought but economic sanctions – so often blacklisted as the paper tiger of determents – in this growing age of interconnected economies perhaps there is some more weight to their effectiveness.
Or maybe its not economic but rather a sanction that send s the country in question to a time out form globalisations benefits – of course that raises the idea that that concept plays into the hands of many of the worlds rouges and henchmen – but perhaps, just maybe it triggers the anger in the growing middle class, so close to achieving connectivity that they finally grow tired of the enforced disconnectedness and seek an alternative.
THE GLOBAL ACCELERANT: THE GREAT GLOBALIZATION BUILD-OUT
Being part way through my Security/Terrorism Studies BA and part way through my course in project management I find myself griped by an excitement as I read through this chapter and the idea that maybe I got it right this time. The next 20 years will see the roll out of what Tom describes here, and those that can see the benefits offered by globalisations security and economic guardian ship will be in a position to not just reap benefits themselves but actually assist in making the world as a whole a better place.
I discussed this with my eldest brother who lives in bonny Edinburgh and does money stuff, he asked me if I was planning on joining the Private Enterprise Peace Corps. He meant that in the best sense and it reflects what the world needs. Privately propelled movement assisted projects that will place infrastructure where it is needed, connected the Gap to the Core and thus place security, for us and them squaring on the table.
Having just watched the last season of West Wing again – I’m thinking about building roads.
THE INESCAPABLE REALIGNMENT: REENGINEERING DEVELOPMENT (IN-A-BOX)
Ditto and then some. For me it’s about getting the credentials and then looking for a company that pays well, and that’s not just about the money – the pay comes in what they do and how they do it and for what reason and where. Give me a company that actively uses globalisation tools and techniques to shrink the gap – in any way and I am there.
Enterra’s Australasian/PacRim outpost?
THE BETTER NORMAL: THE RISE OF THE SYSADMIN-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
Those three key points that are listed are so valid. After a weekend spent arguing with a myopic adult who stressed the need to kill everyone with a copy of the Koran just so his kids could be safe – while ignoring that his kids went to school with a lost of Ali’s and Sistani’s- was maddening. Ask a grunt if they want to shoot their way out of this one and I have, the answer is a plain and simple no.
The great global challenge will be defeating those forces that are hell bent on disconnecting their populations from the benefits offered by globalisation. But we cannot expect to do that alone. I am proud that both the country of my birth and my adopted country offer continued support to American operations. I am equally proud of the work Australia has done in places like East Timor. Mistakes will happen, but they can be avoided with careful planning and openness and admission.
Get the gap jobs, show them the possibilities on offer – accept that many of them will opt out, and may never come around, but for the few that do opt on, the many will opt in, the benefits are just to apparent.
That a company such as LM is considering a change in the way that they do business it so heartening. I looked at there IS&GS section of their web site and was amazed by how many applications that have that are useable in terms of sysadmin and gap shrinkage. – They’re on the list to email resume to!
Posted by David Sutton
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March 29, 2009 10:24 PM
Hi David,
I think this chapter touched a lot of us the way it did you. I just finished listening to the podcast of Tom's interview with Hugh Hewitt and I think that even Hugh was verging on joining Enterra. I judge that on having listened to Hewitt for a number of years and by now am use to the inflections in his voice when he really get's behind an idea.
Speaking to the comments about doing well in America, probably is best measured against someone coming from so where that does not have our mutually shared economic system.
As for criminals, using history as a guide, I am reminded of a study of priacy in the Mediterranean back in antiquity and it was described as just another form of commerce, where the pirate took only so much so as to keep the supply chain flowing and insure future opportunities. His booty then became the grist of other transactions fueling the level of commerce. Takes a smart guy to figure that out and make it pay.
Ah, Wikipedia, the scourge of professors everywhere, even though it is now used by more people to source than any other guide. I get students all the time who cite it and I counsul then to use it as a open guide to then go futher and mole out the citable sources that usually accompany any topic.
When I was reading your response to the global build out I was thinking that you would make a good candidate for a company like Enterra. Low and behold, in the next section you endorsed your availability to man a pac/rim outpost..I think you'd make a good catch by your understanding of how globalization brings more to those they reach than the originators. As I noted, If I were thirty years younger, I'd be there with you trying to find a job with someone like Enterra.
Posted by historyguy99 | March 29, 2009 11:48 PM
Hi all:
THE NETWORK REALIGNMENT: The Rise of the SysAdmin Industrial Complex
Bravo, maestro. Will be interesting to see further data about resultant cases, characterizations and models. Chapter topics might benefit from feeds.
