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January 2007 Archives

January 1, 2007

Tom around the web

+ The Moderate Voice linked The mother of all Gap takedowns?

+ Dean Barnett of Hugh Hewitt's web site, links Tom as a good source for opinion on military sizing.

+ Chris Vadnais links Tom as the website he checks when he wants objective information.

+ I, Hans links Good article on the damage created by our ag subsidies

+ Dave Porter linked A system perturbed is a rule-set awakened and also linked China's motives: sane as ours.

+ So did Draconian Observations.

+ Valley Jew linked Saddam is dead (but who benefits?).

+ Seat 1A links Tom as one of his 12 favorite weblogs.

+ nosuchblog linked USA nails the ISG, ISG charade and Big change from very small base.

+ Two more column sightings
TimesDaily.com (Northwest Alabama)
The Cincinatti Post

Nice end to Brett's season, but hopefully not his career

Great to beat the Bears, reinforcing their lack of a championship QB in such spectacular fashion, also extending his personal mastery of the Big Cubs at Soldier's Field.

I expect Favre back another season, and I expect to be in my seat for the second home game when he passes Marino's TD career mark of 420.

Again, Happy New Year.

Weblogs can push the IC

POST: The Blogosphere at War

With so much uproar over Joe Rago's op-ed condemning blogs in the WSJ, this is an interesting and well-reasoned (albeit implicit) reply. Not Wretchard's ambition, I suspect, but that's how I read it.

What Wretchard describes is essentially the competition the unclassified blogs are already offering the classified world of the intelligence community, which is why the IC is replicating this function from within (problem being, it's still the same isolated, self-selecting community inside the IC, just armed with different conversation tools).

Can the same be said about the blogosphere? Sure. It's just a bigger and more diverse community, far more so than even the world of MSM journalism (also highly insular and self-selecting).

That opponents already actively target this realm says several things: 1) the blogosphere is more immediate and responsive than the IC to both pulsing from without and self-correction on bad analysis (the blogosphere is nothing if not cruelly self-critical,and gleefully so); 2) this gap is likely to widen, thus making the blogosphere the more natural target for information operations (which means we should meet this challenge symmetrically, and yes, the IC considers this option very seriously, but I suspect it will be terrible at it (and already is) for all the usual cultural reasons (it's just not the personality they attract, not in the individual skills, but in the confident capacity to act en masse, although a generational shift within the IC may fix that with time); and 3) shaping hearts and minds goes both ways (an essential reality of 4GW).

Many in the U.S. national security establishment will want to go symmetrical on this score, but I think that would be a mistake and probably fruitless. I believe the blogosphere will evolve and grow in such way as to allow it to handle this field of perceptions battle quite nicely, making it within a decade or so to be more important than the IC itself in the Long War.

Thanks to Lexington Green for sending this.

An article I've been waiting years to blog

ARTICLE: "Middle Stance Emerges In Debate Over Climate: Scientists Espouse Measured Response," by Andrew W. Revkin, New York Times, 1 January 2007, p. A16.

Great opening sequence:

Amid the shouting lately about whether global warming is a human-caused catastrophe or a hoax, some usually staid climate scientists are speaking up.

The discourse over the issue has been feverish since Hurrican Kattrina. Seizing the moment, many environmental campaigners, former Vice President Al Gore and some scientists have portrayed the growing human influence on the climate as an unfolding disaster that is already measurably strengthening hurricanes, spreading diseases and amplifying recent droughts and deluges.

Conservative politicians and a few scientists, many with ties to energy companies, have variously countered that human-driven warming is inconsequential, unproved or a manufactured crisis.

A third stance is now emerging, espoused by many experts who challenge both poles of the debate.

They agree that accumulating carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping smokestack and tailpipe gases probably pose a momentous environmental challenge, but say the appropriate response is more akin to buying fire insurance and new wiring in an old, irreplaceable house (the home planet) than to fighting a fire already raging...

Many in this camp seek a policy of reducing vulnerability to all climate extremes while building public support for a sustained shift to non-polluting energy sources.

Make that last sentence "least polluting" or "less polluting" and you've got me sold, because then you're just stating the obvious trend of the past half millennium--that of humanity moving progressively "down" the hydrocarbon chain (wood to coal to oil to gas to ...). This was our basic operating concept when Bradd Hayes and I put together the "economic security exercise" on environmental challenges in Asia with Cantor Fitzgerald back in the spring of 2001, which set the stage for our last NewRuleSets.Project conference atop World Trade Center 1 in June of that year.

Our operating premises were: 1) there's no turning back the enlargement of the global economy (the rising New Core); 2) that New Core's rising energy consumption would shape global foreign direct investment for decades (our first two workshops on energy and FDI); 3) that growth would send both regional pollution (the sort we've basically conquered) and global pollution (the CO2) jumping; 4) following our cap-and-trade schemes on regional pollution, Asia would logically surmount its problems (like all developed states before it), but in that growth trajectory, new opportunities would arise for solution sets to deal with global pollution problems, with global warming (the driver of the game) providing the impetus; 5) and that solution set would logically lie somewhere between the extreme positions of panic and denial (already clearly in view by 2001).

We had a great workshop, which, quite frankly, I never wrote the final report on, because just as I started briefing the results, 9/11 intervened and killed the project for all practical purposes. We had the head of the international UN climate change group, execs from major energy firms, and senior researchers from big environmental groups.

We played a game that predates Bjorn Lomborg's "Copenhagen Consensus" effort, basically using "Survivor" to vote off environmental problems in order of proportional plausibility of response-versus-apparent gain. Like Lomborg's current work, global climate change came in last place, with the winning spot going to clean water, followed by marine habitat, then land loss from population growth, then deforestation and diversity loss, and then acid rain/global climate change (there were two ties).

What was interesting about the ranking?

The ones that came out on top were the ones most currently (and in the near-term future) affecting the New Core (especially India and China).

What that told me was that the New Core would likely set the new rules on this subject, and that the serious roadblock in that emergence of--and the Old Core's cooperation with, and encouragement of--a suitable global rule set would be the wildly divergent discussion here on the subject: a debate of extreme positions.

Once the middle ground began to emerge, I believed serious cooperation with the New Core would be possible. I see that middle ground finally emerging, and it's timing couldn't be better, so long as generational shifts in leadership continue apace in both the West and the New Core East.

To me, then, this is very positive news. The faster we break down East-West mistrust, the faster the appropriate solution sets emerge on the environment.

So when I argue for Sino-American alliance, I argue not just in terms of preventing the loss of lives on our side in this Long War, but the preservation and betterment of life long-term. Put the U.S. and China together and you have the ultimate head-and-body superpower, capable of tackling the world's biggest problems in the context of shared vulnerabilities and desires (not the same values, mind you). Put them at odds because that's the only world your upbringing allows you to imagine, and watch the opportunities for positive global change evaporate in the same stupid stew that we were subjected to by the European empires over the past 500-plus years.

Comments on

Well, I don't have everything the way I want it yet, but that's probably a permanent condition ;-)

Comments are now back on. Please do read the comment policy if you haven't before. I will quote it below for your convenience ;-)

Happy New Year.

The latest (and greatest) on comments

[Moving down from latest and greatest to oldest and least ;-)]

You, the reader, can greatly improve the usefulness of this site. Please do contribute your pertinent comments and links. There will be spam and impertinence, but I'll zap those (as quickly as I can).

Please comment and argue civilly.

Everyone is welcome to comment. However, the comment must be pertinent to the thread. And, while you are free to disagree with Tom, if every comment you write is in fundamental disagreement with Tom, there are other websites where your time would be better spent.

Before asking or (worse!) demanding an answer from Tom, please at least search the voluminous website for an answer/direction, ask a frequent commenter, or read one/both of the books.

No lecturing Tom. He has described this weblog as his 'virtual living room'. Don't taunt Tom (or anyone else!). I want our conversations here to be great.

Comments should be reasonably brief. There are many fine, free weblog services where your long writings can be posted. Self-linking/manual trackbacks for pertinent posts are encouraged. Lay translation: if you have a long comment, post it on your weblog, then put a link in the comments. If you'd like us to read an article, link it (don't copy it in).

If/when you have problems or questions, please email me at webmaster@thomaspmbarnett.com.

If you're willing to register with TypeKey and login with them, your comments will post immediately without approval (though they will still be subject to moderation - deletion or banning, should that be necessary). If you don't wish to register with TypeKey, your comments will have to wait for approval. I will approve such (legitimate) comments as fast as I can, but my ability to approve them will be severely limited while I'm working my day job, approximately 0700-1330 EST during the week.

Tom on Netscape

Netscape's new Digg-esque home page is new to me. The important thing is Weblogs can push the intelligence community is on there right now. Here's the link to the entry itself. Thanks to okitech for putting us up there.

If you've got a Netscape login, please go over and vote for this post. Heck, maybe you're even willing to create a login to vote (but then you'd be going even beyond me ;-)

January 3, 2007

Lost couple of days...

Some mental health time, a lot of personal strategic planning, and then there's the weekly column (Enough of the hedgehog, bring on the fox).

Getting back into the gear, though, especially as the children disappear again to school (God love 'em!).

The quiet time did me much good though. I clearly needed to recharge the batteries.

Signs of acquisition desperation inside the Pentagon

ARTICLE: "War Costs, Loosely Defined: Pentagon Measure Stretches Concept of Emergency Spending," by Jonathan Karp, Wall Street Journal 3 January 2007, p. A5.


When big defense contractors start stuffing in small buys and extra funding for ongoing development programs (like ballistic missile defense) in supplementals, some smell a feeding frenzy, and certainly, there are elements of that. Oversight on these bills is limited, because the main subject is ongoing operations, not all the extras stuffed in, so inappropriate stuff (like those ballistic missiles we're using in Iraq?) slips by.

But I smell something more long term and profund. Everyone inside the Pentagon knows that budgetary spending will level off--by necessity--with whoever follows Bush (Mr. I-care-not-about-budget-deficits), and as we move out of Iraq, so will the opportunity for emergency spending. That combination, along with an inevitable and much needed shift in long-term spending from air assets to ground assets, or from smart weapons to smart soldiers, means the current squeezing of the "out years" (beyond the current stated plans, typically presented in five-year increments) is likely to grow worse with time. The losers in this struggle wil naturally call it a "procurement holiday," but the beneficiaries will call is matching assets to the environment.

Either way you want to describe it, I see this as another sign that the big programs are in greater danger, so contractors are grabbing what they can from the supplementals in the meantime to get as much produced as possible before cuts come, or to push programs along far enough as to make them harder to kill when the time logically comes.

This is a game being played in many dimensions.

January 4, 2007

History will judge us on NK

ARTICLE: N. Korea escalates 'cult of Kim' to counter West's influence: In a time of famine and poverty, nearly 40 percent of the country's budget is spent on Kim-family deification, By Robert Marquand, The Christian Science Monitor, January 03, 2007

Great piece that highlights the crucial difference between Iran's soggy authoritarianism and North Korea's over-the-top Stalinist totalitarianism.

The former is breachable by the soft kill of connectivity, but the latter is too determined to topple slowly, because it's so brittle and so top-heavy that when the emperor is finally seen in his nakedness, this thing collapses much like Ceausescu's Romania.

Naturally, Kim will do everything in his power to prevent any such slippery slope from beginning, and this article points out his extreme willingness to do just that: as famine still ravages parts of the countryside, 40 percent of the visible (we're only guessing at the take from his vast criminal enterprises) government budget is now spent on maintaining and expanding the Kim cult of personality (actually not that much beyond Stalin, as many just never realized how vast that cult became by his death in 1953). In 1990, the cult share of the budget was one-fifth. Now it's 40 percent.

Kim has no future in any Korea other than this one dominated by his cult, which is why we won't be able--in all likelihood--to talk him down (now the Chinese...). Instead, we'll likely need to force him out (and the Chinese...) and there all this cultism works in our favor. No need to de-Baathify or de-Nazify. Just get rid of the man on top.

It isn't quite realized [in the West] how much a threat the penetration of ideas means. They [Kim's regime] see it as a social problem that could bring down the state," says Brian Myers, a North Korean expert at Dongseo University in Busan, South Korea.

Kim's replacement of the party with the military as his main structure of regime support, combined with the new reliance on religous tie-ins and racial superiority, say to me that the meltdown scenario with Kim, where he takes as many of us as he can when he realizes it's all falling apart, is very real.

It's not that I don't think the soft-kill option can ultimately work on Kim, it's that I fear too much that route can only end badly, as in war triggered and nukes flying.

Thus with Kim, but not with Iran, I see the need for some preemptive action by the most incentivized player--China.

History will, I believe, judge us primarily on the possibility of this desired scenario and what we did--or did not do--to make it happen in a timely fashion.

Thanks to Wesley Fredericks for sending this.

Robbing DNI to pay State

ARTICLE: Intelligence Chief Is Shifted to Deputy State Dept. Post, By MARK MAZZETTI, New York Times, January 4, 2007

On Negroponte's shift to State: to me this is desperate cannibalizing of talent that should not be moved. What Negroponte has begun in the IC has the potential to revolutionize everything there, and frankly, that should matter more than this administration's current myopic fixation on Iraq. Bush is neglecting the Long War by focusing too much on this one battle, giving us a presidency more trapped by circumstances than other since Nixon.

Our only hope in this shift (which I do not see correcting any significant imbalance in the correlation of bureaucratic forces on the subject of Iraq: so Condi's got Negroponte, Cheney's still Cheney), is that McConnell's past working relationship with Gates positions him well to keep the pile moving at DNI.

Demographics is destiny - for Israel, too

I wrote this in response to an email from a supporter of Israel who believes I'm getting the story all wrong on Israel and Carter's book and who's trying to correct my perceived mistaken analysis by sending me critiques of Carter's book.

My reply indicates that I'm taking a rather orthogonal approach to the usual Israeli-Arab conflict description, by focusing on Israel's problem of trying to maintain the racial identity of its state in a globalizing world. My reply:

The point I make in supporting Carter's argument (versus the book in whole) is that defining a nation by race and preserving that character through systematic discrimination is not viable in a globalizing world.

Won't work for anybody (and plenty of other nationalities feeling the same fear as Jews on this subject--all over the planet). The only reason why it matters more with Israel is the overlapping claims to the territory, which makes the argument for a race-majority state harder to sell.

Plus, the endemic conflict with the squatters (Palestinians) who simply won't give up, especially after winning partial control over Gaza and the West Bank. Otherwise, this story is no more unique or fantastic than the plights of Latvians, or countless indigenous nationalities getting squeezed the world over.

It all boils down to this question: can anybody become a full citizen of your state? Or are they restricted by reasons of race and/or religion?

If any state's answer rationalizes the second choice, then there is a fundamental falsehood associated with the state's definition of liberty.

This isn't an argument won by rehashing the original rationale for the creation of Israel. That story also isn't particularly unique in its long tale of immense suffering--just the concentrated scale of murdering associated with it (and the amazing documentation of it). Look the world over, and you will find similarly sad tales of targeted ethnic cleansing leading to lengthy and often successful efforts at national self-determination (for example, does any nationality deserve its own nation right now more than the Kurds?).

My argument is about what Israel can or cannot survive as--state-wise--in a future, increasingly globalized world. France can't survive or thrive in that future as just white French, unless it discriminates consistently to maintain that end. If it does that, the Paris riots are only the beginning and soon enough France will stop resembling a democracy as we define it. Israel's problem is not different from that, nor is Japan's, with it's rapidly aging demographics, nor Ireland's, which for the first time in its modern history is grappling with non-European immigrants.

Eventually France will have a north African-descent leader. Eventually Ireland will have a non-Irish one. Eventually Japan will have a non-Japanese one (after all, they gave Peru one). Soon enough America will have a Hispanic one.

And eventually Israel must have an Arab one, or it must chose to systematically prevent that pathway from emerging.

In all of these countries and in every country, many will argue that losing that original racial-religious core dominancy will "ruin" the country, because, in all such cases, the country began precisely to protect that identity.

Israel argues a special status for its case. I think that argument holds up well in the 20th century, but will get lost in the shuffle of the plethora of similar claims arising--the world over--in the 21st.

So, again, comparing to the US or any state with a dominant race doesn't work. What matters is how that state seeks to preserve that dominance and why. European-descent whites will be in the collective minority is the US within my lifetime--unless we make laws to prevent it. But I don't want to live in a US that is forced down the path of such discrimination, so I accept that America will be increasingly Latinized, no matter how much the Anglo-Protestants don't like that.

Israel faces a similar demographic squeeze with non-Jews, which will inevitably outnumber Jews in Israel within our lifetimes, unless Israel takes extraordinary steps to prevent that. I think Israel is taking and will continue to take those steps (much as many Israelis yearn for a post-Zionist identity to emerge, believing peace is impossible without it--something I agree with), and in that path lose much of its democracy and thus support from the United States.

