Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

I'm surprised nobody has drawn the parallel to Grenada. A blustery show of force in the great power's backyard designed to dispel an image of weakness created by a predecessor. Substitute Putin for Reagan and Yeltsin for Carter, and that's it. Made Americans feel good, but hardly something that shook the foundations of the world.

"remove your money from Russian companies and make them feel some pain."
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This is a common misconception. Every share of stock in a public company will be owned by someone. The company does not care who owns the shares. The value of the shares will be largely determined by its fundamentals; there is little evidence that "socially responsible" has any real-world impact -- even on the stock-option gluttons running US corps (far more sensitive to the share price than managers in most other nations).
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Also, Russia has a large capital surplus. Russian corps do not need western capital, let alone funds from the the world's largest borrower and debtor (i.e., our current account deficit means that any investments in Russia must be borrowed elsewhere).

Let me see. The anti-missiles are supposed to defend against Iranian missiles. Do you suppose OBL is not laughing quite as hard as you think?

Now what can we expect from the Russian dust up? Reduced access to Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan?

Now just where might increased access be obtained? Clue: the name of the country was mentioned above and the first letter was not "R" or "A" or "P".

We still don't know the motivation for our missile defense system push in Europe since other methods to contain Iran and like possible threats would be quicker, cheaper and have less political issues. So the first question should be why the political and media communities don't ask the appropriate questions?

Another question not asked is why didn't we notice and advise Georgia of the Russian build up that would react to Georgia's gamble? It is not easy to mobilize tanks, trucks and heavy artillery in the terrain of that area. We have more than adequate surveillance capability.

But then no one ever asked why China and Russia did not advise Saddam Hussein where Bush I military was really locating its armed cavalry and mechanized infantry forces for Gulf War I. Sometimes unasked questions indicate likely answers.

Big war crowd will probably be very happy with recent Rand study also, entitled:

"US Should Re-Think War on Terrorism Strategy to Deal with Resurgent Al Qaida" (July 29th).

Therein, it is noted that military force was effective in defeating only 7% of the 648 terrorists groups studied (period 1968 - 2006).

Study says most successful techniques are:

- 43% via transition to political process.

- 40% through police and intelligence services apprehending or killing terrorist leaders.

The current crop of Russian leaders are well steeped in the Communist Theory of the Final Crisis of Capitalism. Even if they don't totally buy into that failed ideology, they surely must "feel" its influence in their bones just as John McCain "feels" that the Cold War II is upon us. Putin and Medvedev have watched as America's "Crisis" unfolds in Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran (for the Russians it's undoubtedly all about the Oil) and as the "Financial Crisis" among the so-called "Imperialistic" states worsens (note the unprecidented steps that the Fed and Congress are taking to right the debt laden and listing economic ship). I think they see the West at a tipping point, and they intend to give it a nudge wherever they can. That's their Grand Strategy. For them, the Fall has already occured and Mother Russia has risen from Reagan's "scrap heap of history" with a revitalized energy and a clear destiny.

If any of Putin's people have read Dr. Barnett's books, the Barnett Analysis doesn't seem to have influenced them yet. The same goes for McCain's people. However, some of Obama's advisors seem to be in tune with the Long War. The upcoming election will be interesting.

If ever there was any doubt that the jihadis are "what's left" rather than "what's next," look how quickly we forget about them when the chance for a scuffle with a proper enemy pops up. If we equip ourselves for the wrong war again, the terrorists win.

Once you get past the snark in the first paragraphs of that NY Times piece, it states pretty clearly what the intentions of the missile defense system in Poland are.

Ten missiles are completely inadequate to deal with a Russian missile attack but could defeat any capability that Iran is likely to have for the next decade or so. In order to have any chance of European nations participating in economic or political sanctions against Iran, it is necessary to protect them against blackmail inherent in the existence of Iranian nuclear missiles.

The Polish intentions are not identical to those of the United States. The Poles are worried about Russia, not Iran. The hold up in the negotiations has been that the Poles wanted hardware to defend themselves against the attack that the Russians continue to explicitly threaten them with and an assurance that they US will guarantee their defense against them being overrun the way Georgia was, even if the rest of NATO drags its feet. In the aftermath of the Georgia unpleasantness, the US negotiators suddenly stopped giving so much consideration to the emotions of the Russians and the deal quickly followed.

There is very little US trade with Russia and after Putin drove out the oil companies, not much investment there either. About the only way that the US can cause the Russians any economic pain is to come up with a way to make petroleum less valuable. My personal feeling is that Robert Zubrin's plan is the most promising way to make that happen.

http://www.energyvictory.net/

The C-Span video gives a good overview if you don't have time to read the book.

Maybe Usama Bin Laden is realizing that after the USA is defeated and broke, the Russian bear will still be non-Muslim and will have their gloves off. Being closer to home, Russia may pose more of a threat to UBL than GI Joe in the future, robbing him of more sleep.

"You want the connectivity, and then you let the market express its displeasure."

For that to work, you gotta let 'em into the market. At present, 90% of US imports from Russia are minerals or other raw materials. Not much leverage there for Mr. Market. "Bad boy Russia! Now I won't buy your oil and aluminum!"

And then Russia stops buying machinery, vehicles, aircraft, etc., and Treasuries, from us.

I think a US-Russia trade war hits us harder than it hits them...

1) I'd like to suggest that the Russians have never responded well to anything. When it comes to government, without fail, theirs has always been a history of brutality, even against their own citizens, and of an empire mentality. If it's not controlled by Russia, they are not happy. They have been invited at all levels to participate in the world - and look what they come up with.

2) I'd also like to point out that Muslims in the Russian Federation are increasing in population, while "ethnic" Russians are decreasing. Moscow is not Russia. There is a very short life span, and poverty is widespread.

3) I would also like to point out that Russia coordinated the attack against Georgia on several fronts, not just military, but also cyberattacks, and - a sell-off of U.S. Bonds.

At a loss.

I hope they keep selling what they own at a loss. It is a "cut off your nose to spite your face" mentality.