THE UNDENIABLE TRAJECTORY: SUPEREMPOWER ME!
There is tremendous optimism among the various continents about growth. Plenty of tags are suggested. Also see “social media”.
THE AMERICAN SYSTEM PERTURBED: THE RISE OF GLOBAL GUERRILLAS
Robb has also been following rise of local currencies. Also see Naim’s “Illicit: : how smugglers, traffickers and copycats are hijacking the global economy” 2007. Also see news of “ghostnet”.
THE NEW RULES FROM “KNOW YOUR CUSTOMER” TO “KNOW YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN”
Will be opportunities in R&D to supply unmet needs. Also see news of RFID applied to containers including those for nuclear materials.
THE NEW NORMAL: IN SEARCH OF NEW DETERRENCE
Search subtitle reminds one of trends, e.g. Google and competitors in other media types and data mining. Movies may wag the long tail, e.g. “Echelon Conspiracy” or “Eagle Eye”. Also see Pentland’s “Honest Signals” 2007 about network intelligence. Also see news of “A-space”.
THE GLOBAL ACCELERANT: THE GREAT GLOBALIZATION BUILD-OUT
Need some standards, possibly derived from practices having most market share and professional groups. Regulatory can be oppressive for new industry, though especially needed for safety. Open-source competes on cost.
THE INESCAPABLE REALIGNMENT: REENGINEERING DEVELOPMENT (IN-A-BOX ™)
Hope for great success. Obvious question might be whether plans to acquire second-biggest firms and corner these industries. Might discuss whether or not cloud computing relevant or what alternate expectations are. Other trends of interest might include green power, robotics, bio, nano, cognitive, and so on.
THE BETTER NORMAL: THE RISE OF THE SYSADMIN INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
Additional long-term projections might include effects on education, health, etc. Also determine ways to derive wisdom from mass of data and knowledge. Fun to guess what other apps, utilities and startups might arise. Meantime, can find enthusiastic rock-and-roll and hip-hop feats in honor.
Posted by John Rodrigues
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March 30, 2009 12:05 PM
HG99--thanks for your supportive response regarding my comments in the discussion on Chapter 6. I am indeed a closet historian, but science is my day job...your reference to "the frontier spirit of [my] forebearers" is strangely on the mark...
I think you make a great point just above regarding Wikipedia. Their authorial policy states more than once "no original research," so Wikipedia is by definition and design a secondary (or beyond) source. In students' academic (and professionals') research, not even mentioning the scourge of plagiarism, there is a work ethic to be recovered in hunting down primary and, at least, contemporary sources. That Wikipedia was and is really intended to facilitate that work ethic by centralizing access to primary sources, and for that reason remains free to all, seems irrelevant when the temptation to subvert that ethic becomes overwhelming to many researchers who just "don't have the time" to think for themselves. While Tom cites many others in his books, his own work as well as those sources can be cited to the depth of the student's research, but the Wikipedia page on PNM is not an appropriate citation source. (In fact, the student is better served to start with the original Esquire article that led to PNM the book, and then work forward and backward from there, but I digress.) In my own blog posts, I explicitly reference Wikipedia when I use it, and then only as background material for something else on which I consistently prefer primary sources. Then the reader who wants more background or explanation can go right to one of the best places to find an overview and further resources...
I really had only two comments to make on Chapter 7 of GP: [1] Tom makes reference to "draining the swamp" several times throughout the text, including this chapter. Each time I am reminded of the "Great Dismal Swamp Company" that was established by Mr. George Washington either in his inter-war years or after his retirement, if I'm not mistaken. [2] Tom has another golden vein of wisdom to impart to all of us here, especially those of us just coming into our own careers and with lofty ambitions, if you read it closely enough: "Good grand strategy goes with the major flows of the age. It exploits the technologies that must appear instead of waiting on ones...that may never appear. It tries to get in front of major resource and money flows..." and then the last word any reader of Tom's work needs to know: "At its heart, good grand strategy is both economically deterministic and technologically opportunistic." (GP, p. 315) My goodness, what couldn't be done with that attitude and approach in so many sectors and applications to what the people around the world need today in order to realize their potential...
Posted by Matthew Garcia | March 30, 2009 3:11 PM
Pirates, the reality is a group of blood thirty, often poverty stricken and unemployed groups of men. That being said I am sure that somewhere someone is getting very rich from the sustained surge of piracy related hijackings off the cost of Somalia.
