ARTICLE: "Bowing out: Electoral humiliation marks the end of the Chen Shui-bian era," The Economist, 19 January 2008, p. 41.
Chen's Dem Progressive Party loses big time in the parliamentary elections, with the old Kuonmintang taking 70% of the seats.
Mr. Ma, current KMT head, is expected to stroll to victory in the 22 March elections.
Bad news for the Taiwan scenario crowd in the PNT, and those scary China naval experts in Newport!
Boo hoo, say I. We'll always have Hong Kong!
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Comments (2)
LOL. The international media have no clue. Tom, don't be surprised if Hsieh wins a narrow but solid victory on March 22. For one thing, although it hasn't been reported in the international media, except by Max Hirsch of Kyodo News, the DPP saw a nearly 8% rise in votes; the KMT legislative vote has been stagnant since 1998 (over the same period the DPP legislative vote total has risen by 800K votes). What really happened was that the districting arrangements, the winner-take-all format, and the at-large seat system all favored the KMT, inflating 60% of the votes into 80% of the seats. The KMT's iron grip on local clan and patronage networks, it's 5-1 cash advantage, and its grip on the local media really paid off.
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Posted by Michael Turton | February 21, 2008 7:17 PM
The DPP went up, but it seems that most of those voters are coming from the TSU rather than the middle. As far as I can tell, the blue/green divide has been static since about 1995 with the main new element being new young voters. I don't see any reason why they would favor Hsieh, but if he pulls of a victory it will be from them.
The electoral system was the main thing that was responsible for the massive KMT win, but the DPP agreed to it. My guess is that Chen believed that Taiwan was slowly drifting toward green and so decided to gamble on an electoral system that would turn a small green majority into a commanding majority in the legislature. He lost the gamble, and this shows the dangers of believing your own propaganda and not constantly questioning your assumptions about what is going on.
The points you mention local clan and patronage networks, the cash advantage, the grip on the local media are perfectly valid points, but to argue for a Hsieh presidential victory, you are going to somehow have to argue that these elements are less important in presidentlal elections than parliamentary ones.
Posted by Twofish | February 23, 2008 4:24 PM