POST: War in Georgia: Misreading Ossetia -- Chronology Matters, By Patrick Armstrong, Russia Blog, August 10, 2008
Good post from the Russia Blog. My favorite line involves the "same lazy imitation of existing memes" re: Russia, echoing my bit about resorting to Cold War interpretations when it's not like anybody in the West is that eager to run this part of the world.
Given that reality, the question isn't, "How do we counter Russian imperialism?" But rather, "How do we get Russia in the right place regarding its role here?"
When I think Core-Gap (old concept here), my original construct was: clear rules inside the Core on war and peace, few if any inside the Gap, and a clear need for an avowed rule set for those situations when the Core feels the need to intervene inside the Gap (which happens a lot).
There is the tendency to think this situation "redefines" the intra-Core rule set. It does not. It simply highlights the lack of progress in generating the Core-wide rule set regarding interventions in the Gap. We are somewhat guilty in this regard. We have modeled behavior for Russia that they further interpret in ways we don't like. But like my wife talking about my older son ("Where do you think he gets that?"), we have to realize that making primacy a strategic goal has had its costs under Bush-Cheney. We spawn imitators over time, and we won't like that pathway one bit, because out imitators will do things (big surprise!) in ways that totally benefit themselves and make things harder for everybody else.
And yeah, we've been way too guilty of that ourselves.
In short, we see a symptom here of something larger. We can deal with that larger reality or we can all point at the symptom and say, "That's the real problem!"
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Comments (4)
My concern is that dependence upon globalization/ connectivity can and will be used by nations with geopolitical designs, as a weapon -- a tool -- to render other nations hesitant and/or incapable of significant response to aggression.
Posted by Bill C. | August 12, 2008 6:20 PM
“But like my wife talking about my older son ("Where do you think he gets that?"), we have to realize that making primacy a strategic goal has had its costs under Bush-Cheney.”
If I understood PNM and BFA correctly, the US is the military Leviathan because it has primacy and is in no danger of losing this primacy. Clearly using a primacy as needed for its intended purpose can not help but demonstrate a valuing of this primacy and an interest in maintaining it for its intended purpose. The only real challenge in all this is maintaining a consistency and clarity of humanity, worthiness, will, and purpose. What exactly did Bush-Cheney do that was wrong.
Posted by Gilbert Garza | August 12, 2008 7:20 PM
Interesting comment; "How do we counter Russian imperialism?" But rather, "How do we get Russia in the right place regarding its role here?"
This has a multitude of implications. First, i should ask; how are you defining "Right Place"?
apparently most writing on the current state of affairs, still see russia as the entity it was during the cold war. Russia has an identity crisis, its not a population of 300 plus million, its devolved to 145 million and that devolution in itself, defines russian actions, as ego projection. mother russia has morphed to become another russia. Its former diversly similar identities now mostly reject her. This rejection, is based on experience and shows itself in overt ways across each former appendage, now separate.
russian identity is the forward issue. assigning to russia a "right Place" might be the wrong thing to do.
Posted by dave whitesel | August 13, 2008 8:53 AM
I reflected a bit on your comments about Russia / Georgia here at FT Leavenworth yesterday. You hit the nail on the head. In their minds, they are surrounded by potentially hostile or meddling states. Their former client / buffer states have defected to Western Europe by either joining the EU, joining NATO, or by aspiring to join one or both. Their time to reassert themselves in the near abroad is now before NATO expands further and while the U.S is tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Posted by todd terral | August 13, 2008 4:18 PM