ARTICLE: Georgia War Shows 'Weak' Russia, U.S. Official Says, By Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, August 28, 2008; Page A14
Objectively, I agree with the analysis, although I think he overstates it for the purpose of messaging to Moscow.
State people I interact with cite the "two czars" problem that needs to shake out: Putin clearly starting this with military and Medvedev trying to catch up with the government. The oligarchs, it is said, are made quite nervous by the conflict, being uncertain about how their wealth and connections have been put at risk for no apparent near-term economic gain, as it remains unclear if this was actually a serious energy play by Moscow or just sloppy/exuberant targeting.
So while popular with the unthinking--and uninvested--masses, the verdict is still out among Moscow's siloviki as to whether this effort was worth the byproducts.
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Comments (2)
The most effective sanctions against the Russians will not be active negative moves taken against them but rather passive lack of action such as putting off WTO membership and active economic and military assistance to Ukraine and Georgia.
A lot of that is things that EU nations can do. For example, as Poland integrates F-16s into its air force, it can ship MIGs and SUs to Ukraine and Georgia. The same goes for tanks. there are hundreds of Leopard 1 tanks in Europe and Australia that could be sent to Ukraine and Georgia at minimum cost, thus taking them off the used tank market and improving the market for Leopard 2s. If the Euros were to pay to send some Leopards to Fort Irwin and equip them with the laser tag do-dads, it would make it a lot easier to train Leopard tank equipped forces to much higher standards.
At the civilian level, depending on Russian natural gas looks a lot more risky than it seemed before August. France could build a lot of nuclear plants in eastern European countries and the demand for Russian natural gas would shrivel up.
At the mundane economic level, the EU could lower trade barriers to importing Georgian wine. So could the United States, for that matter. While we are at it, send some professors from the University of California, Davis department of Oenoligy and Viticulture to look at improving the Georgian wine industry the way that they did for California. If more dollars and Euros flow into Georgia, it will be more difficult and expensive to maintain separatist areas in Abkazia and South Osettia when those people could improve their standard of living by becoming part of Georgia.
These things probably should have been done years ago and might have avoided the recent unpleasantness but it is still worth doing them now to avoid future unpleasantness.
Posted by Mark in Texas | August 30, 2008 9:14 PM
I agree with Mark. I think Pres Bush should speak directly to the Russian people, expressing:
1) his desire for good relations between America and the Russian people
2) his deep admiration and respect for Russian culture, history, tradition, Russian strengths and achievement, and the Russian people
3) why he thinks Russia's policies with respect to Georgia are not in Russia's interests
4) firmly and softly explain how America's actions would be affected by Russian actions (stated very matter of fact, without a threatening voice or mannerism)
Posted by anand | September 2, 2008 1:15 PM