That's my call, or my analysis. Offering it doesn't mark me one way or the other regarding Jews or Israel. It means that's simply the way I see it. Carter's book, with its many flaws, does force that conversation and those realizations more out into the open, and that's a good thing for everyone--including Israel.

Demgraphics is destiny. Pretending otherwise in inadvisable.

Thanks for the note.

China can't control its 'cults'

ARTICLE: The Bishop from Beijing: Rome must be wary of China’s meddlesome puppet priests, By Doug Bandow, The National Review, January 4, 2007

Good story on the struggle of the Catholic Church in China. As I wrote near the end of BFA, China is on the pathway to once again becoming a very religious society.

This naturally scares the Party, especially given China's long history of "cults" (as pretty much all religions are called officially) triggering political unrest (good example, the Boxers).

The Party fears religions for the same reasons it fears the Interent: uncontrollable horizontal connectivity that can theoretically be mobilized against the state.

This thing works itself out in the end, though. As China's consumeristic middle-class grows and demands more protection from an arbitrary state, freedom of religion enters that dialogue. It does so because, as Chinese move up Maslow's hierarchy of needs, they naturally want more spirituality in their lives.

China's religious scene is already too diverse for the Party to try and co-opt one "official faith" (the sad problem of the Middle East--including Israel), but the CCP may well try that path eventually.

But expect the CCP to continue to try and control church leadership selections (like it does with Catholics). Will this grant them control over the faithful? Didn't work for the dictatorial John Paul II with American Catholics (okay, most American Catholics), so why would we expect it to go any better with Beijing?

Religion is about group control only in hard economic times. Once you go from Gap to Core, then it becomes increasingly about individual fulfillment.

That's the Pope's problem with Americans.

That's Israel's problem with its secular, post-Zionist citizenry.

And that'll be Beijing's problem with Christianity eventually.

Thanks to Rod Montgomery for sending this.

Trackback italiano

Pretty sure this is our first Trackback in Italian.

And when he calls his weblog The Right Nation, he's not kidding (judging from the banners).

Tom on Hugh Hewitt

Tom will be on Hugh Hewitt's radio show tomorrow night.

Hugh's weblog

Looks like you'll be able to go to Hugh's Talk Radio Online page to listen on the Internet.

Or go to this page to (maybe) find where to listen locally.

Tom thinks he'll be on around 6:20 or 6:35 pm.

Be sure to tune in!

Want to hear Tom in Hawaii?

In other speaking news, Tom may be available for talks on Sunday the 8th of April and Monday the 9th. He is scheduled to talk at a Special Ops event on the 10th. If you are interested in having Tom speak, please email Jen Posada.

January 5, 2007

Two years in a row

Once again, BFA has been named a Book of the Year by Enter Stage Right. If you haven't read Steve's review, The optimistic warrior, you should. Tom says:

BFA came out late in 2005, but frankly, it read decidedly better as 2006 unfolded (the paperback came out late in 2006), so more fitting to be selected for 06 than 05.

My thanks to Steve Martinovich for this honor.

Sometimes it feels like my whole career has come down to about two dozen people: they choose me, so I get chosen. I take that recognition very seriously, and do best to forge a career that justifies it.

I know Steve weighs his choices carefully as well, so again, my thanks to him and Enter Stage Right.

Petraeus and Fallon are good choices

ARTICLE: Bush Making Changes in His Iraq Team: As He Reviews War Policy, Deep Divisions Remain, By Robin Wright and Michael Abramowitz, Washington Post, January 5, 2007; Page A01

Picking Dave Petraeus to replace Casey is a solid choice. Petraeus doesn't shy from the nation-building role and since building Iraq from the army outward is the most feasible pathway of success, putting him in charge makes a lot of sense; he's got the most experience and has done the most thinking and revamping of doctrine on the more general topic of counter-insurgency. Plus, Dave's just a really good guy.

I had the real honor of spending time with him in Leavenworth in December of 2005: addressing his students, interviewing him at length for the "Monks of War" piece, and holding an informal roundtable with him and the famed "Jedi knights" of his schoolhouse there in Kansas. It was a most memorable time, because it's rare enough to meet someone of that talent and drive.

Tough for him to pick up and leave again (he missed his son's entire high school experience, for example, with previous tours), so we thank his family for the intense sacrifice as well.

I worry a lot, as do many family members, that one or more of my nephews will be pulled back to Iraq before this ends, so knowing Petraeus will be there helps somewhat with those fears. Smart choice by Bush, but one likely set in motion by Rummy a while back, I suspect. Say what you like about Rumsfeld (and much should be said), he picked his flag officer slots well, and as I noted in my profile of him in Esquire, he put in an unusually large amount of effort in those choices.

Picking Fallon may seem a stretch, given the regional shift from Pac to Cent, plus he's an admiral (many thought another "monk of war" would be named, as in Mattis), but I like the choice a lot and here's why: Fallon's a bit of a maverick who's confident in his diplomatic skills, as witnessed by his hard and sustained push to improve mil-mil ties with China, despite opposition from many in the Pentagon, and especially the neocons. So I admire his capacity to take heat and persevere in a tricky effort such as that. I think it may serve him well in Centcom, where I think his biggest challenges will be dealing with Iran, Syria and others (Saudi Arabia, Israel) who all have their own agendas and can be counted upon to pursue them no matter what the cost to America. We need a serious diplomat in that job, and I believe Fallon was probably the best available guy for the billet right now.

Whew! with Hugh

Man, that was fast! But 10-minute spots fly by like you wouldn't believe.

Hugh was very generous, both in description and in time to answer questions. I did my best to go high-bit rate by rarely taking a full breath. I had just scanned the Preface of PNM to remind myself what it covered. Hugh's questions lined up nicely, so my boning up on my bon mots worked out.

It was hard to gear up because I've done no public speaking in roughly a month, which is a frickin' eternity! But having Hewitt intro the segment with the promise of 8 more shows got my pulse up plenty and I was off to the races, giving probably the best 60-second summary of my career I've ever done.

I know Hewitt's pretty conservative, but--quite frankly--it's been the right and the right-of-center that's given me the openings time and time again, so I'm grateful for the exposure and psyched for the exchange. I had read Hugh's interview with Rago and Sullivan and while he's tough, he does not trick or lure. Any graves you dig with your tongue are your own to wallow in, so I had no trepidation heading in. The guy's amazingly committed to making this a serious teach-in, so to speak, and I don't know any author who doesn't welcome that sort of serious attention.

This should be a lot of fun.

Editor's notes:

The transcript isn't up yet, but watch this post on Hugh's weblog for it. I will post it as soon as I see it.

And Hugh's co-weblogger, Dean Barnett (no relation) has a really nice post about Tom's appearance and thinking.

Welcome visitors from Hugh Hewitt!

Tom is very excited about the unique situation we find ourselves in. To recap, Tom will be going on Hugh's show approximately eight more times in the next couple of months to cover a chapter per appearance of Tom's first major book, The Pentagon's New Map.

With that in mind, let me point you to some resources.

(By the way, I'm Tom's webmaster.)

First of all, you should buy the book. See that Amazon box over there in the sidebar? Click on it ;-) (Or click here.)

Tom's home page contains links to lots of his material.

Since Tom and Hugh will be talking about the The Pentagon's New Map, let me point you to the index page for that book. There's tons of material there, including the 'Expanded DVD/Director's Commentary'.

If you don't already know, PNM (that's how we abbreviate the first book) came out of Tom's PowerPoint Brief which he has given thousands of times. Many older slides from the Brief are available in the Director's Commentary section. You can especially find them in the Storyboard section.

But there's nothing like hearing or, better, seeing and hearing the Brief. We have a separate Brief page that has many links to AV presentations of the Brief. The highest quality versions are probably the DVDs that you can buy from C-SPAN, but there are many no cost options as well.

Finally, Tom has over 4000 posts on his weblog. Why not click here, search for your favorite topic (type it in the Google search box after the 'site:thomaspmbarnett.com'), and see what comes up?

If you have any questions, leave them in the comments on this thread.

We're excited you're here and look forward to a fun couple of months!

Interviewed on Petraeus

Spoke with Matt seconds after Hewitt's show (about Petraeus and Fallon, naturally), expanding the logic from this morn's post. Really glad to hear Matt say that Tom Hammes was psyched by the pick. I know Nagl will be extremely pleased. Hell, he probably pushed hard from his perch in OSD (mil asst to DEPSECDEF). That "perfumed prince" tag on Petraeus has always struck me as BS. People who reallly know, know better.

The hearings on these two should be fascinating.

Sorry for shorthand. Racing to movies with kids.

January 6, 2007

More from Hugh's show

The transcript and audio from Tom's appearance last night are both up. Check them out.

If you just want to only listen to Tom's part, listen from 9:00 to 18:40.

Further, the plan, as Hugh articulated it, is to take eight shows to cover each chapter in PNM. Hugh is shooting for eight consecutive Tuesdays, starting this Tuesday the 9th, 6 EST (2nd hour of the program). Again, to find a local station that carries Hugh's show, click here. Just like this post, I'll plan on linking transcripts and audio as soon as Hugh's site has them up.

Tom on Petraeus

In the wake of Petraeus' promotion, Esquire is featuring part of Tom's article for them, Monks of War, calling it Can David Petraeus Rebuild a Nation?. Unfortunately, Monks of War is still behind the pay wall.

Matthew Stannard's article on Petraeus, which quotes Tom and which Tom posted about yesterday, is up. Tom's part:


"This is the guy who came into Iraq during his first tour and seemed to get the nation-building stuff better than anybody. But he also was sharp in terms of doing the necessary killing," said Thomas Barnett, who profiled Petraeus for Esquire magazine in March. "He brings a lot of native skills to the entire process."

Plunging back in...

This Xmas vacation has wreaked havoc on my schedule, but as the kids return to school (I have four: high school, middle school, grade school, preschool), things settle down more and more with each day.

Meanwhile, I grow increasingly happy with our big Xmas gift to ourselves (the parents): our Precore elliptical trainer. Between that and the Bowflex (which we use religiously), I now feel confident I have all the tools to head into middle age fearing primarily the growing, Al Gore-like bald spot on the back of my head.

The notion of the Hewitt extravaganza stretching over the next two months definitely picked me up, giving me a nice sense of optimism for the new year (not that Enterra's continuing trajectory can't manage that feat on its own). It's been long clear that most readers are still getting their heads around The Pentagon's New Map, while Blueprint for Action, its sequel, remains unknown to many (victim of perhaps too rapid a follow-up, then a fall release, the competition of I-was-there soldier books that hit that fall [shifting the discussion from grand strategy to individual plights--only natural], and frankly Putnam had too full a slate of big-name celebrity books right then so I didn't get the PR push I got the first time with PNM). I go to a lot of places where I give speeches and find that many PNM fans still hunger for a follow-up book, not realizing that BFA is even out there!

But can I be disappointed that Hewitt's focus is PNM and not BFA? (note: Hewitt seemed unaware of BFA, so we're sending him a copy--only proving my point).

Hardly, especially given his commitment to making this a long, slow, explanatory venue. I really believe the whole "surge" question and rising issues with Syria and Iran and Israel-Palestine (all reemphasized by the ISG report) will bring grand strategy back in vogue in 2007, only to be further boosted by the prez campaign season as we head in 2008.

Naturally, I think of Vol. III for sometime in 2008, and expect to gin up a proposal within the next three months, but I'm not worried about getting ahead of the audience. I'm ecstatic that I got out BFA in 2005, because I think it was crucial to get down on paper all that I did, not just to further expand PNM's arguments, but because I think the track record of BFA will turn out to be better and better with time. Thus, any PR that pushes Pentagon's New Map will eventually lead ready-willing-and-able readers to Blueprint for Action. As I wrote in PNM, it's one thing to have the answer, but it's another thing to have the right audience and the right time.

But I won't hold up the third book (focused on individual-led change as its minor theme and "releasing the grand strategist in you!" as its major theme) because I feel like it's essential at this point in pivotal history (and early in this Long War) that someone write the grand strategy primer (a "how to," not a "what is," because I offered the former in PNM and BFA) to help raise a next generation of strategists for the decades ahead.

Frankly, when I was in college in the 1980s (and I mean the entire 1980s to get a BA, MA and PHD), I would have killed for this kind of book: something that gave me a deep and systematic look at the career path I was contemplating. Yes, I will be limited to my own experience to a certain extent, but it's been a good pathway and a fairly broad one, and I think it's worth sharing, because--as I said on Hugh's show last night--we in the national security community can't keep defaulting to the journalists and columnists for grand strategy. That dialogue needs to be driven by practitioners, not commentators.

And Vol. III will aim to do that, maintaining the manifesto tone of PNM and BFA, but bringing it down to the level of the individual with the expressed purpose of replicating the vision in a small army of like-minded thinkers. Indoctrination? Not really. I'm far more interested in passing on form rather than content, and I fully expect to be a "bad" or "weak" follower of my own vision before I pass from the scene (I am already routinely accused of "breaking" from my vision's logic by readers and fellow bloggers and I'm more than cool with that, because as I wrote in BFA, the grand strategist can launch such visions but he or she cannot own them once they take flight: you're just connecting people to what they want to know, or--in many cases--already intrinsically know deep in their hearts and, once accomplished, frankly you're not really needed anymore on that subject so you better move on). Thus, Vol. III for me, is the moving-on part: the systematic training of the next generation.

Apologies for the inner dialogue, but hey! That's what the blog is for: the daily glimpse into the mindset and how it interprets current events. Never pretty, because I tend to be as sloppy as the next guy on a daily basis. My strength has never been the drill down on any one topic, but the synthesizing across time--or what I call the horizontal thinking.

To that end, let me catch up on a pile of papers...

Monks of War available

I was looking in the wrong place. A big thanks to Prasenjeet for pointing out the current availability.

The Monks of War
The Monks of War (printer-friendly version)

PNM paperback boosted on Amazon

For some reason, hardcover Pentagon's New Map is not available on Amazon, but neat to see the bargain paperback jump into the 500s because of Hugh's show last night.

Also nice to see a five-checks-out-of-five vote on Hewitt's site.

Listening to Hewitt's opening comments on the GOP candidates and find myself surprisingly in agreement with him on McCain's weakness and Romney's strengths. I think 2008 is going to be a very surprising race.

This week's column

Enough of the hedgehog

The ancient Greek poet Archilochus opined, "The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing." Let me submit that we're living through the final months of the decidedly hedgehog presidency of George W. Bush, whose strategic failures logically can be remedied by the election of a fox in 2008.

Americans generally prefer leaders to be steadfast and armed with a readily identifiable worldview. To have a mind subject to periodic change is considered weak and irresolute. We often label these individuals "flip-floppers," "liars" and - worst of all - "politicians," when "life-long learners" and "deal-makers" are equally applicable.

Read on at KnoxNews
Read on at Scripps Howard

The CFL: needing all our support!

ARTICLE: "Wal-Mart Puts Some Muscle Behind Power-Sipping Bulbs," by Michael Barbaro, New York Times, 2 January 2007, p. A1.

No, not the Canadian Football League, but compact fluorescent bulb.

While I had a lot of problems with Al Gore's "An Inconvenient Truth," it did push me on a subject I really believe in: swapping out incandescent bulbs for fluorescent ones.

The key reason: so much less energy used. A comparable 60watt CFL actually uses only 13 watts.

The next great follow-on reason: a CFL 60 watt-equivalent saves about 100 pounds of carbon emissions in a year, because of all the savings in electricity generation.

An unnoticed reason: CFLs are amazingly cooler (heat-wise), meaning fewer fires caused from wires heated to the point of brittleness (a real danger) and less wasted energy to be compensated for during warmer seasons by AC (ever notice how hot lights get with incandescents?).

A real homeowner reason: CFLs go about 5 to 10 times longer than regular bulbs. If you have a decent-sized house like I do, that's reason enough. I'm so tired of replacing bulbs every time I come back from the road.

So great to see Wal-Mart get behind this. The challenge: sell these CFLs and you'll sell fewer bulbs. But since they cost so much more (you won't save money in bulbs, but in electricity), if Wal-Mart gets people hot on these, they'll be selling far fewer bulbs over time. So G.E.'s basically telling Wal-Mart to slow down otherwise it'll put people out of work at factories that produce regular bulbs. Seems to me that G.E., which does pretty well by the American public, could think a bit more long term for our environment.

So a tip of my hat to Wal-Mart on this one.

Why I focus on economics...

Follow-up questioner on Hugh's show (regular visitor here) said his problem with me was my focus on economics and not enough on the ideology of jihad.

I've gotten this criticism for a long time: Barnett can't account for the irrationals.

