Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

ARTICLE: "Where's the Breadbasket Bailout? As international markets reel in the credit crunch, the food crisis worsens," by Ariana Eunjung Cha and Stephanie McCrummen, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 3-9 November 2008.

Vast majority of new hunger found in Asia and Africa--as in, virtually all of it. The percentage increase in the cost of imported food from 06 to 07 was 29% worldwide, with Core countries experiencing 33% rises to the Gap's 23%, but since food costs can be 80% of household spending inside Gap and only 1/5th in Core, there's simply no comparison.

So yeah, oil prices drop, but not food prices.

That's why I argue in Great Powers that, in the 21st century, the global food nets eclipse the global energy nets as the most important flow. Think also bio terror and climate change.

In short, we go from a world in which energy is harvested in one place and consumed in another to one in which it's food that experiences such great movement--a reversal of roles. In this century, energy will increasingly be harvested and consumed locally, while it's food that's harvested in one place and moved great distances to consumers.