My mother lives in Cornwall, a county in England that gave birth to the raspy “Yaar” vocals of the pirates – its crazy, each time I visit my mum I end up in stiches.
In Cornwall they have the same nostalgia for the pirates that Australian’s have for bushrangers.
It is interesting how distance, time and being safely removed from the actuality of something horrifically crimminal can lend it a romantic air. No matter how romantic they look to us now, that you Mr Depp, it only takes the report that Fairfax’s Melbourne paper, The Age picked up from the UK to remind us about the reality.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/widow-reveals-holiday-piracy-hell-after-husband-has-throat-slit-20090326-9bu2.html
That’s why the cooperation seen around the edges of this issue so heartens me. The idea that India, China, the US and other NATO representatives could gather together in an effort to disrupt a trans-national criminal operation is amazing.
And yes Wikipedia – It is so great for ideas, not as great as a peer reviewed and academically verified source of information.
Posted by David Sutton
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March 30, 2009 4:46 PM
Hi all,
Great comments by all, John your wiki responses stimulate my old boomer brain and offer many points of consideration. Another point to consider as we contemplate the global guerrillas is the rise of the 2.0 bloggers calling attention to potential threats before the MSM even gets it's shoes on.
I see the rise of emulators of D in a B, and of Lockheed Martin as the next generation of civic minded seekers climb the corporate ladder and turn their companies to towards the bottom of the pyramid.
Matt, thanks for the ack. I have followed your blog, so I know a bit about your interests and how they dovetail into finding ways to make the future more sustainable. I especially like you bringing forth Tom's quote from page 315. That strategy has motivated humankind to always seek a better way. Before money, it was the arrow to take bigger game and get warmer clothing for journeys. This repeated itself over and over again for better or worse until we are again given the choice of stagnation or seek out the "money flow of the age" and act.
David, being your mom lives in Cornwall gives you and I a degree of seperation. My maternal grandmother's father came to America from Cornwall in 1868 to be a mining engineer in Virgina City Comstock Mines. I agree that piracy is a scourge that offers cooporation among the world's navys. In fact at last count there are over 50 ships from dozens of countries patrolling the of the coast of east Africa. Just tjhink of the cost to keep them patrolling. Half that cost could probably pay the pirates to stay home and drink and chase damsels.
H/T to galrahn of informationdissemination.blogspot.com
for this update:
5th Fleet Focus: Order of Battle
Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group
USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69)
USS Gettysburg (CG 64) (CTF-151
USS Vicksburg (CG 69)
USS Bainbridge (DDG 96)
USS Stout (DDG 55)
USNS Big Horn (T-AO 198)
USNS Sacagawea (T-AKE 2)
Boxer Expeditionary Strike Group
USS Boxer (LHD 4) (CTF-151)
USS New Orleans (LPD 18)
USS Comstock (LSD 45)
USS Lake Champlain (CG 57) (CTF-151)
USS Chung-Hoon (DDG 93) (7th Fleet)
USCGC Boutwell (WHEC 719)
EU NAVFOR
HS Psara (F454) - Command
FGS Rheinland-Pfalz (F 209)
FS Floréal (F730)
FS Jeanne d'Arc (R97)
FS Georges Leygues (D640)
SPS Victoria (F 82)
FGS Emden (F210) (SNMG1)
Commandante Bettica (P492)
FGS Spessart (A1442)
Standing NATO Maritime Group 1
NRP Alvares Cabral (F331)
USS Halyburton (FFG 40)
SPS Blas de Lezo (F103)
HNLMS De Zeven Provinciën (F802)
HMCS Winnipeg (FFH 338)
Combined Task Force 150
FGS Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (F 218)
FS Jean-de-Vienne (D643)
PNS Khaibar (F183)
HMS Cumberland (F85)
FS Commandant Ducuing (F795)
RFA Wave Knight (A389)
Combined Task Force 151
See USS Boxer above
See USS Gettysburg above
USNS Lewis and Clark (T-AKE 1)
HDMS Absalon (L16)
TCG Giresun (F 491) (CTF-151)
HMS Portland (F79) (CTF-151)
In Theater
Ocean 6
FS La Boudeuse (P683)
FS Var (A608)
FS Saphir (S602)
HMS Richmond (F239)
HMAS Warramunga (FFH 152)
KD Sri Indera Sakti (A1503)
INS Tabar (F44)
INS Beas (F24)
HMS Makkah (814) (RSNF)
HMS Al Dammal (816) (RSNF)
RBNS Sabha (FFG 90)
PLAN Haikou (D171)
PLAN Wuhan (D169)
PLAN Weishanhu (A887)
USS Milius (DDG 69)
USS Scout (MCM 8)