This is what I wrote in Blueprint for Action(p. 281):

As we seek to shrink what remains of the Gap over the next several decades, we will rarely find societies adequately prepared--either intellectually or emotionally--for the travails that lie ahead. Instead, the elements most prepared will be those most willing to wage bloody resistance against this process: educated, worldly young men who are familiar with the future we offer and have already decided that is is corrupting beyond all reason. These revolutionaries and terrorists will wage wars of extreme perversity against both us and their own peoples, convinced as they are of their moral superiority in rooting out hypocrisy and heresy.

We will see, time and time again, atrocities committed by these actors that recall the chillingly murderous logic of Stalin, Mao, and Pol Pot, as they too seek to remake their own corners of humanity overnight so as to keep them safe and thoroughly disconnected from the evil of the outside world. These perverse acts of violence will be designed to shock us as much as their own people, in the typical "bloody nose" strategy that outsiders have attempted against "weak" and "amoral" Americans going decades back in our history--at times successfully (e.g., Pearl Harbor [not], Tet Offensive [yes], 9/11 [yet to be seen]. As such, their strategy of resistance will specifically target--in the manner of Fourth-Generation Warfare--our morale and perseverance rather than our material strength.

This "silver bomb" strategy is not unlike the "silver bullet" thinking that has long impaired much of America's own military logic. While we constantly search fro the "killer application," or decisive technology that will bring us instant victory, our enemies search for the "killer strike," or the symbolic targets whose destruction brings us to our knees and convinces us of the futility of fighting on. In this way, our current main enemies, the Salafi jihadits, are, in the words of that hardened revolutionary strategist, Vladimir Lenin, almost "childlike" in their assumption that the right bomb in the right place at the right time will bring about worldwide revolution.

But their destruction is preordained by history, in a form of natural selection by which those who cannot ground themselves in anything but totalitarian schemes of power and domination over others must inevitably be weeded out so that others far more talented and imaginative can truly reap the benefits of a world without walls, without disconnectedness, and without war.

So yes, I do account for nonrational actors in my worldview. And when they threaten violence against global order, I say: Kill them.

So no, I don't believe in the war of ideas or in propaganda. I say, kill the bad guys to keep us safe now, but deny the bad guys new recruits by providing economic alternatives to the sort of dead-end lives that make them vulnerable to recruitment as foot soldiers in the Gap wars ahead. I'm interested in shutting down the flow over the long term, because to me, that's the only win worth pursuing. We're never going to stop the committed terrorists willing to come here to wage their wars, because they tend to be highly-educated and resistant to that play on our part. Those individuals we hunt down and kill. But to marginalize their movements, we have to cap the anger at the source, and economics is huge in this effort, while politics and ideology tend only to be reflective of underlying economic realities.

So I'm admittedly a realist in short-term fighting and an economic determinist in long-term fighting, but that's how I think the Long War will be won.

Silent soldiers in the demographic wars of the 21st century

ARTICLE: "For Children of Ill Parents, IVs Are Part of the Routine: Young Caregivers Juggle School, Feeding Tubes," by Clare Ansberry, Wall Street Journal, 5 January 2007, p. A1.

Vonne and I went through this for a year-and-a-half with Emily and her cancer treatments in the mid-1990s, and it was amazing how it took over our lives: like running a hospital room in your house.

We felt like we were at war with an intruder who had breached our walls, one who spent every day trying every trick in its arsenal to kill our first-born. Between all the daily care routines (cleaning sites, changing and maintaining IVs, prepping meds, blood draws, giving meds through the IVs and with real needles) and the occasional nerve-tingling car race to the ER with a child fading into you-don't-want-to-find-out, I found myself really burned out two years after diagnosis.

Military friends warned me that I was exhibiting all the characteristics of post-trauma stress, that I was becoming addicted to the excitement and losing my ability to chill and lead a normal life. They told me that if I didn't get a grip on it and learn to readjust my personality and thinking, I'd end up a drunk or an addict or mentally ill. That I'd lose my wife and family and probably go bankrupt.

Those predictions, on the far side of the experience of Em's cancer, exactly mirrored those of the docs and social workers upon diagnosis. In the end, everyone was saying the same thing: the cancer can only kill Emily, but how you handle it can kill your entire family.

That's where the "war within the context of everything else" concept began for me: that simple life lesson.

So when I read this article, I feel more committed than ever to the idea that we need a return of a "fox" (who knows many things) to the White House in 2008, replacing the "hedgehog" (tell me Bush's entire presidency isn't Iraq right now). I care about that more than whether he or she is Republican or Democrat. We can't let the Long War become everything and the rest become all "lesser includeds." What's happening inside American families right now on the issue of elder care and healthcare in general is simply too profound to ignore.

There are simply too many casualties we're not counting.

Two Pakistans

KARACHI JOURNAL: "When She Speaks, He's Breaking All of Islam's Taboos," by Salman Masood, New York Times, 3 January 2007, p. A4.

This story is too weird to believe: a cross-dressing man pretends to be a widow who interviews celebrities and politicians on her TV show, which he/she actually does quite well, leading to very high ratings in Pakistan.

Talk about crossing line possible in a nation with raging Islamic jihadism.

How can this be?

It is true that Pakistan is, in a sense, two countries. There is urban, and urbane, Pakistan, where Western mores are more accepted, although nudity would never be seen on television or scantily clad women on billboards [Not a bad thing, say I.] And then there is rural Pakistan, where Islam is generally practiced with more fervor.

Can anyone say "Blue states versus red states?"

Honestly, I think that's why our Red States tend to want to fight jihadists head on and call it a day--you know, listening to the Old Testament child within each of us. Meanwhile, the Blue States tend to want to fight the jihadists more indirectly, albeit often too Oprah-like in our attempts to "educate" them as to the error of their ways.

Me? Again, you put out fires as they appear, but you work to make your environment more fire-safe over time by spreading the good rules and the resilient nets. Within that connectivity and those networks, you have to expect people to chose as they please, growing up at a reasonable pace.

But you don't win by telling people what you think is wrong. You win by showing them what you know is right.

Modeled behavior wins most battles. That's why my new strategy trinity is connectivity, reciprocity, democracy: connect economically for opportunity, focus on freedom of faith, and then focus on the fine-tuning that is democracy.

I know many would place religious freedom first, but I see religion becoming a rigid survival mechanism during hard economic times, pre-empting either freedom of belief or any lasting movement toward political pluralism. You gotta give people some confidence in their future--real world future--before you can expect them to do unto others as they'd like done unto themselves. It's economic plenty that drives religion inward, and once that happens, serious political pluralism is possible.

So back to our cross-dresser: progress in Pakistan? Not really. Just indicative of a quasi-ally we can live with (urban Pakistan) and a danger-zone we need somebody to integrate (rural Pakistan), before events pull us in at a time of our enemies' choosing (the point of my column at Xmas).

Melting pot? Yes. It just takes a while to melt the big chunks.

ARTICLE: "For Moviegoers in North Bergen, N.J., It's 'Hooray for Bollywood': Indians gather at a multiplex to see films in their native languages," by Kareem Fahim, New York Times, 3 January 2006, p. A20.

Interesting piece on how half a suburban multiplex is reserved for Indian-language films (meaning, in Hindi).

Bollywood (meaning, made in Mumbai) films scored 8 out of the top-15 spots for foreign language films in the U.S. last year, reflecting the growing role of NRIs (as India likes to call them, non-resident Indians) in American society.

Many Americans are aware of Indians primarily as docs, but last year Indian-led firms accounted for something like half the technology start-ups in this country, so they create a lot of jobs in addition to saving lives.

Like many immigrant groups, Indians are concentrated geographically and job-wise, but like every other wave before them, they'll increasingly spread out across both measures, and what is today just a few pioneering cinemas will--sooner than you think--be a major influence on how films are made and marketed here in the U.S.

A good example of this process, a bit farther down the road, is the rising role of Hispanic media and artists.

Fascinating process to watch unfold, but a good example of where, if you think systematically about the future, you can place everything in context. History constantly repeats itself--just never in the same way.

Me? I love Bollywood films, especially the staple movie musical where daughter of traditional father falls in love with modern man (whom traditional father naturally hates). Seven songs, two fights and one kiss later, guess which way the story turns out? You bet! Headstrong daughter always picks modern man. That's why Bollywood musicals are so popular in Asia and the Middle East: it's highly reflective of where those societies are right now in confronting the promise and perils of globalization.

America's pretty much forgotten those days, except in the occasional Western or similar period piece. The whole marrying-beneath-yourself or marrying-outside-your-tribe thing is awfully muted nowadays in our culture, played primarily for laughs (like "My Big Fat Greek Wedding," where traditional dad's big hangup is his belief that Windex cures everything that ails you).

Jerry's brief interruption...

Last night, when I was sort of losing my train of thought on the Soviets "sizing" our forces, and my sentence hiccuped a bit, it was because Jerry came through the glass doors on my home office and was just opening his mouth to ask me where his Star Wars toys were.

I waved him off with a very vigorous arm wave (which, frankly, he just understands in a cave man sort of way), and that's why I wandered a bit on that sentence.

Jerry has an almost perfect record of showing up in my home office for every radio appearance. We make these extensive preparations every time, like rounding up all the wireless phones so no one will pick up, and every time Jerry eludes our defenses and somehow shows up in my office, usually looking for some lost toy (and rather indignantly at that).

I'm going to start paying older brother Kevin to guard the door.

Gone for now, but eventually to return to Somalia

ARTICLE: "Somalia's Islamists, Cornered, Vow Never to Surrender," by Jeffrey Gettleman, New York Times, 31 December 2006, p. 4.

Now the Islamic Court jihadists in Somalia have declared their holy war on Christian Ethiopia, in hapless (for now) retaliation for Addis Ababa sending its troops to help Somalia's transitional (is there any other kind in Somalia?) government regain control over most of the nation, driving the jihadists from the capital--again, for now.

The "cockroach" problem (you spray one apartment and they just go to the next apartment over) is being played out here again with the jihadists: you drive them out and they just run away--just far enough--so you stop pursuing (a bit cavalry v. Indians, yes?), things quiet down for a bit, and then the raids begin again...

Islamic banking continues to ramp up

MONEY & BUSINESS: "Capitalism That Crosses Cultures: Will U.S. Firms embrace Islamic investment rules?" by Kit R. Roane, U.S. News & World Report, 8 January 2007, p. 48.

I wrote about Islamic banking in Pentagon's New Map (or maybe it was BFA), citing it as a good and obvious beginning of economic connectivity between Islamic countries (specifically, Indonesia).

It has always amazed me that Arab oil money really doesn't connect well with the rest of the world, as historically speaking they've kept their investments pretty liquid (not engaging much or accepting much foreign direct investment, for example).

But all this oil money--this time--seems different. As Yusuf Talal DeLorenzo, the new "chief sharia officer" for a Connecticut money fund, is quoted in this piece:

Companies that do business in the Middle East are realizing that Islamic finance is not just a flash in the pan but is a regional and generational development.

Yes, getting Islamic financing is still harder than it should be, but wait until the next global credit crunch comes, and we'll see this connectivity take off.

Why Ford's post-mortem on Bush hurt

It hurt because the guiding hands (as I note in this weekend's column) given to Bush the Younger by the GOP establishment were all Ford guys (Cheney, Rumsfeld) or their proteges (Scowcroft's Powell and Rice).

I have often joked in the brief about Bush's team being a bunch of retreads from the Ford Administration (their formative period, no doubt) and often gotten confused giggles from the audience. But I think after Ford's funeral, the connections became clear to most people.

Ahmadinejad's post-presidency not that far on the heels of Bush's

PERISCOPE: "A Brewing Battle of Heavyweights in Tehran," by Maziar Bahari, Newsweek, 8 January 2007, p. 8.

I've made the case that Bush's post-presidency began with Katrina, but I think Bush-taunting Ahmadinejad's ain't much further behind, especially after the Iranian parliament voted to shorten his term! Ahmadinejad's real time at the plate looks like it will last less than two years, by this judgment.

The analysis here speaks for itself:

Iranians are deserting the president they elected by a landslide in June 2005. Not only did university students heckle Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with chants of "Death to the dictator!" during a speech last month in Tehran, state-run TV had the temerity to report it. Some of his own supporters criticized his recent international gathering of Holocaust revisionists as harmful to Iran's national interests. And thanks to his economic flubs, Iranians are grumbling about inflation instead of reveling in an oil-boom windfall. Iranian TV reported that news, too, and when Ahmadinejad complained about the story, the network's director (a former ally) replied: "We just tell the truth." The legislature has stopped rubber-stamping the 50-year-old president's decisions, and the latest local elections cost him all but two of his allies on Tehran's 15-seat city council. The big winner: his pothole-filling, street-cleaning successor as mayor of Tehran, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, 45.

Ghalibaf, the article goes on, is already casting a shadow over Ahmadinejad's presidency as the 2009 election looms in the distance. No, he's not some messiah reformer. Same basic package of conservative, just far more pragmatic and willing to deal to get things done. Got a PhD in geopolitics. Famous now for quelling a student protest by holding talks with the leaders and okaying a needle exchange program for Tehran's many drug addicts.

Ghalibaf could have been prez in 2005, but reached out too much to moderates while Ahmadinejad courted the hardliners. Interesting to see how well that's worked out now, isn't it?

Another good example of why calling Iran totalitarian is wrong. It's a rancid old authoritarianism that's got more skulldugging internal politics than we understand, much less take advantage of. We've got to get smarter on this country. We focus on one thing (WMD) and as a result we're getting played by Tehran across the dial.

Their fox v. our hedgehog, but fortunately for us, not the smartest fox in town.

Heading out...

Caught up on the articles as much as I could.

Hitting a steakhouse tonight with the missus and eldest son. Then it's "Children of Men" from a favorite director of ours.

Go Colts!

Weird, but apparently Amazon found some hardcover PNMs

Now ranked at about 1k.

Guess they checked the backroom this afternoon.

Nightcap

Another eventful day here on the weblog: Hewitt stuff, Tom catching up, etc. A couple more links and I'm going to try to put the posts to bed for tonight.

Yesterday I linked Dean Barnett's post on Hugh's weblog about Tom's appearance. I was pleasantly surprised to find a number of the comments to be complimentary of Tom or at least open to learning more. Up to 24 comments now. Of course, some of the comments aren't worth printing.

And, finally, not only did Tom post articles today, he posted quite a few comments, too. You might go check them out. I mention our current highest comment thread: Demographics is destiny - for Israel too, up to 15 comments.

See you in the morning!

January 7, 2007

"Children of Men" is the best future dystopian movie I've ever seen

So good it would seem weird to me that it might not get any Oscar nods.

I have long maintained that "1984" (with John Hurt and Richard Burton) was the best ever, but this one tops that by a ways.

Extremely compelling, fantastic set design and production values. Great acting. You really care about the characters deeply and have no idea what's going to happen.

I've long admired the director, Alfonzo Cuaron, since I saw his breakout film (Y tu mama tambien) with my wife at the Newport Film Festival (he also did the last and best "Harry Potter," so he impresses across many styles, like a Ridley Scott).

Other than "The Departed," best thing I've seen all year.

Another spiral development attempt on the Carter book controversy

In my last post on the subject, several commenters took offense with my intermingling of race and religion with regard to Israel, i.e., that it's wrong to call Jews a race (I didn't actually say that, but implied it by saying the state of Israel seeks to maintain a single racial/religious identity).

Clearly, it's an occupational hazard to be the horizontal thinker who skips across subjects and is willing to share first-draft thinking, virtually live. And in this increasingly intolerant intellectual environment we find ourselves in, where the new motto seems to be, "saying sorry isn't enough," one risks banishment by all sorts of people every time you open your mouth

So I asked myself, "was that just sloppy on my part (I am constantly guilty of universalizing everything as a top-down, big picture thinker) or do I see Israel's identity based not merely on a religious affiliation argument but also on a blood argument?"

And my answer is, I honestly believe that I do see the Israeli argument based on blood as well as religion: the notion that "natural" Jews are biologicals (to borrow a phrase from the world of adoption; here, simply defining "natural" as being by birth). If your mother is a Jew, you're naturally a Jew. Doesn't mean you'll follow the faith, but it does mean you're automatically qualified for membership. If your mom isn't Jewish, then you have to convert. You have to choose the faith.

And that's different from my faith (Catholicism), because having a Catholic mom doesn't get you anything in Catholicism. You get a children's pass with baptism, but then you're required to redeclare your faith at various stages or you're out, no matter who your mom is. You really can't be Christian by birth

If the blood tie is meaningless in Christianity, it does seem to mean a lot in Judaism (there are Christians, but not really a Christian "people"; if you're not a practicing Christian, you're not Christian, but if you're not a practicing Jew, are you not still considered Jewish?), so clearly there's a mingling of racial and religious identity, and that's seen in the Law of Return, a profound mechanism designed to attract as many Jews as possible to the homeland from the various locations (and yes, from various ethnic identities achieved through intermarriage) reached by Jews scattered in the historical diaspora. That law allows (by my knowledge) converted Jews to emigrate to Israel, but it does not allow non-Jews to emigrate to Israel and Israel restricts full citizenship to Jews. So if my mom's Jewish, I've got the free pass to Israeli citizenship, but if she's not and I marry a Jew, then I can't manage citizenship unless I convert.

