Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

OP-ED: Behind the Bluster, Russia Is Collapsing, By Murray Feshbach, Washington PostOctober 5, 2008; B03

Feshbach was a legend in the field of Soviet studies all the way back to when I was in grad school. He has been sounding these sorts of alarms for many years. His analysis goes a long way to explaining the Soviet Union's collapse, Russia's difficulties in the 1990s, and now why we shouldn't get too bent out of shape over Georgia and hyperbolic descriptions of "petrocracy."

What Feshbach says about Russia, much the same can be said about another oil dictatorship that we're supposed to freak out about--Iran (birth dearth, brain drain, etc.).

Truth is, whenever you pull back the curtain on these alleged scary monsters, you find a lot of weakness being hidden and abetted by the oil money, which is a "curse" in terms of its distorting effect virtually everywhere it goes--including the dreaded "Dutch disease."

Again, supply does not define power in globalization. Demand does.

(Thanks: Mohamed Ibn Guadi)