USS Gladiator (MCM 11)
USS Ardent (MCM 12)
USS Dexterous (MCM 13)
USS Typhoon (PC 5)
USS Sirocco (PC 6)
USS Chinook (PC 9)
USS Firebolt (PC 10)
USS Whirlwind (PC 11)
USCGC Baranof (WPB 1318)
USCGC Maui (WPB 1304)
USCGC Adak (WPB 1333)
USCGC Aquidneck (WPB 1309)
USCGC Wrangell (WPB 1332)
USCGC Monomoy (WPB 1326)
HMS Atherstone (M38)
HMS Chiddingfold (M37)
HMS Grimsby (M108)
HMS Pembroke (M107)
USNS Tippecanoe (T-AO 199)
USNS Catawba (T-ATF 168)
RFA Diligence (A132)
RFA Cardigan Bay (L3009)
JS Sazanami (DD-113)
JS Samidare (DD 106)
JS Ariake (DD 109)
JS Towada (AOE 422)
ROKS Munmu the Great (DDH 976)
Posted by historyguy99 | March 31, 2009 1:30 AM
Hi,
THE UNDENIABLE TRAJECTORY: SUPEREMPOWER ME!
I think the big thing is the dawning of recognition that there are tremendous business opportunities for countries that were not connected to the world economy in the past 25 years. New markets to sell, increase in world travel. The public certainly is aware it is just simply the lag time for politics to catch up to economics.
I wonder how Asia will behave once all the low end manufacturing goods will be outsourced to middle east/central asia and africa? Will they be globalizations largest critics or facilitate that flow easier than the US/Europe. It's not like they won't bump up against patent protection and anti-immigrant sentimant that the US experiences from timer to time. I often wondered how China, India, and Russia would react to having more ethnic groups inside their countries, we'll see in the next 20 years!
THE AMERICAN SYSTEM PERTURBED: THE RISE OF THE GLOBAL GUERRILLAS
I think the person who has the hardest job in Iraq is either the anti-corruption official or the person that has the link between justice and finance to reclaim economic damage through a legitamate court system. The reason I say this is that a pirate can just go out and kill a judge, leaving the entire system weaker. But, an improved police and judicial system essentially leaves that pirate with no place to hide.
There have been pirates in africa and terrorists in europe/middle east/america/south america for years. We see more focus on this due to enlarged trade between all those areas. I can imagine how serious the response would be once food is shipped from Nigeria to the US and someone hijacks the boat, it will happen a few times before the navies come around and help the armies squash that insurgency followed by economic connectivity for the disaffected. The difference now is that all of africa and the middle east don't seem so far away anymore and that is quite unsettling to many people.
Anyone interested in seeing improvment in the world from the civil war to the present that isn't so scary should check out gapminder.org
THE NEW RULES: FROM "KNOW YOUR CUSTOMER" TO "KNOW YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN"
Tom's summary of global food chains of the future is a good reminder that if we provide all tracking devices first to desired nations we want to do business, we have a huge say in all future business in the country.
Right now, there is a pending free trade agreement with countries in Southern Africa (South Africa, Botswana, Swaziland, Lesotho, and Namibia). I will write to ag secretary Vilsack about food and meat sensor technology for those countries and include both Nigeria and Kenya as well. All that would take is some tampering, and whole shipments wouldn't get sold. That would bring security quickly.
THE NEW NORMAL: IN SEARCH OF NEW DETERRENCE
I enjoy the wikileaks articles since of the exposure brought by such secrecy currently enjoyed the the US Intelligence and Military. The premise is about control and justification of any new projects without any accountability of military use in the field.
I don't think there is anything wrong about keeping capabilities secret, but there is simply no open comparison between what the united states does militarily or intelligence-wise compared to other nations.
Also, it is just the pits to see the US struggle in some desert or mountain region against forces 1/10th of their size lead by a handful of individuals, while justifying billions on a new submarine or missle system.
It is also sad to see the experts really try to scare people on both China and Russia just so they can be paid instead of improving our counter-insurgency and nation building capacity. These are not easy economic times for anyone, why should they be paid without justification for weapons we will never use.