To me, that whole story allows Israelis to define themselves in both a racial manner (blood ties trump) and religious (converts are welcome) manner, so it gets a bit disingenuous to say Jews are not defined somehow by race even though self-identification can be proven primarily on the basis of blood ties (i.e., my mom's Jewish). Then again, it's clear that Jews exist, with their bloodlines, across numerous racial groups, and maybe the matrilineal aspect accounts for that.

Moreover, the historical basis for Israel as a state is to recollect that tribe that got spread all over the planet in centuries past, and it doesn't get much more racial than that. It's just that, starting with Israel's birth in the late 1940s, and given all this time, to engage in the process of re-concentrating some portion of the Jewish tribe is to accept that many come back looking like people from the world over (due to past intermarriage and cultural assimilation). That reality does make Israel a multi-racial society, and yet the undeniable ethnic-specific reality also exists: non-Jews need not apply.

I imagine it's the peculiarities of this complex argument that gives rise to a special name for being anti-Jewish, because calling it "racist" would seem to offer more confusion than understanding.

I know I'm taking profound points of self-identity (often held to the point of irrationality by many) and treating them as so many trade-able items. I make no bones about being casual in this manner, which I consider to be the essence of being American. And I readily stipulate than anyone's group identities are always perceived by that person as being far more profound than any outsider can understand. That's just the nature of the beast.

But I will confess a certain ambivalence on such things, and--again--that marks me as hopelessly American. For example, I am the only member of my family to date who's married a non-Catholic (the daughter of a Congregational minister, no less) who converted just before the wedding to make my parents happy. When, years later, we were fighting my first-born's cancer, we very casually switched from a Catholic parish to an Episcopalian one for a couple of years (baptizing our first son as an Episcopalian, which my parents took as a profound departure but which meant essentially nothing to me). Later on, when our kids got to grade-school age, we discovered we weren't rich enough to be Episcopalians (or at least pay for their version of parochial schooling), although, quite frankly, I would be surprised if I left this world a practicing Catholic, because (even more frankly), I love my wife more than Catholicism, which I don't confuse with my belief in God (which is profound) but rather consider one formal rule set for practicing that faith (and frankly, the Episcopalians got a cooler rule set). As for my ethnic identity, none of that blood stuff really holds anything for me, and whatever self-identity those ties gave me evaporated when we adopted a Chinese daughter. In the end, I consider my identity as overlapping and synthetic and flexible as that of these United States, which is why I consider this country the greatest place in the world to live and be whomever you want to be, aka, the pursuit of happiness.

So yeah, you can have an Arab Jew as president of Israel, but it would seem unlikely you could ever have a non-Jew as the president of Israel. Members of the Knesset, sure, but I don't see how Israel could allow them to become anything beyond a small minority. And that's a fundamental difference between what we call democracy and what Israel calls a democracy. Yes, there was a time when we claimed we had a democracy in which your black skin ruled out the possibility of your citizenship (your blood is "wrong"), and that was profoundly wrong. Of course, it would also be profoundly wrong to say you couldn't be a citizen of our country if you didn't believe in our officially sanctioned state religion (your faith is "wrong").

But you know what (as I anticipate the comments...)? It would still be wrong if your state combined those two notions in the following manner: you can become a citizen if your blood checks out, or if you convert to our implied state religion, but if you're not blessed in the first instance and unwilling to comply in the second instance, then you're automatically disqualified from membership in our country, because we have a collective identity to protect.

Now, if I'm wrongly interpreting what it takes to be an Israeli citizen, somebody please correct me and much of this post's logic will gladly dissolve, but it's long been my impression that only Jews (defined by blood or faith) are eligible to become full citizens of the state of Israel. If a Muslim resident living within the areas Israel controls enjoys all the same citizenship and political participation rights as any Jew living there, then I withdraw this post entirely and confess my profound ignorance on this particular subject.

But clearly, because of the diaspora, Israel's been able to build an amazingly globalized society that's a shining example of what needs to happen throughout the Arab world/Middle East, something I written about many times in the past. It has achieved a very decent and noble form of democracy as well, despite the implied political apartheid between those considered real citizens and those people who just happen to live there (Carter's attempted point). In many ways, then, Israel is a model for globalization, like the United States.

But none of that changes the underlying reality that Israel's identity as a state is built on a combined blood tie/religious identity of its people, and to me (and this has been my point all along in these posts), that gets a lot harder over time as globalization penetrates the region and demands economic and social and political change from the countries there (and no, I would expect Israel to make any great progress on this front absent similar movement by the countries around it, because that would be asking too much; then again, that harsh reality suggests that a region-wide security-political dialogue is therefore all the more necessary if states are going to make these progressions in tandem).

And as I've written before, I don't think Israel's plight is particularly unique in that way. I think France is being forced to redefine its Frenchness, with the underlying driver being demographics. The same thing is happening in Japan, a notoriously insular, racially-specific nation.

God knows it's been happening here in the United States since the beginning of our nation. But the key thing that's saved us throughout (but not without our share of bloodshed) is the founding vision that there be a separation of church and state. Jews can apply for full citizenship here. So can Muslims. So can Christians. So can anybody.

And that's why America, the most synthetic of racial identities (and yes, we're getting there on religion too, which is why you see so much resistance from the religious right) on the planet, is the best and most logical sourcecode for globalization's advance.

The same challenge facing all these states is also happening with my primary pre-American homeland: Ireland. Ireland's historical diaspora was and remains vast, as the island, through various forms of difficulties and oppression by others, has always been a place to leave, not to stay.

Now, as Ireland's successfully globalized its economy (which came with a clear diminution of the influence of the Catholic Church, meaning secularization), it confronts the strange reality that non-Irish want to immigrate there.

Now, ask yourself, what would it seem like if Dublin put forth a law stating that the only immigrants it would let in would be those with strong blood-tie Irish standing, and that the only people who could become full citizens would be those who could prove their Irish blood tie, or, if they couldn't, at least had to convert to Catholicism.

Would that seem racist?

My guess is that Ireland would be decried as racist the world over, or at the very least a systematic religious persecutor.

And if the Irish government, long persecuted both in their homeland and pretty much everywhere else they went originally as immigrants (they were routinely considered "non-whites" when they landed in America in the 19th century, for example), stated that it had the historic right to pursue these policies to retain the essential character of the Irish tribe and to counter-act those past historical sins, would that pass muster in most people's minds? Or would it come off as hopelessly backward for an era in which the movement of people--and their multiple identities--across borders seems historically destined to match the rapid and free movement of goods, services and intellectual content (all of which is bound up in multiple and overlapping identities) across borders?

Now take that thought and think again about the EU's apparent unwillingness to admit Turkey, and tell me that isn't basically the same deal: a combined blood-and-faith exclusion?

If that issue alone defined Israel, it probably get a free pass from everybody on the basis of past suffering, despite the fact that those who were asked to give up the most to make this rectification happen (the Palestinians), basically had nothing to do with the Holocaust (Ahmadinejad's snarky jab). And I mean that seriously, because world history is crammed with people driven from original lands. Frankly, that is human history, to include our treatment of basically every other species on the planet.

But clearly something had to be done in the aftermath of World War II, so the world goes along with the creation of the state of Israel, and now you have only the most recalcitrant fighting the notion that Israel has a right to exist. Not a perfect solution, but--historically speaking--it beat the alternative.

And again, if that's all there was, the problem would seem much smaller.

But because of the dynamic by which Arab neighbors tried repeatedly to dissolve Israel through war, Israel grew by land expansion in defensive retaliation. And through time, some of that expansion has been effectively recognized (the whole argument about the 1967 borders, for example).

And here, the dynamic is not unlike the sort of "defensive acquisition" claimed by America vis-a-vis Native Americans as our country expanded across the 1800s, a long and bloody history in which whites repeatedly struck out against Native Americans after the latter began retaliating for progressive incursions into lands previously declared off-limits to whites and to be kept in perpetuity for the natives. With each war, the white settlers would claim more Indian land, and the tribes would be forced to accept yet another treaty defining yet another off-limits land until Native Americans were so cowed and decimated that only a fragment of the original numbers retained their collective identity on the reservation system America created.

Nowadays, that historical wrong seems partially corrected by the special, nation-within-a-nation schemes that allow gambling to become legal on tribal lands. At least that's what we non-Native Americans tell ourselves.

But with Israel, the demographics are completely reversed: it's the Palestinians (both within Israel proper and in the West Bank and Gaza) who are having lotsa babies and it's Israel worrying about becoming demographically crowded out (the reality for Native Americans throughout the expansion of the U.S.). Naturally, it's much easier for a tribe that's having lotsa babies to keep up the fight, and when you add in the reality that Palestine (the historical geographic entity) is the home to sacred sites for three of the world's major religions (Judaism, Christianity, Islam), you've naturally got a lot of outside interested parties.

Fortunately, for Israel, it also has interested outside parties. As with any ex-pat (if you want to include all Jews who "left" the homeland centuries ago) population, the most vociferous and unblinking supporters for the cause back home are found inside the ex-pat group. Why? Guilt, pure and simple. That's why the IRA could tap Irish funders so easily in the U.S. all those years, and it's why the Jewish lobby in the U.S. is so strong. Hell, it's why it's not hard to find ex-pats always chomping at the bit for America to go topple that horrible dictator back home (our Iraqis, our Iranians, our Cubans--you name it). The blood tie, no matter how time passes, is typically very easy to tap ("If you were a true X, you'd be fighting for your people's freedom back home right now, so the least you can do is give money/political support/etc."). The American Jewish lobby is hardly unique in this regard, just very successful. And if you say that's only because money talks, well then I say, welcome to America!

And I say that with no cynicism whatsoever, because our democracy has always been fed by our market success, far more than the other way around, so it's only natural that political influence reflects economic success. Worked for my Irish. Working for the Indians (from India, that is) right now. As American as apple pie and Mom (not that the blood tie matters...).

Israel's also had the U.S. as a strong ally, because we feel profound guilt over the Holocaust (to wit, we've got a Holocaust memorial in the center of our capital, which is kind of weird by any reasonable measure, because last time I checked, that entire ugly show was based in Europe; and yet, our inaction was a clear sin, so there's some logic there; it's just so odd that the Native Americans couldn't get such a museum first), and because it only made sense for us to support a democracy in that sea of authoritarianism.

But back to my original point in this non-consecutive string of posts: Israel's got a real problem in trying to retain an exclusionary blood/religious identity in an era of globalization. And I make that point in the same manner I make the point about why the Israeli-Palestinian conflict changes nothing about the Arab world's problem with globalization (as in, remove Israel from the equation and the Middle East still sucks at globalization, and that's the real problem in the end--not Israel).

Remove Iran and its threat of nukes and Israel's still got a serious problem with retaining an exclusionary identity in a globalized world. Remove all the Palestinians and the problem's still there. Remove Islam as a whole and the problem's still there.

The problem is always still there because the world is moving inexorably toward a future of multiple and over-lapping identities for everyone, so that nation-states, in the logic of Juan Enriquez, will be increasingly defined--brand-wise--for the excellence of the services they provide. In a sense then, the same civic pride competition we've long had in America gets replicated the world over: "Live in France, where you'll never have to worry again about X, Y, and Z!" "If you lived in Iceland, you'd be home by now!"

In that future world, if your brand is self-limited ("Come live here, but only if your blood tie can be proven or you agree to our faith and no others!"), you will not survive--plain and simple (the basic pathway awaiting intolerant Islamic states). You'll shrink, others will grow, and eventually your claim to equal status with the rest of the world's identities (currently called nations) will fall by the wayside. You can say, "they'll just have babies like crazy to surive," but then you look at Iran, and it's clear that authoritarianism begets unhappiness and unhappiness ain't great for making babies.

Citing this profound challenge for Israel is not to pretend Israel's the only nation facing it. The entire world is facing this challenge. In the future, we'll see nations fade away just like languages fade away--unless they synthesize and abandon exclusionary practices.

I tend to have very low thresholds for liking books: if the volume contains one idea that triggers new thinking in my head, I like that book, no matter how many flaws others may see in it. For that reason, I'm glad Jimmy Carter wrote his book, because it's triggered a lot of thinking in myself and a lot of debate among others that I think is both useful and long-needed.

Yes, Carter's attempts to further debate will be attacked by Israel's strongest supporters in that sort of all-or-nothing way that they've always employed against anyone who raises any criticisms of their beloved country. Like another tight tribe, known as the Marines, Israel's self-awareness of its vulnerability as an institution makes it (and its supporters) close ranks like few collective identities in the world when it senses danger. Such strong supporters will attack any argument with the justification that "if we give them an inch, they'll take a yard."

I understand that logic. I just think it'll get increasingly harder for Israel's supporters to maintain it in the future, because globalization enables and promotes individual identity, not tribal identity. So states that maximize their citizens' potential for self-growth and creativity through multiple and overlapping individual identities will flourish, and those that restrict their pool of fully functioning citizens through exclusionary race-and-or-religious-based discriminatory practices will eventually marginalize themselves because the costs involved will poison their societies.

In that sense, Israel truly is a Core-like state trapped in a larger Gap reality.

Do I extend that dire analysis to Jews the world over? Hardly. Again, I think individual identities survive just fine in this globalized world, and there will be concentrations of identity in every state. People simply like to self-select geographically speaking. I just don't see states surviving along these lines, no matter what their historical justifications (just watch Utah lose its Mormon-ness progressively with time).

On the other hand, that's why faith in America's future knows no bounds.

As with all posts, this one is subject to further adjustment depending on what I learn and how my thinking changes. So I thank everyone again for commenting on previous posts, even as I note that ones decrying even worse situations in neighboring countries only state the obvious (which I believe I've stipulated in print more than most) and divert my argument for no useful purpose (last time I asked the Lord, pointing to another's sins does not justify your own).

Tom around the web

Let's start with the references to Tom's appearance on Hugh's show:
+ Hugh's got a new post up about hosting Tom for 8 weeks.
+ ZenPundit comments on the 8-week experiment.
+ Dumb looks still free linked Tom on Hugh (but isn't very germane...)

+ Defense Tech linked Petraeus and Fallon are good choices.
+ So did Hot soup in my eye.
+ So did The Glittering Eye.
+ So did Penraker.

+ Blue Crab Boulevard links An article I've been waiting years to blog.
+ So did NC Media Watch.
+ So did Dave Porter.

+ ZenPundit referenced Weblogs can push the IC.
+ So did Haft of the Spear

+ Dave Porter also linked China can't control its 'cults'.
+ So did Mapping Strategy.

+ Indistinct Union linked Enough of the hedgehog.
+ So did Uncurious George.

+ ShrinkWrapped linked Tom in his discussion of The Mystery of Capital.
+ gmgDesign linked Tom's foreign policy wishlist.

On the other hand...

Thought about this some more while skating at a rink with my kids, hip hop pounding through my skull (which actually helped with the in-line skating, which is harder than it looks).

The bit about countries competing for citizens in the future like cities do inside America today got me thinking that maybe Israel does speak to the future of globalization more than I give it credit for (so tied is it in regional security issues).

There's no question that Israel is one of the most globalized economies and societies in the world. It really has no choice, given the regional hostility and the small size of its market (it's like . . . a major U.S. city). To start a business in Israel means you've gotta set your sights on so much more than Israel if you have any ambition for growth.

Thus, by all descriptions, Israel's got a risk-tolerant entrepreneurial environment second only to the U.S. (really, it's the two of us and the rest of the world), and frankly, for this Gentile (who never felt more Catholic than the moment when I met my Jewish girlfriend's father my freshman year in college and realized that no matter what she or I felt, this relationship was never going to go anywhere), that's my biggest attraction to the country (and why I think, along with its liberated women, it scares its neighbors so).

So you think about an Israel and it's almost like a bedroom community within globalization: doesn't really have much to do with the neighborhood and other than a minimal domestic focus (the basics of life), its economy is largely outwardly focused. I mean, clearly, Israel's located there because of the Holy Lands, but other than that, Israel as a concept of concentrating the world's Jews could be anywhere (Ron White's got a funny bit on that).

So putting aside the religious conflict issue, maybe Israel's a poorly appreciated model of what ethnic enclaving might eventually look like in the future: bedroom communities that attract specific ethnic groups with the promise of gated-community security. "Come here and be among your own!"

Maybe we'll see states somewhat superseded by these ethnically-shaped urban entities.

What triggered this thought, which I toss out like everything else in this blog (not to offend, but to share in real-time [or, "pontificate on" according to those whom I fear take this blog--and blogs in general--too seriously]), is the personal realization that I'm living right now in a state I would not otherwise choose (no offense to Indiana), and the reason why I'm living here is my wife's mother. "I married the eldest daughter," is my usual reply to the question, "why did you pick Indiana?"

Admittedly, Indianapolis is a bedroom community as far as I'm concerned. I don't really work here, although we pay taxes, buy stuff from local vendors, and have our kids go to school here. But truth be told, we're here primarily according to the Meussling family's "law of return," which is a fairly universal one: marry the eldest daughter and you better expect to live within a short drive of your mother-in-law about the time she approaches retirement age.

Frankly, we're sort of odd ducks here: pretty liberal couple (although the Dems can't really stand me for my foreign policy views) living in a Red Sea, where I couldn't even find a Democrat to vote for in local elections (because none were running)! So yeah, I sort of feel for Israel on that basis, and maybe now I'm wondering if their model is more workable than I realized.

Of course, none of this logic erases the underlying demographic threat Israel faces. I'm just suggesting that Israel's fate is perhaps far from historically sealed.

Plus, I guess I just wanted to end this series on a more hopeful note.

"Not worried about Iran getting nukes..."

As those who warn Hugh Hewitt against engaging me in interviews describe my position on Iran.

Isn't it amazing that a guy who supported (and still supports) the war in Iraq and advocates regime change in North Korea is so easily characterized as some surrender monkey on Iran simply because I have the unfortunate tendency to point out that there's nothing we can or will do militarily against Iran before it gets the bomb--primarily because of the Iraq tie-down?

Even better is the notion that I want to "give Taiwan to the commies" (as if we can find any in China nowadays) simply because I don't want to see our entire military force structure held hostage to this fantastically defined requirement and would prefer to exploit China's already large presence inside the Gap for our own purposes (no, no, please don't offer any grand strategy like that when we prefer focusing our entire long-term acquisition strategy on the high-end Taiwan scenario, no matter how many Marines and Army that kills between now and that mythical date!).

Too often in the blogosphere, being a hawk is confused with advocating military interventions in all occasions, no matter how fantastic the prospect.

And that is a sad reflection of the state of our current public dialogue on grand strategy, which consists of primarily "over [somebody else's] dead body" versus "cut and run."

Being a grand strategist ain't about telling you what you want to hear. It's about telling you what you need to hear.

January 8, 2007

Why Tom?

Dean Barnett, Hugh Hewitt's co-weblogger, has a post today entitled Why Barnett?. In it, Dean answers a question he's been getting from readers: “How come Hugh is focusing on this guy [Tom] when he’s wrong about (fill in the blank)?”

Dean and Hugh and Tom disagree about many things, I'm sure. Dean pointed out the Packers and Favre. But Dean's short reason is '"The Pentagon’s New Map” is a powerful piece of intellectual software.' Check out the whole post and the comments.

I stand corrected on the specifics of Israel... [updated]

...but as a result am more worried than ever about its long-term prospects

Thanks to commenters' inputs on a previous post concerning the details of citizenship in Israel, I withdraw much of my criticism--both implied and explicit--regarding the current state of formal laws discriminating against non-Jews living within Israel proper (the most recent post). The situation seems more defined by informal means than "ones on the books," so the comparisons (interally, at least) are more contemporary when it comes to U.S. history (like civil rights for African-Americans over the past several decades, which is why Israel's supreme court is such a crucial player).

This new knowledge makes me more understanding of why Israel is so nervous about the long-term demographics (the enlightenment of laws created decades earlier didn't foresee the demographic shift--save the specifically crafted Law of Return).

Internally, I would expect the pervasive informal discrimination to get worse over time, to include--as we see here in the States with Hispanics and other immigrants--increasing attempts to formalize into law new mechanisms (beyond the Law of Return) whose aim is to preserve clear majority status for Jews over the long term.

I know a lot of observers argue that Israel's policies in the West Bank and Gaza are heavily colored by this long-term fear (the focus of Carter's book), and I would expect those strategies to get more explicit and obvious over time as well--although it's hard to beat the security fence for explicitness (as we are soon to find out ourselves).

Thomas Friedman (among others) pushes the interesting historical analogy that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is to the Long War (actually, I think he's still running with the "world war-something" crowd) what the Spanish Civil War was to WWII: a proving ground.

To the extent this proves true, Israel's attempts to stave off the unfavorable demographic trends may well presage Europe's, where I believe scale factors and assimilation capacity are far more favorably arrayed--for Europe.

In that way, whatever perversion of Israel's democratic tradition unfolds (e.g., recent rough talk from a senior official about loyalty oaths and deportations) may well serve to dissuade Europe from similarly desperate measures, thus elevating the utility of political co-optation through the accepted rise of Muslim immigrant-focused parties that are progressively mainstreamed (in Israel, such a progression would need to occur within an overarching one-state solution that seems fantastic from today's vantage point).

In short, not every "proof" need presage similar bad choices or tactics or outcomes elsewhere. We've seen Israel educate us positively in the past on many related security issues. Maybe it can do the same negatively regarding what should and should not be tried in pursuit of perserving a nation's perceived cultural birthright/identity.

Conversely, it's no surprise that a demographically rich Core country like China has the easiest time arguing (and to a lesser extent, practicing) policies of cultural "noninterference" abroad (even as it can be rather ruthless about such matters in its internal "frontier" areas). When you've got surplus bodies and spend most of your time trying to control population growth, you look at the world differently--i.e., you naturally think of an expanding frontier and not a fenced-off gated community.

This is why I argue for turning the immigration "threat" on its head--as in, why not get back into the business of adding more states and keeping America open for new members?

Suffice it to say, that the Gap's frequently frightening demonstrations of civilization's thin veneer in their own countries typically scares the hell of us in the Core, convincing many--in the manner of Mark Steyn--that the West is "doomed " unless we systematically mirror-image the perceived threat instead of remaining true to what got us strong in the first place and retaining more faith in the resilience of our political, social and economic cultures.

Hmm, looking over this post I find even more interesting things to think about regarding the film "Children of Men," which is an extreme depiction of such fears (no babies presages end times for civilization). I'm definitely going to have to read P.D. James' original novel.

Further thoughts:

Of course, I stand ready to instantly recant any portion of this post that's patently "untrue!" As I learned long ago on the subject of Israel-v-Palestinians, "insurmountable facts" can be amassed for all conceivable positions!

And if my flip style offends, then please move along, because this is a blog, not a press release. I know a lot of people take their (and others') blogs very seriously (and I welcome their patient lecturing), but I--unfortunately--do not.

I write this blog only for myself, because that's what works best for me. So I'm more than happy to offend, screw up, misstate, or just plain get it wrong, because this is the space where I do that.

When I want to be more careful, I write a column, or beyond that an article, or beyond that books. The blog sits at the bottom of that foodchain, where richness is held supreme and reach is--quite frankly--ignored.

And yes, by such statements I am rehashing old, touchstone arguments that I've employed here many times in the past. Why? The assumption that Hewitt's interviews are triggering any influx of new blog readers.

Strange sort of welcome, I know,but better to be straightforward from the start, no?

January 9, 2007

Another way Iran is like Brezhnevian USSR

ARTICLE: Huge cost of Iranian brain drain, By Frances Harrison, BBC News, January 8, 2007.

Fascinating. According to the IMF, out of 90 countries it recently examined, Iran has the biggest brain drain going on. Informal estimates of students taking exams designed to facillitate their departure suggests a dramtic increase since Ahmadinejad came to power in 05.

Sound like a country on the rise? Or--again--does it remind you of late Brezhnevian USSR?

Thanks to Bryan Wilson for sending this in.

Briefing CJTF-HOA

ARTICLE: U.S. Strike in Somalia Targets Al-Qaeda Figure, By Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, January 9, 2007

Interesting timing for me personally on the Somalia strike by our forces out of Djibouti, because I spent yesterday afternoon briefing 100-plus command element officers of Combine Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa in their Mission Rehearsal Exercise (their prep before heading over) at Joint Forces Command in Norfolk, VA. I then went out for a long dinner with the senior-most officers, enjoying a great discussion.

What CJTF-HOA is doing is the most advanced expression of the SysAdmin concept, which is why I was brought in (although, as always, they demanded a name change, which always makes me laugh--like I care what they call it!). Abizaid has routinely described CJTF-HOA as the future of the Long War.

But what impressed me most about these men and women was how strongly they believed, and how cognizant they were, that they were making history by forging new levels and forms of interagency and international cooperation.

Naturally, it was very interesting to discuss with them their perceptions of the Chinese in Africa.

All in all, an amazing day that left me feeling proud and honored to have participated in my own grand strategic way (meaning, I was awfully high-level compared to the rest of the MRX, which is painstakingly specific in its training across a host of very complex subject matter, replete with a senior retired flag mentor with extensive in-theater experience). In that sense, I was sort of the strategic pep talk.

Sitting with the flags that afternoon during some of the detail work. I got a bit nervous that my stuff would seem too esoteric, but "pep talk" isn't a facetious phrase on my part, because it was a fairly rocking audience (admittedly, in part because of the humor, which is designed for mil audiences because it's been with them that I grew up intellectually) for a 1600-1800 brief after a day starting at 0800. But judging by all the smiles and vigorous handshakes afterwards, people were really psyched by the material, which on some level never ceases to amaze me.

I guess everybody who does this sort of stuff truly hungers to feel and understand the larger strategic implications of their efforts and sacrifices.

It is--in short--very deeply connecting.

Then again, the WAPO story is about guys getting very deeply disconnected, but that only emphasizes that the SysAdmin function will always include direct action as required (with those SOF guys who never go "off-season").

Tom on Hugh's show today!

Don't forget, Tom will be on Hugh Hewitt's show today, the 2nd hour, to talk about chapter 1 of PNM. I'll post the audio and transcript links as soon as I get them.

January 10, 2007

Thornberry praises Tom

ARTICLE: Before the surge, By Michael Scherer, Salon, Jan. 9, 2007

Google wrote to tell me about this article that says Rep. Mac Thornberry ( (R-TX) 'praised' Tom and PNM at a Center for Strategic and International Studies Monday.

(Note: you have to agree to watch one short Flash ad to read the article for free.)

First full hour on Hugh's show

Felt okay about that first hour. Pretty jumpy in first section, and then made dedicated effort to slow down in subsequent ones.

The challenges: 1) adjusting to all that time! (I keep wanting to try and cover too much ground in one answer), and 2) dealing with one-off questions made possible by all that time (I will confess that I was thrown by the first question from Hugh on "what is grand strategy?" In hundreds of hours of interviews over the past three years, no one has ever asked me that question!

Deep down, I always feel like I suck after an appearance (you're never as good as you want to be, plus the weird subjective experience is very hard to judge in real time. I'll listen tomorrow and the first time it'll sound really bad. Then the second time it'll sound not too bad, and the third will actually sound okay.

Another reality: first hour-long radio for me in a long stretch (anything over 3 months is FOREVER!) So I expect to feel much more relaxed each week.

Weird bit: while you hear commercials, I get filler music and the voice of God announcing every 15 seconds that "the Hugh Hewitt show will return in X minutes and X seconds!" The countdown is a bit unnerving (should I run to the head and back? Should I practice an answer? Geeez! NOW I have a better answer to that last one!).

Confession: 9 total hours of sleep Sun and Mon nights, due to incredibly early flights in morning. That made it tougher (I am always a bit vaguer when low on sleep).

Best news? Appreciation of both callers and Hugh's producer on my effort and format.

Lesson? You try your best no matter what and it usually works out.

Audio's up

Here's the link to Tom's first full hour appearance on Hugh's show. I don't see a transcript yet.

Also, the thread Hugh put up has, again, some interesting comments and some not worth printing.

Finally, and I'll post this again next week, in those comments someone helpfully linked an AZ radio station where it looks like you can listen to Hugh live online, in case that's more convenient for you.

Transcript's up

The transcript from Tom's appearance on Hugh's show yesterday is now up, linked from this post where Hugh put up what he considered to be a key excerpt.

The excerpt I liked best was the first caller:


Dave: Thank you, Hugh. I want to thank you for having such a great guest, and having such a intelligent discussion on grand strategy. I’m a military officer, working long range strategic planning for a command that deals back, of course, with the Pentagon. And everything he said is right on about non-material versus material solutions. As soon as you start to try to make wide swings in non-material approach, or a different approach, you affect the juggernaut of the things that you purchase. I would like to make the point that often we do, we are able to make some changes, and they usually are coincident with other big social event, military event, something that you could tie to and justify. He’s right on there. I’m going to find your book, sir, and make it a part of my education. I appreciate you talking about things in grand strategy like instruments of power, like diplomatic, military, informational, economic, these are all very important things that tie into how we move our big, grand strategy forward, and I’m so tired in the media of hearing these simplistic bumper stickers, and somebody’s got another strategy, and they expect it to be all military or all information, or all diplomatic. I just thank you, Hugh, for bringing this great topic forward, and bringing this guest to the radio.

Talking surge on WAPO radio

ARTICLE: With Iraq Speech, Bush to Pull Away From His Generals, By Michael Abramowitz, Robin Wright and Thomas E. Ricks, Washington Post, January 10, 2007; Page A01

Went on WAPO radio with Jim Bohannon yesterday morn for quick 5 minutes. Ended up talking new counter-insurgency and modularization of the army, even tough pre-interview with producer was all about troop surge strategy.

Here's (at least) what I said to the producer off-air:

1) I like the people picks of late (Gates, Petraeus, Fallon, Negroponte, McConnell).

2) I can support a surge, plus a Baghdad focus, plus new jobs-creation spending and more State oversight on the ground for reconstruction (though I fear CSIS Rick Barton's critique of too little, too late is true)

3) If all that was combined with a diplomatic initiative to dialogue on regional security issues with Syria, Iran, Israel and Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, the EU, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Russia and China (with all putting some skin in the game--either literal and figurative), THEN I'd be behind this 100 percent.

4) Absent 3 (or at least the talking part designed to start some permanent regional security forum), I have a hard time foreseeing success here.

5) For now, it's our lack of strategic imagination on diplomacy that's hurting most, and since I don't expect Bush to fire Rice, I think Bush is pretty much done with his presidency in terms of initiatives in foreign policy. To me, this is too much "stay the course" stll and not enough serious effort to keep the Big Bang rolling. In short, this is not a strategy to win, but one designed to keep not losing and basically pass this problem on to the next administration.

The one wild card left for me with Bush and Cheney is if they try a significant air strike on Iran before leaving office.

The latest on the column

I've been asking Scripps Howard if they knew how to gauge how many outlets were picking up my column. I got this interesting reply, apparently from my handler there:

There are more than one answer to that question, depending on why the question is asked. But despite the fuzzy math, you could safely say that about 300 newspapers, newsletters and Web sites subscribe to the news service. You might also tell him there is an established pattern when we put new columns on the wire. And that pattern is there is a slow, gradual and fairly predictable growth over the first 9 to 12 months. The smaller newspapers usually commit first, followed by the larger newspapers and, finally, the middle sized newspapers. That usually happens regardless of what type of column it may be. And to help that along, I've begun moving his columns on Fridays, rather than on a time-available schedule, because for a newspaper to commit on a weekly basis, the column must get to them on a predictable schedule. Otherwise, they use it only on a space available basis. And a Friday schedule currently is the one with the least competition and where he likely will get the most looks.

Interesting no? Especially the bit about small, then large, then medium.

Signed 4 paperback Blueprint for Action's in Borders of D Gate at Dulles

Nice to see them so prominently displayed.

That new 'special relationship' again

ARTICLE: Mutual Interest: The United States and China find themselves with a common cause, Times Online, January 10, 2007

A simplistic comparison to some, a profound realization to others.

But no question about it, the reproducible strategic concept of Sino-American alliance is spreading.

And yes, I am testing Chapter One readers...

Thanks to Michal Shapiro for sending this.

Another good look-ahead on Cuba post-Castro

ARTICLE: "Cuban Economists Envision Role For Markets in Post-Castro Era," by Bob Davis, Wall Street Journal, 10 January 2006, p. A1.

Great stuff. Just seeing this thinking out in the open even before Castro croaks is a very good sign.

And the scenario described here is very realistic: small marketizing reforms at first, with no explicit acceptance of foreign direct investment (but just watch the informal flows boom from Miami) and once they get so far with that and no further, they'll want serious money and the opening-up process will rapidly balloon out of control.

Raul will rule with committees galore and new names will rise that we've never heard of before.

Then before he croaks (or when), we'll see serious reformers step up, "new era" and all that, and the popular push for direct elections will begin.

None of this happens overnight, but within five years Cuba is unrecognizable. The young will love it and dub it the "second revolution" and the old will be baffled and nostagically pine for the good old days. Old Miami Cubans will be shocked that the Cuba of their youth is not resurrectable, but they won't care given all the freedom to visit back and forth.