THE GLOBAL ACCELERANT: THE GREAT GLOBALIZATION BUILD-OUT
Does anyone have an opinion on how much effort it will take to get Chinese, Russian, Indian, and Brazilian peacekeepers on board? Are there current political obstacles that would prevent these million man armies from helping situations on their borders or sitting around and simply training for another big scenario? Would they have to be pushed in a business sense as in: we want peacekeepers in Afghanistan and in return ease patent restrictions on HIV pharmaceuticals?
Does the world have to make more money to ease back on anti-immigrant sentiment in the old core or do we just have to get older to ease up and make a trasparent process everyone can use?
Will medicalizing drug addiction through vaccines take off or will they take a back seat to just monitoring borders.
I like the infrastructure buildout here and abroad. Does anyone see labor exchange programs for workers here to travel to south america or southeast asia for infrastructure work, or will that be performed by domestic workers?
THE INESCAPABLE REALIGNMENT: REENGINEERING DEVELOPMENT (IN-A-BOX)
I really enjoyed this section and would only add the rosetta stone and multilingual education should be offered everywhere and be a mandatory part of 40% of new positions here in the US. We need to get better, and a new language is the simplest way.
THE BETTER NORMAL: THE RISE OF THE SYSADMIN-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
This will be seen that the US can do a successful post conflict occupation if forced. I see the next one possibly in peaceful reunification of Korea if Kim Jong-Il passes away suddenly. Boots on the ground from South Korea and China. Money from Japan. US/AUS/NZ there for any high-end conflict, and Russia with the gas pipeline, just like BFA.
Otherwise, others will keep sitting on the sidelines.
Thanks.
Derek Bergquist
Posted by Derek Bergquist | April 1, 2009 5:16 PM
Hi Derek,
Glad to see your posts on this chapter. Your lead off comment about how C,I,R react to having many ethnic groups inside their countries. I think that China and India due to their own population constraints will not see mass immigration. Both countries now are chock full of ethnic minorities just from the scope of their size.
The breakdown of the rule and respect of law will unleash the dogs of opportunity. Sadly we saw a little of that last week when in the wake of four policemen being killed in Oakland, CA. some members of the community were protesting "police burtality" and praising the killer as a "warrior"..
I see another take on the global supply chain, the growth of "American OPEC" rebranded as the Organization of Agriculture Exporting Countries OAEC...food suppliers of the world. We and the Canadians are in the forfront to gain by this renewable resource and then making sure of its integrity.
Getting the Chinese onboard in Afghanistan is a long shot as is getting Russia. The latest comments from the Chinese is they are not going to deploy their forces outside their country unless it's to protect their supply chain, IE navy to Arabian Sea to fight pirates.
Here's a thought. My son is half Persian and speaks English, Farsi, and Spanish from school. I would say that among my history classes half speak another language from their parents. Vietnamese, Chinese, Spanish and Farsi to name a few. If we are smart as a nation we harness that strength and use it to encourage learning languages to understand the culture of our target markets.
Posted by historyguy99 | April 2, 2009 11:39 PM
Looking at Derek’s question about peacekeepers. Just some harried thoughts from a Friday afternoon:
There’s an interesting article by Patel and Capezza on SWJ about US/China cop-op work in Afghanistan.
Points out that China is really looking to get as much as they can from a win-win situation. In terms of Afghanistan that looks like getting copper mining rights without having to put boots on ground.
Now, what would happen if the copper fields opened up, large infrastructure was put in place and then militants began to target Chinese nations working as technical advisers, or as security for those fields?
Maybe at that stage, when their financial stakes at threat, and possibly the worst case scenario being body bags sent back to China, we could see a larger security force placed in theatre.
Getting that larger Chinese force structured in such as way as to complement the ongoing NATO/US operations, and perform duties that were not in contrast or solely directed toward self preservation of assets, that would be the big win here.
The same goes for the others, until they see their expansion plans threatened by the same combatative elements that currently arrays themselves ageist globalisation as a whole they have little incentive to place boot son the ground. The US does the heavy lifting and they reap the benefits form that security bubble, if and when that bubble is strong enough to hold.
Honestly – I can see why they act in such as way. Its self preservation and resource management at the thin end of the wedge.
http://smallwarsjournal.com/mag/2009/04/assessing-prospects-for-uschin.php
Posted by David Sutton
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April 3, 2009 12:15 AM