Sooner than any can imagine, life in Cuba will ramp up so close to that in Miami, the talk will begin of going all the way toward joining the U.S. Then, depending on the presidential election year, you'll start seeing Cuban statehood as a staple of Florida's electoral quid pro quo (just like sanctions support got you the Cuban vote in the past).

Going to be fascinating to watch.

Treating Iran as logical swing asset

OP-ED: "Two Alliances: U.S.-Sunni versus U.S.-Shiite," by Edward Luttwak, Wall Street Journal, 10 January 2006, p.A17.

Great piece by Luttwak exploring how sometimes (in Iraq) we need to be pro-Shiia and not be afraid of making Sunni states nervous and sometimes (in Lebanon vis-a-vis Syria) we need to be pro-Sunni and not worry about making Shiia leaders (Syria, Iran) nervous.

To me, that comes a lot closer to playing the board instead of having the board play you and--in effect--keeping the Big Bang alive (which Luttwak suggests is happening).

That's a key point we often forget: just because Iraq goes south doesn't mean the Big Bang dies. The BB is about shaking up existing orders and making others possible, and to me, that includes being realistic about what comes next, which is Shiia revivalism, to use Nasr's term.

That's a helluva useful thing to put into play. Scary to some, but--again--let's be realistic about two things: 1) Tom Jefferson ain't the next guy who'll show up when you topple the typical dictator (that's just too big a leap) and 2) that development gets us back in the business of competing directly with Osama (we both want to destabilize corrupt authoritarian regimes in the region, we just want different outcomes).

Now, where Luttwak doesn't go is where I'm dying to go: play Iran more as a scary balancer. The more we dialogue (none yet) with Iran on Iraq, the more we freak the Saudis and the easier it becomes to splinter Syria because we're basically playing prisoner's dilemma with both Damascus and Iran--as in, who's gonna bite first because we'll go harder on the other next.

Beyond that, I also advocate talking direct to Iran on the nukes issues, playing them like a USSR on missiles by linking carrots of connectivity with greater assurances that we'll not invade, thus giving rising pragmatists and moderates inside Iran something to reach for besides perceived humiliation in caving in to the Americans. Ahmadinejad's just been "thumped" on the mid-term elections, with Rafsanjani clearly resurrecting. We need to exploit that dynamic to our own, soft-kill ends.

But instead, we play the Big Bang 3-D chess game on just one level--hell, mostly just one square called Baghdad!

And that's too bad. A serious Henry Kissinger-James Baker type would be shuttling like mad, playing angle off angle. Instead we have talking-point Condi and just-say-no Cheney letting all the sacrifice for, and early momentum of, the Big Bang go largely to waste.

Again, it's a fundamental lack of strategic imagination.

Great financial map

ARTICLE: "World's Assets Hit Record Value Of $140 Trillion," by Joanna Slater, Wall Street Journal, 10 January 2006, p. C8.

McKinsey report generates map of financial assets flows and holdings among world's great regions.

One missrepresentation, IMHO, is showing Singapore and Hong Kong like some isolated offshoot of Euro/UK (colonial habit, one imagines), when all that money flowing into both also overwhelmingly flies right out again to developing Asia and especially China (something the map seems to ignore, but I know happens in bulk because FDI flows outward as a percentage of GDP in these two financial hubs is virtually as high as the inward flow percentages).

Other than that weird bit, a cool map very much like ones I drew for the FDI "economic security exercise" with Cantor Fitzgerald atop the World Trade Center back in 2000 (see here for details).

Factoid of note: America attracts 85 percentage of all money put on the table by asset-exporting regions.

The future? Asset flows are expected to grow 50 percent faster than goods and services in coming years.

Total financial flows in 2005 were $6T, twice the flow in 2002 and significantly higher than in 1999, the height of the bubble.

Yes, yes, globalization is "in retreat" and soon to "end." Light up your doobie on that one, because as you know (he pauses while holding his lungs for effect), "those damn terrorists are running everything maaaaaaaaaan!"

There are those who understand the force and those who only see the friction.

There are those who see only war and those who get the "everything else.

Want to be a grand strategist?

Or do you want to live out your lives in fear, letting others define your nightmares while you give up on your dreams?

Morning glory indeed. Globalization's greatest push is just beginning...

Tom on Hugh's show

I'm going to use this post, and link to it from the top of this column, to keep track of Tom's appearances on Hugh's show, with transcripts, and audio. They are covering PNM chapter by chapter.

+ Introduction, January 5th Audio | Transcript
+ Chapter 1, January 9th: Audio | Transcript
+ Chapter 2, January 16th, Audio | Transcript
+ Chapter 3, January 23rd, Audio | Transcript
+ Chapter 4, January 30th, Audio | Transcript
+ Chapter 5, February 6th, Audio | Transcript
+ Chapter 6, February 13th, Audio | Transcript
+ Chapter 7, February 20th, Audio | Transcript
+ Chapter 8, February 27th, Audio | Transcript

January 11, 2007

The SysAdmin has been in Iraq for a long time, now comes the belated attempt at Development in a Box

Lotta people sending me emails about Bush's speech last night: Do I see the SysAdmin emerging in Iraq finally?

To me, events in Iraq have been molding the SysAdmin function/force for several years in Iraq (with some of those effects felt primarily back here), to include things like the splitting of the command there a while back (one to fight, one to train), the new counter-insurgency doctrine back here, DoD directive 3000 (demanding commands plan equally for postwar, etc.

What I saw in the president's speech last night was more the realization that jobs are the ultimate exit strategy, thus the first enunciation of something very close to what Steve DeAngelis and I have been advocating for a while with Development in a Box (right down to the infrastructure czar).

To that end, Steve and I are co-posting a joint blog entry later this morning on the subject.

As I've said many times before, these changes don't come about because they're cool or visionary. They come about because the failures demand them.

Confronting Iran may doom Iraq goals

ARTICLE: To Counter Iran’s Role in Iraq, Bush Moves Beyond Diplomacy, By HELENE COOPER and MARK MAZZETTI, New York Times, January 11, 2007

This is where I part ways with Bush dramatically (Iran), as I argue in my column this weekend. Adding the Iranian fight on top of the Iraqi effort right now comes close to dooming our effort.

Iran will simply intensify the fight in Iraq and conflate it elsewhere, like it did in Lebanon last August. We'll feel more and worse short-term pain.

I mean, that's not even being clever on Iran's part, that's just not having their heads up their asses.

I agree you work Iran in the future if no improvement there, but why telegraph your punch endlessly with axis of evil back then and stuff like this now? How can this administration act with such secrecy and duplicitousness at home and remain so godawfully transparent to our enemies abroad? There's stupid in your living room and then there's stupid on my front lawn: I don't have to do anything about the former, but the latter will earn a response. I thought that response came with the November election, but Bush and Cheney are effectively blowing that popular will off, and you know what? This time those "dumb average Americans" are outperforming the Vulcans in more ways than I care to calculate.

If Bush made the Big Bang seem sequential (like the Balkans unfolded), then the American people would be able to come along. But if he makes it seem additive, as I arguedin PNM, he loses them, especially when Iran will forcefully pursue an asymmetrical strategy designed to prevent any effective U.S. response down the road.

Ahmadinejad did well by Bush's speech last night. Our troops will suffer as a result in Iraq.

This is Bush's biggest problem in grand strategic thinking: too expansive in defining enemies (especially over time, thus telegraphing punches way in advance), and way too unimaginative in defining friends.

The incurious president costs us a whole lot over the long haul of this Long War--i.e., he just doesn't seem to know enough about the world to overrule the neocon-in-chief, Cheney.

Who's on first in terms of WMD?

Another thing that baffles me with this neocon/hawk push to define Iran as near-term military action (e.g., pushing hard to position the "what is to be done?" argument in the 2008 race), is that Iran remains years away from the serious combo of missiles and nukes, while North Korea is already there today (tests missiles, detonated a nuke). North Korea can't fight us asymmetrically like Iran can due to our Iraq tie-down. Plus, dealing with NK first settles us out considerably with China, freeing resources in Asia for the fight and potentially tapping an ally with very similiar interests (you think China doesn't want cheap dependable oil from the Gulf?).

The radical Salafi jihadist movement's only hope long term is to pit rising East against aging West. By holding Iran short-term and China long-term as preferred enemies, the neocons and hawks do their myopic best to deliver this outcome right into bin Laden's hands with their inability to discriminate the strategic battlefield whatsoever. China's actions on energy signal a clear overlap on strategic interests, our willful ignorance of which is just plain sad. And conflating Iran-the-Shiia-threat with Al-Qaeda-the-Sunni-based-movement is just plain dumb. The conspiracy theorist in me just wonders if Bush simply does want one conflict following upon another, it's that strategically stupid.

Again, where is the grand strategic thinking with Bush and Cheney? Where is a sense of sequencing and making the fight as unfair to our enemies as possible by constantly maximizing our assets while minimizing theirs?

This is a Long War? But Bush fights it with no sense of time. If FDR had fought WWII like this, we would have invaded Europe and pushed on Japan at the same time (instead we worked Japan for years and didn't open real second front in Europe til summer 44--made possible by alliance with past-and-future foe (but then ally of convenience) Soviet Union.

Where is this sort of strategic vision from Bush? He and the neocons just seem to want to fight everybody all at once, which accomplishes the twin problems of: 1) making us look confused and isolated (who wants to join this merry-go-round approach?) and making us look ineffective (Iraq), which only emboldens our enemies more and cows potential allies.

Bush and Cheney are our own worst enemies in this regard. Their inability to think strategically preordains suboptimal outcomes. It is tragic, really, given the huge costs: people, money, but most of all--opportunity.

To me, this is a strategic incompetence that history will judge very harshly.

This administration is urgent in all the wrong places and slow-footed in all the necessary areas. Our leadership remains our greatest weakness.

Strategic Alzheimer's--coming to a grand strategist near me!

Just got off a conference call with about 40 people attending Don Beck's annual (or semi-?) "spiral dynamics" conference in DC.

I've done these conference calls for a while now, and I really love them, because I can totally riff off the top of my head, jazz-like, knowing I can keep the audience easily, this being such a smart, forward-leaning bunch and also a crew that knows my stuff intimately, thanks to Don.

So, it's a group I sort of trying out summing-up Grand Unifying Theory definitions.

Anyway, one question was about my critique of the aging Boomers' strategic leadership (14 years and counting now in the White House) and my hopes for a JFK-like jump to the next generation (that sliver I and so many others occupy between the tail end of the boom and the beginning of the X-gen demographic bust), and it amounted to challenging my assumption that all the long-term trends (huge pulse coming in Asia for global economy, accessing that infrastructural build-out gives us the knowledge to sell to the bottom of the Gap pyramid, my usual arguments on demographics in the Middle East and the various Islamic reformations already in the works) favor us on globalization's continued advance. And this guy's question was a bit defensive because I went on and on previously about the conformity imprinting the Boomers got in the 1950s and how ultimately it limits their strategic imagination terribly--despite all the bullshit about free speech and free thinking from their coming-of-age Sixties experience), and he said--in effect-- that I was assuming the whole world wanted to get globalization and become Americans.

Of course, that's the old bugaboo that Thomas Friedman's brilliantly portrayed in "Lexus": the Egyptian who asks him, Does globalization mean we all have to become Americans?

And so I responded, as I always do on this point, that the future of globalization's cultural face is increasingly Asia, not the West, so I wasn't assuming any uniformity whatsoever, but one helluva diversity by our narrow standards (recalling my old joke on Rhode Island: "Diverse, hell yes! We've got both kinds of Catholics here: Irish and Portugese!).

Anyway, after the talk, I realized that if the Boomers' strategic imaginative moment was historically limited, that's no different from any generation, including mine and Obama's.

I got this first from Karl Marx himself, who said that any theoretician/visionary/whatever is always limited by his generational experience (actually, Marx's argument was about stages of history relating to capitalism's emergence), the simple concept being: we all eventually lose it.

I will lose it, probably in my early sixties. I know this, and my sense of a timeline forced by events beyond my control is no better or worse than Osama bin Laden's. I know the clock is running on me, and that soon enough, I'll lose the ability to think beyond the conventional wisdom, so infused will I be in it myself.

So another good reason to get Vol. III ("release the inner grand strategist in you!") down in print at the height of my powers, before the strategic Alzheimer's kicks in.

The New Iraq Strategy

"Tonight in Iraq, the Armed Forces of the United States are engaged in a struggle that will determine the direction of the global war on terror and our safety here at home. The new strategy I outline tonight will change America's course in Iraq, and help us succeed in the fight against terror. … It is clear that we need to change our strategy in Iraq."

With those words, President Bush began his long awaited speech about a new course for the war in Iraq. Although most pundits, and certainly the Democrat-controlled Congress, will focus on the fact that he is surging more than 20,000 troops, we are much more intrigued by the non-military strategy the President outlined -- the non-kinetics that will go along with the implied kinetic ability (i.e., use of weapons) of all those extra boots on the ground. Because this new non-traditional approach aligns closely with an approach we have been advocating as Development-in-a-Box, we (Stephen DeAngelis and Tom Barnett) decided to co-author a blog and post it simultaneously on our blog sites.

We are not certain that 20,000 new troops will be sufficient to secure the necessary stability to give the non-military strategy a chance to succeed, but we are heartened that the value of the non-military strategy we have been advocating -- very much in line also with the new counter-insurgency (COIN) doctrine published jointly by the Marines and Army -- is finally being recognized. We hope that it doesn’t come too late. The President stated:

"A successful strategy for Iraq goes beyond military operations. Ordinary Iraqi citizens must see that military operations are accompanied by visible improvements in their neighborhoods and communities. So America will hold the Iraqi government to the benchmarks it has announced. … To show that it is committed to delivering a better life, the Iraqi government will spend 10 billion dollars of its own money on reconstruction and infrastructure projects that will create new jobs. … We will give our commanders and civilians greater flexibility to spend funds for economic assistance. We will double the number of Provincial Reconstruction Teams. These teams bring together military and civilian experts to help local Iraqi communities pursue reconciliation, strengthen moderates, and speed the transition to Iraqi self reliance. And Secretary Rice will soon appoint a reconstruction coordinator in Baghdad to ensure better results for economic assistance being spent in Iraq."

The White House posted an outline of this new strategy and highlighted some of its key points. Among the actions that the coalition will take are these:

  • Support political moderates so they can take on the extremists.
  • Build and sustain strategic partnerships with moderate Shi'a, Sunnis, and Kurds.
  • Support the national compact and key elements of reconciliation with Iraqis in the lead.
  • Diversify U.S. efforts to foster political accommodation outside Baghdad (more flexibility for local commanders and civilian leaders).
  • Expand and increase the flexibility of the Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) footprint.
  • Focus U.S. political, security, and economic resources at local level to open space for moderates, with initial priority to Baghdad and Anbar.

To achieve some of these objectives, the President announced, "We also need to examine ways to mobilize talented American civilians to deploy overseas where they can help build democratic institutions in communities and nations recovering from war and tyranny." Enterra Solutions is committed to supporting these reconstruction efforts, whether it is helping the military Provincial Reconstruction Teams or other, purely civilian, efforts to help rebuild Iraq’s infrastructure.

The President and Congress agree that Iraqis must assume responsibility for security within the country. That is a tall order. But rebuilding infrastructure must be accomplished simultaneously with achieving security. We believe that our Development-in-a-Box approach, which embraces best practices and standards, local flexibility, capacity building, and broad-based communities of practice, offers a way forward. We look forward to working with others who also embrace this approach.

January 12, 2007

6 reasons not to worry about all those Chinese men

ARTICLE: Population Controls, Including Abortion, Spark Gender Imbalance in China; 30 Million More Men Expected in 15 Years, Friday, FOXNews.com, January 12, 2007

Spoke of this in BFA. The "bare branches" bit is way oversold.

First, many of these males are found in rural areas. Those who can make a good life will find a wife locally or import them from elsewhere in Asia. Not an historical first and not that hard. Middle-age Japanese men already importing Chinese wives.

Second, many of these men leave in undocumented fashion. Baby girls aborted or given up for adoption, but unattached males often sneak out as economic refugees in their early adulthood, which makes males the biggest village export from China right now (well-documented in NYT).

Third, by 2020 China will see 100 million of its citzens travel abroad each year, so personal access to foreign women hardly restricted.

Fourth, the notion of Chinese society casually sending off single sons to war is BS. In China they call it the 4-2-1 problem: 4 grandparents, 2 parents, one son to support all.

Fifth, China's PLA is moving away from bodies to capital, so little desire there to pack them up for war.

Sixth, the notion of social distress is mitigated by rising incomes, which facillitates for successful males the opportunities described above, and for unsuccessful ones, the chance to emmigrate (again, something that happens a lot).

Demographers tell us numbers but their track record on predicting social responses is very weak.

Bigger issue in my mind is rising elder population, mostly rural. To me, the excess-males-means-war scenario is yet another example of analysts trying to hold on to the China enemy image they so desperately desire. China has gone through, is going through now, and will go through in the future, so many harder issues that I tend to downplay the alleged profoundity of this trend. If China wasn't seeing so many rural males emmigrating now and wasn't opening up so much (to include a rapid rethink on sending off "unwanted daughters" (a historical blip soon to disappear as more childless Chinese couples begin to value girls more)), then I'd be worried, but all those things are happening.

Thanks to the reader who sent this in who might wish to remain nameless.

The swamping of my sked

Reality of next 12 days does not bode well for blog, so expect lotsa small entries fed mostly by readers. I have stack of papers to peruse (later arriving paper copies), but even those are being down-prioritized.

Bit of a perfect storm for me: gotta edit the Fast Company piece, gotta storm on something for Warren and Esquire, got a big Enterra strategy session stretching over days, plus two DC talks, plus a dinner theater with wife and in-laws, plus all the usual Enterra odds and ends and two columns to pen.

The good news: the new iMac is here for my office!

Cops before capital

POST: Cop Tech Key to Iraq Fight?

It's a simple observation to make, but most of the Gap's militaries are just national police in khaki or green, meaning their primary function is internal order--not external defense.

Even so, most Gap nations' effective police forces are the thinnest of thin blue lines, especially on a local basis. It's the opposite of the U.S., where our cops are bottom heavy in their distribution (no, not a doughnut jibe), meaning the bulk are local, then a thinner bulk at the county level, thinner still at the state trooper level, and then thinnest up at the national level.

So Bing (an old acquaintance from my time at the Center for Naval Analyses) is dead on in pointing out that the Iraqi military logically takes a back seat to the local Iraqi police in any scenario pathway you'd hope to call "successful."

And you don't hear as much about the cops as you do the military, but segueing from the latter to the former is a big deal in any postwar environment--the essence of a return to some normality (as corrupt as such institutions often are inside the Gap). Until cops replace soldiers, the forces of civilian recovery typically do not mobilize in critical mass numbers.

Private-sector capital flows (not public aid) are the Holy Grail of post-whatever recovery. As soon as some foreign capitalists trust your present enough to plant some big factory inside your border, you've got a future. You've been magically transformed from less-developed country to low-cost country.

That's because jobs are the only lasting exit strategy--not uniforms, but jobs.

But capital is a coward, so the cops matter first and foremost.

January 14, 2007

Is Gates really saying...

ARTICLE: Gates Ties Iraq Push to Drawdown: Successful Troop Boost Could Mean Withdrawal Starting by Year's End, He Says, By Josh White and Ann Scott Tyson, Washington Post, January 13, 2007; Page A01

Some telegraphing here by Gates: by end of year, expect Bush team to admit some version of failure with heavy blame on Iranian meddling (and there will be plenty, which will be progressively "discovered!" as year unfolds in a series of "disturbing revelations" that "no one could have seen coming!"--hence no blame assessed within administration), as White House gears up strong sale (already being pushed by GOP hawks on Hill) for military strikes against Tehran. The basic game plan? A new splendid little war to divert attention from numbers 1 (Afghanistan-bleeding-into -Pakistan) and 2 (Iraq collapsing in on itself).

Problem? Our only ally this time will be Israeli hawks.

This week's column

Iran: This emperor has no clothes

Americans swallow enemy propaganda at face value, subjecting us to knee-jerking manipulation by fiery orators. Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, with a few choice phrases, successfully elevates himself to the status of a Muslim "Hitler." But this populist windbag is already losing his grip in Tehran, giving Washington a strategic opportunity we don't yet appreciate.

While American neocons and Israeli hawks would bomb Iran today, lest it continue enriching uranium, try viewing the situation less emotionally.

Read on at KnoxNews
Read on at Scripps Howard

Tom around the web

+ Wilsonizer is reading PNM on Hugh's recommendation.
+ gringoman, a frequent commenter here, linked the weblog in a recent post.
+ Garrick Van Buren linked Talking surge on WAPO radio.
+ So did Right Talk.
+ Just as some of y'all took exception with Tom's assertion that he will lose his ability as a grand strategist as he ages in Strategic Alzheimer's--coming to a grand strategist near me!, so did A Midwest Journal.
+ Indistinct Union linked The New Iraq Strategy.
+ God is a Beer Drinker linked 6 reasons not to worry about all those Chinese men.
+ Valley of the Shadow gives Tom credit for Bush's Iraq plan being part of a 'Long Game'.
+ Badgers Forward, written by 'An Army Officer in Iraq commanding an Engineer Company', recommends reading Tom's books.
+ The Glittering Eye linked The SysAdmin has been in Iraq for a long time, now comes the belated attempt at Development in a Box.
+ So did Outside the Beltway.
+ TKS on National Review Online linked Hugh's first full interview with Tom.
+ So did NonParty Politics.

January 15, 2007

Greed will shrink the Gap

ARTICLE: Euro displaces dollar in bond markets, By David Oakley and Gillian Tett, Financial Times.com, January 14 2007

An interesting development that reflects the EU's aging (demographics) as much as its rise (growing liquidity enabled by single currency and greater reliance on bonds versus banks.

Scary to some (U.S. dominance challenged), but it signals a more efficient and agile global financial market (euros as alternative to dollar as circumstances demand).

As Asia's needs for more efficient financial markets grows (that great infrastructural build-out alone), watch the logic emerge for an Asian-wide single currency (built around pillars SK, Japan and China/India) that gives that part of the world the same options the EU is discovering, if only for the same social dynamic rapidly emerging there in due time (aging demographics means governments want to float more debt).

For now, rising Asia is useful to the aging West, because they'll buy our debts and assets as our Boomers retire in droves, cashing out of markets (for every seller there needs to be a buyer).

But take the next step, noting--for example--China's rapid aging (no demographic sweet spot lasts forever--notes the increasingly balding, middle-age-spreading Barnett) and ask yourself this question, "Who buys out the Chinese?"

That, my friends, is why the Gap will be shrunk.

Greed, for lack of a better word, is good.

It's also the most powerful social force in human history, dwarfing religious fervor by a huge margin.

Thanks to Terry Collier for sending this in.

Yes, I bought two seats down low

For those of you wondering, based on the Pats win... I got a pair on Stubhub this a.m.

Wanted to be close to see the look on Belichek's face...

Stubhub is a fascinating success story, BTW.

Socialism stinks

ARTICLE: In City Ban, a Sign of Wealth and Its Discontents, By JIM YARDLEY, New York Times, January 15, 2007

Great article by Yardley on China: all this connectivity creates new wealth. Now it's time for code (law) to catch up. When everyone's scrambling to get started, laws mostly get in the way. But as soon as some accumulation occurs, law gets pretty useful. It locks in success and without that lock-in (protection of wealth), people won't bother trying, yielding you some pointless, non-advancing zero-sum society in which souls are crushed and lives are cheap--in other words, socialism.

An ideological statement to some, especially those ignorant of the socialist bloc's supremely bad achievements across history.

Must-read article

ARTICLE: If you so dumb, how come you ain't poor?, By Spengler

Brilliantly written piece sent to me by fellow blogger who said he saw much confluence with my thinking (which, I admit, rarely gets packaged as densely as Spengler so effortlessly achieves--and yes, that makes me covetous, but in the best way). I would agree with that blogger's assessment only on my most optimistic, Bush-forgiving days. Then again, Spengler's arguments on Iran's endemic weakness, Israel's enduring strategic strengths, and America's and China's increasingly overlapping security and economic interests fit me any day of the week.

So why do I regularly bash Bush, in addition to consistently entertaining (even touting) the inevitable long-term success of his Big Bang strategy (also implied here--in that butt-ugly, 5GW sort of way that I have indulged in the past, only to be condemned by some for my casually bloodthirsty arguments--as in, OPB)?

First, there is a time and place for everything in terms of advancing my career, which interests me most in the venues provided for vision spreading and marketization (i.e., my work with Enterra). To pretend not to cover that square daily is disingenuous--or just plain stupid.

Second, there is a time and place for everything in keeping the vision real. As soon as the consistent partisan appeal is discerned, your utility as a grand strategist is profoundly marginalized. Some dig that path, but to me, it smacks too much of a dog eating his own vomit (neat trick, but why bother?).

Third, there's the intellectual honesty argument, a function of the second point but worth mentioning all on its own. Celebrity through partisanship is certainly an easier row to hoe, but it reminds me of the character Bernstein's line in "Citizen Kane": It's not hard to make a lot of money... if all you want to do is make a lot of money.

Third and finally, there is sticking with your core audience, which for me is officers just below, and just moving into, flag rank (and no, I don't need any third-party validation on that, because these people have never been shy around me). For them, noting how Bush makes them fight under some of the worst strategic circumstances possible is important. Bush is not only burning his way through his political capital with voters, he's doing the same with our military's human capital. Ignoring that cost would be profoundly dishonest on my part, costing me connectivity with that core audience, so I don't care what it sounds like to everyone else.

I know many readers would like a consistently pro-Dem or pro-Repub (and, for some dedicated die-hards, definitely a pro-Israeli) line from me, but this chess game is inevitably played on multiple levels, and so I simply lack the ambition to pigeon-hole myself so.

Frankly, if I did, I'd get so bored I'd soon forgo the effort. Why muscle your brain up over a lifetime to use it like that?

Ending this navel-gazing, this article is a must read. Brutally optimistic in a way that emphasizes the continuing importance of nation-states.

Thanks to Lexington Green for sending it.

Policing SysAdmin-like contractors

ARTICLE: New Law Could Subject Civilians to Military Trial: Provision Aimed at Contractors, but Some Fear It Will Sweep Up Other Workers, By Griff Witte, Washington Post, January 15, 2007; Page A01

On using military courts to police the SysAdmin activities of private security firms: this new rule set was inevitable, as are the fears of a slippery slope toward its overly expansive use.

If this was a purely U.S. question, we'd all be comforted by the self-correcting mechanism that is the U.S. court system, but where is that rule-set modulator on this issue internationally?

And please don't say the U.N., cause that's too scary in terms of bias toward state sovereignty (a lovingly quaint 20th century convention). In reality, the function is logically located in an International Criminal Court-like entity (though I confess ignorance as to what extent that body creates lasting and pervasive case law). But the trick with that is that I've always maintained that the ICC is Core law extended to the Gap (much as the beer commercials' "man law" aims futilely at corralling those uppity women!), meaning the ICC really codifies a temporally and geographically limited rule set (i.e., it applies to lawless Gap environments only insofar as they remain lawless--as in, join the Core and graduate out of ICC's effective jurisdiction).

In short, complex stuff, dynamically re-rendered depending on time and space.

Very Enterra-like, in that way.

The Military-Industrial's complex on the Long War

BOOK REVIEW: That damned, elusive Prussian, By Sam Leith

Tip and Run: The Untold Tragedy of the Great War in Africa, By Edward Paice, Orion, 488pp, £25, ISBN 9780297847090

In the Long War, the military is not only forced to return to society (the peace), but to nature (the off-grid Gap, which is very equatorial).

The military is loathe to move in this direction, because the fight requires small numbers of extremely well-trained professionals (if done effectively preemptively--as in winning Phase 0 vice waiting until Phase 3 to whip out the big guns), while the post-fight requires huge numbers of extremely well-trained individuals. Force structure-intensive, it is not.

That is why the mil-industrial complex is of two minds on the Long War, reminding me of the famous movie review that read "Loved Ben, Hated Hur": they "loved Leviathan, hated SysAdmin" during the Cold War, and now they fear the force structure implications of transformed war (the overmatch) but are excited by the infrastructural contracts and system integration work of the new peace (the great New-Core-followed-by-the-Gap build-out to come).

I'm not making that last part up: it's why I get all those speaking gigs with big corps.

Thanks to Lexington Green for sending this.

Each problem that I solved became a rule which served afterwards to solve other problems

QUOTE:

Each problem that I solved became a rule which served afterwards to solve other problems.

Rene Descartes
French mathematician & philosopher (1596 - 1650)
Source: The Quotations Page

Got this from new hire at Enterra (former Lead Architect of the Director of National Intelligence's Chief Information Office(r), meaning yes, now "Neo" and the "Architect" work on the same team--and if you don't get that reference, then search the blog). It is a way cool quote that speaks to my underlying logic on globalization to a T.

My thanks to Bryan. Enterra is ecstatic to have landed someone of Mr. Aucoin's incredible talents.

Who does Iran's propaganda really benefit?

OP-ED: Mullahs are vulnerable, By David Waddington, The Washington Times, Mon. 15 Jan 2007

A piece I obviously agree with, given my last column.

The problem is, of course, Iran's propaganda is so useful for those on our side who want us to preemptively wage war on Israel's behalf.

Me? If it comes to that, I'd much rather see Israel preempt and us finesse the after-effects. No need to buy the horse if all we want is the ride.

Thanks to Michael Frager for sending this.

Iraq drives transformation from the air to the ground

ARTICLE: Technology Will Be Key to Iraq Buildup, By David A. Fulghum, Aviation Now, 01/14/2007

Good piece that demonstrates how the high-tech Leviathan makes itself more useful to the SysAdmin troops on the ground.

Very evocative of former CNO Vern Clark's argument to me during Esquire interview that the military has basically scored (already) an 8 out of ten on transforming air power, but about a 2 out of ten on linking that air/network transformational capacity to boots on the ground. Thus my argument that Iraq drives transformation from the air to the ground, or from the Leviathan to the SysAdmin.

Thanks to Louis Heberlein for sending this.

Woolsey on Iran

Saw hardliner Woolsey testify with Thomas Pickering on Iran-as-threat to Lantos' House committee.

He is hard, but very intelligent and very persuasive. We shared a panel once at the Arlington Institute and I liked him personally despite all the differences.

My favorite bit on him shows the huge gap in our interpretations on Iran.

He compared Khatami to Kosygin (nice, but useless), and then compared Rafsanjani to... Andropov!

I loved the comparison, seeing the completed unfolding of my recent column (Andropov was the man most responsible for Gorbachev's rise).

Woolsey, of course, meant the comparison as a complete downer (the beginning of the apocalypse), while I saw it as pure opportunity.

Woolsey surprised me, because after he testified that Iran would basically get the bomb no matter what we'd do and that it would very likely use it immediately to attack Israel, America, and much of the world, he quickly followed up that stunningly dire assessment by arguing for a soft kill with support to dissident groups and an RFL/RL effort on the regime. His rationale? The military option wasn't particularly feasible/effective, so that's our best mid-term option.

I was a bit stunned: even after arguing a diametrically opposed view of Iran from my own, he came to a conclusion I've got no problem with, except he rules out any formal talks with Tehran (although he had no problem with informal ones--when pressed by Ackerman, whom I like).

When I heard Woolsey say that, I realized that I've never really argued for or against formal talks. To me, even my original proposal to send Baker implied that quasi-official-with-no-official-obligations-made approach.

And when I realized that, it dawned upon me that Woolsey and I are not very far apart on dealing with Iran near term.

And that felt weird...

January 16, 2007

The gist of the times [updated]

ARTICLE: "Enthusiasm for globalization ebbs: Economic conditions good, but gripes flow," by David J. Lynch, USA Today, 16 January 2006, p.1B.

Good summary piece that explores the strange mix of success and fear right now on globalization.

On the success side is the simple fact that the global economy is bigger and better and growing worldwide at a great clip (about 2-3 percent OECD, about 7-8 emerging markets, so a worldwide average of around 5 percent--which is phenomenally good in historical terms--as in, we've never had it so good and the future looks even better in terms of consumer demand, resource demand, infrastructural development and technological advances in numerous fields).

On the fear side is Chavezism, Putinism, resource re-nationalism in general, Doha taking too long as a WTO round (not exactly a new problem), and rising fear in America about job security among white collar workers. Add in the Dems increasingly hostile to free trade and a rising right-wing assault on immigration, and things seem highly charged.

The basic dynamic I fear: we pull back, China doesn't, and therefore China "must" be viewed as "expansionistic" and "hostile."

We are heading into a period of small minds and small visions, with fear mongering at a premium.

But I don't worry all that much because we regularly indulge that "little mind killer.'

Update: Steve posts on this today in Globalization's Ebb and Flow.

I wouldn't dream of giving up the blog

The Media Equation: 24-Hour Newspaper People, By DAVID CARR, New York Times, January 15, 2007

Very funny and dead-on piece passed on to me by elder brother, the guy who's been pushing me on religious freedom (reciprocity is Benedict's newer term) for a long time (and beginning to win, if you noted my reference on Hewitt's show last week).

Sean has helped me a lot in insulating myself from the day-to-day fiddling with the blog (especially managing comments, which I had killed a long time ago, resurrecting them with his hiring). He also handles the "odd jobs," meaning the visitors and readers I would instinctively tell to f--k off because... You know... They should really just f--k off. Sean handles them very well, reflecting his preacher past. He's gotten the vast majority off the ledge, with very few jumpers.

Sean also handles a lot of requests very adeptly, which is an enormous relief, because I get dozens and dozens of requests and offers every day, and the reality is that if I spend more than a minute (maybe 2) on any of them, my day would be shot (and my marriage).

So, for me, the blog's gotten down to a reasonably manageable deal: I just output as the spirit and material move me (with lotsa wonderful feeds from a core group of about 200 or so readers, the best of which (hint,hint) give me the URL, plus excerpts, plus their own analysis of why I'd be interested. The worst ones just send attached files and announce they'd like my detailed analysis--like some teacher or boss giving me an assignment!

They're bad because attachments are hard on the Treo (I don't condemn all senders, because sometimes it's the only way to get the stuff and sometimes I'm asking for it), it's just the people with the imperious tones who act like I naturally owe them something.

Then there are those who've seen me on TV or heard me on the radio briefly and they've scanned a few blog entries and maybe read a review or two of the books (but not the books themselves) and they send me 16 super-long detailed questions (most of which I've dealt with ad nauseum elsewhere but they want this private grilling session/tutorial from me personally because "I'm not quite convinced you're not totally wrong and perhaps even an evil historical force who must be stopped!.

Those people, I love to answer with "f--k off," but I usually tell them no work assignments until they read both books and come back with specific questions. Why? I'm way too busy with just those people who've read both books, are easy to interact with, and boost my thinking. Plus, those readers ask questions that push me as opposed to force me into regurgitating exercises for the lazy/cheap types who want it spoon fed.

Others who piss me off regularly are those who lecture me incessantly like a lost soul who's clearly a great thinker and influential thought leader--except I transgress them on this one pet point or generalized partisan mindset, which they simply never shut up about, so convinced are they that the fate/outome of this one element/approach/party (and I do mean both) determines all. Why these people bother with me, the horizontal thinker who generalizes and synthesizes from many, many sources, all the time emphasizing no great hierarchies but rather sequencing, I'll never know. But these people are hard to shut down, they are just so desperate to convert you.

Naturally, you suffer the self-important jerks who can't make their own web presence happen enough, so they spend their time trashing yours. I described this phenom in DC terms in New Map, but it exists in spades online, because you have a lot of aspirational experts desperate for acclaim and unwillingly to put in the career that's required.

Balancing all that, though, are the far larger groups of polite readers trying to learn more, avocational types who treat you with more respect than your real-world peers, wonderful de facto research assistants who teach you something new and valuable every week (some almost daily), fellow bloggers who both praise and criticize with supreme intellectual honesty and elevate your material or turn your head with their own original stuff, and all those mil and intell personnel who give great feedback from the field, pats on the back, and very useful unanticipated dope. Finally, there are a small universe of people who connect to me from all over the world, like some grad student this morning from Serbia born with cerebral palsy who just read BFA and wanted to connect personally.

So all in all, worth the effort and time, so long as you can budget in the required help. For me, it took a long time and many iterations to find Jenn Posda (agent for everything besides books and articles) and Sean Meade (webmaster), but now that those relationships are solid and thriving, I wouldn't dream of giving up the blog, and I see it as anything but a drain. I can't tell you how many public and private sector venues I regularly step into where the blog has already created a profound intellectual intimacy. Then there's the quotes and sourcing in other media, plus the appearances and interviews created (that part is really taking off because most MSM producers are Echo Boomer 20-somethings who scour the web).

The same is rapidly becoming true for Steve DeAngelis. Both of us see the blogs as huge biz assets in thought leadership, which is almost as important to our company (Enterra Solutions) as raising money and winning contracts and hiring people. How so? Visioneering is essential to leading great change and defining new markets. If you can't do that, you won't get money and you won't win clients and it's harder to attract top talent--simple as that.

Finally, the blog, which I've been doing in various alternative forms going back to the "Emily Updates" emails I sent out on my daughter's battle with cancer back in the mid-90s, is just a huge filing system for me, or a content management system for data collection that I've done going back to the early 1980s (clipping thousands of articles as just a visioneering exercise drill). Putting everything online in a searchable database is just so damn cool, I'd blog for that alone.

And I really do blog for just that alone, which keeps me more personal and idiosyncratic and less corporate than so many blogs are becoming. Then again, I just couldn't blog as anybody other than myself, with no pseudonyms or masks.

To me, that more personal tone suits my emerging passion (natural, given my age) for raising the next generation of strategic thinkers. I was stunned at how--when I was in school--there was nothing to read of any practical basis for learning about my chosen field in advance except theory textbooks (almost useless and often wildly divergent from reality--as I have discovered) and memoirs by retired giants (which is like reading long-term cancer survivor studies and trying to relate that ancient history to the treatment you're getting right now).

Finally finally, the blog is ego-feeding in a great way (which is why so many people do them and find them so gratifying) that sustains the huge ego requirements associated with being a grand strategist/visionary (show me the shy, wishy-washy visionary, and I'll show you somebody nobody knows about). Sure, it'd be cool to be obscure, then die young, and have your stuff celebrated throughout time.

My problem with that approach is: 1) I enjoy my life too much, and 2) the failure rate on that approach (waiting for my "genius" to be discovered) is phenomenally high, primarily because a mismatch between ego and influence/accomplishments usually drives thinkers to self-destructive behavior/personality evolution and plenty of mental disease. There are--quite frankly--a lot of great minds out there who simply can't manage the human interaction side without prohibitive mental health cost.

So the blog does these things for me on that score: by publishing my inner dialogue, 1) I entice others down the same relatively successful (and healthy, by my count) path, 2) I keep my own ego up (ego maintenance and modulation is a crucial enabling task in this work as you have to be simultaneously inspring and thrilling and larger-than-life but also approachable, self-deprecating enough to be funny (a huge asset), and open to real-time learning (know why my brief is so good? I aggressively incorporate criticisms), and 3) I reveal inner logic as it develops, allowing influences to penetrate my thinking real-time, keeping my thinking relatively nimble and young (staving off the strategic Alzheimer's I fear).

To sum up, great article that really got me thinking in Vol. III terms.

My thanks, as always, to brother Jerome.

January 17, 2007

Tom on Hugh yesterday

Both the transcript and the audio are up. Enjoy.

Second show much easier with Hugh

Don't think outcome any diffferent, although maybe a bit better. Hugh still Hugh. Just felt I was more relaxed, so we trip over each other less and the exchange is more informal and rapid-fire.

Best sign: half way through I forget I'm on the air and it's just like I'm going back and forth with colleague. That sense of un-self-awareness always welcome, though I gotta watch my... As my Mom puts it, penchant for vulgarities.

So I catch a few "hells" and twist them into "hecks" and stop that "by God" and slap an "sh" on the end instead.

Gotta respect your host on that score. Plus it really is vulgar and reflects spending my entire career of working with military personnel--especially Marines.

We started a bit late due to phone connection difficulties, but I'm sure Hewitt's people made that seem all transparent to listeners. Can't be first time.

As I indicated to Hugh, I'm enjoying this a lot. Feels a bit like a VH-1 segment, because I wrote this book over 4 years ago!

Then again, that just makes me all the more proud. Can't ask for more than a book that ages well...

And another thing...

Gotta admit I was lost with "titanium hulls" question about "Soviets." Guessed he was talking Russians, as did Hugh.

Anyone care to enlighten me on that?

How to write so Tom will reply/post [updated]

Update: the latest

In text of email is good.

Working links are good.

All attachments suck.

I blog mostly off my phone now (yes, I type incredibly fast), and I just junk the attachments and the cryptic link-only emails.

I need a hint, or an excerpt, or the text. I need to be able to process the whole email in about 30 seconds.

Any longer is too long, given the several hundred substantive emails I get in a day.

A number of things about Tom's post yesterday, I wouldn't dream of giving up the blog, caught my eye (and not just the nice stuff about me either ;-).

One of them was this part about the best material we send him:

I just output as the spirit and material move me (with lotsa wonderful feeds from a core group of about 200 or so readers, the best of which (hint,hint) give me the URL, plus excerpts, plus their own analysis of why I'd be interested.

I'm like, 'Dang! I haven't even been doing that and I'm the webmaster!' ;-)

This obviously goes for email and comments. So I'm putting it up here as a reminder and will be linking it from the contact page, the comment policy, and the comments box.

And don't forget:


No work assignments until they read both books and come back with specific questions.

Got it? Now, go forth and multiply ;-)

With friends like these...

ARTICLE: "Gulf Allies Support Goals Of New U.S. Strategy in Iraq: A carefully worded endorsement, but no commitments to help," by Thom Shanker, New York Times, 17 January 2006, p. A9.

ARTICLE: Insurgencies Rarely Win – And Iraq Won’t Be Any Different (Maybe), By Donald Stoker, January 2007

Not a great sign: we're basically down to Saudi Arabia and the GCC and all they're offering are words to the effect that they desperately want Iraq not to break up.

Their commitments to that end? None really. They just really really really don't want that to happen, because if it did, they'd finally be forced into doing something.

We are past the point of "winning" against the insurgency, which--by and large--has been superseded by the dynamics of sectarian violence aimed at the 3-state solution (for lack of a better phrase).

So while the Stokes article is both hopeful and correct, it's also an OBE observation--as in, overtaken by events.

Bush and Co. had their chance with the insurgency. This show is now all about managing Iraq's devolution so that enough unity (or at least the functional facade of unity) can be maintained for eventual economic solution sets to emerge.

As I started writing (now) years ago, the real exit strategy is jobs. Problem for Bush is, once you spiral a society deep into 70 percent unemployment, you've lost all control of the "reconstruction."

Now it's the construction of Iraq 2.0. No matter how that unfolds, no one is going to paint it as a "victory" in any recognizable sense.

So please, do yourself a favor and avoid any "winning/losing" arguments, because they are meaningless.

That's the reality we face, given the choices we've made to date.

Hugh's take on yesterday's show...

is up now. He titled it "The Age Of Carriers Is Over." (Sort Of.), which is provocative, and he features a quote on that, and elicits comments on that.

However, he talks more about the format of an ongoing, weekly series on one book.

January 18, 2007

Democracy...

Is based upon the conviction that there are extraordinary possibilities in ordinary people.

Harry Emerson Fosdick, 1878-1969

The correlation of policy-debate forces on Iran

ARTICLE: Washington 'snubbed Iran offer', BBC NEWS, January 18,2007

The correlation of policy-debate forces are lining up nicely: for every slickly-packaged Bush "revelation" on Iran, those who oppose his approach release their own.

Bit of a game, yes, and it's always fascinating to see when and under what conditions stuff you've known about for years becomes public knowledge. But this a fight worth waging, because, if left unmatched, I do believe Cheney pulls the trigger on his way out the door.

Thanks to Mike Frager for sending this.

Infantile US Strategy on China

ARTICLE: Chinese Test Anti-Satellite Weapon, By Craig Covault, Aviation Week & Space Technology, 01/17/2007

A shocking surprise to some, but to me this is part and parcel of China's modernization effort designed to threaten our high-tech ability to threaten their somewhat lower-tech ability to threaten Taiwan's lower-tech ability to make good on their threat to declare independence.

But people have to remember that America regularly "attacks" (really, is it an "attack" to blow up your own targets?) missiles with other missiles, and that capability says to China, "we think we can do dangerous stuff to you and NOT be subject to your missile threats."

You can say, "But America only makes such tests to prepare for true bad guys!" And China will say the same thing.

But this is routine hypocrisy for us: all our "tests" are to preserve "peace" (meaning our ability to project power militarily anywhere in the world without effective resistance from anybody), while all their "attacks" are clearly designed to threaten global stability.

This is the essence of the primacy argument of the neocons: America must not only have the biggest gun, but the only gun worth mentioning. If anyone reaches for one, they are automatically bad unless they're already in bed with us (meaning we sell it to them).

Is this a grown-up attitude WRT China? No, strategically it's infantile, given the everything else going on in China, the world, America, and between us and China.

But the hawks want their war calculations held strictly within the context of war and nuttin' else. That way, our "requirement" to weaponize space can proceed apace, with our side trusting the Chinese space hawks to continually return the favor tit for tat.

Yet another implicit U.S.- Chinese strategic partnership that keeps the mil-industrial complex on both sides happy.

Thanks to Eric Hansen for sending this.

The stress of the road

Got home tonight after 4 nights on road. I really hate going that long.

Sunday crack-of-dawn I'm flying to DC to start 3-day Enterra exec retreat. I look around and realize I've got the third-longest tenure as exec after CEO Steve DeAngelis and our HR head. That's how fast time's flown by and that's how fast we're growing.

Got my weekly column done on the side. It's about America's essential resilience.

Tuesday Steve and I have a stunning meet with this huge and very old multinational with big ambitions in trusted banking of complex data that various parties in any complex global endeavor want to share, but in such a way as to deny any one player control--a very interesting and common problem we're encountering in industry after industry. It's like we've created this new global currency of data, and now the world wants a secure global banking system to go with it. Naturally this esteemed company's interest (it's one of the longest standing foreign firms incorporated in the U.S.) in Enterra is our ability to dynamically re-render rules on the fly. We expect to do great things all over the dial with this European firm.

Tuesday night I do Hugh's show from a DC hotel. Bit of a trick getting connected, so a few minutes lost.

Wednesday is meetings with Steve, then I chill the late afternoon by spending 2 hours in what I feel is my favorite art museum in the world (after the Hermitage in St. Pete): the National Portrait Gallery, a hidden gem in DC. Then I catch "Dreamgirls" (very good).

Up this morn (Thurs), I brief the HELP Commission (lost on acronym), the latest Congessionally-mandated commission set up by Frank Wolf (he who set up the Iraq Study Group).

The HELP commission is to propose what the future organizational standing of USAID should be. A few possibilities: arm of State, total merger with State, keep foreign aid spread across so many agencies, or set up a Department of... I dunno... everything else!

Guess why I'm brought in to testify.

I share stage with Brooking's Lael Brainerd, who is very sharp. She's got a new edited report/book out called "Security by Other Means." Judging by her slides, a must read. I gave her a card as I dashed out and asked for a copy.

Then speeding cab to CNA Corp for U.S. Navy conference on future roles and missions. I was the keynote lunch speech to about 150 mil and gov and research types.

Both talks very nicely received. Can see the follow-on invites coming.

Then to Dulles for flight home, during which I organize a year's worth of clippings I've dragged around with me all this trip in an extra piece of luggage. Gotta start a piece for Mark Warren and Esquire tomorrow and need first draft out the door by kickoff Sunday night.

I will be living in the home office this weekend....

I find myself dreaming--literally--of a simpler life. I can't believe it's still just January and already I'm feeling a bit burned out. Gotta recharge with the family big-time this weekend--and write that bit for Warren.

January 19, 2007

PNM, BFA ROTC demand

Tom got this email:

Dr. Barnett,

Wanted to share an anecdote. I was a relatively "early adapter" to PNM when it caught my attention on Amazon or some other online bookseller. Have since purchased BFA as well, the CSPAN DVD of your presentation, etc. and have shared your ideas with friends on the left and right many times in the past few years. You and I also exchanged a few emails a year or two back....I've always been impressed by the thinking behind what you write. Don't always agree with it, don't always like it, but always respect it.

Anyway, I have a pile of military history books sitting on my shelves, and frankly, it's getting dangerously large and threatening the well-being of the various small children and animals running around the house. I recently decided to offer the lot to a local Army ROTC program, and they asked for a list so they could pick and choose what they thought would be best for their purposes. You may be happy to know that your two books made their short list, and while I'm sad to see them being boxed up now for delivery, I'm thrilled to donate your thinking to the future platoon leaders, division commanders, and possible JCS Chairmen of this wonderful country. Your legacy lives on!

Thanks for writing in, John!

Can Israel and Iran grow up?

ARTICLE: Rebuke in Iran to Its President on Nuclear Role, By NAZILA FATHI and MICHAEL SLACKMAN, New York Times, January 19, 2007

More evidence of Ahmadinejad's declining stock.

Meanwhile talk grows in Israel of a second Holocaust and pre-emptive nuclear strikes on Iran (Israel's getting bolder about admitting it's had nukes for decades).

All I can say to Israelis is welcome to our world, for now it faces the same conditons and decisions we encountered half a century ago (and have lived with ever since): possible annihilation versus the chance to kill millions in a nuclear holocaust. The choice is very Old Testament, the escape route very New Testament.

A magnificent power it is, the ability to extinguish entire peoples and wipe countries off the map. Historically, it clarifies the strategic mind (America remains the only country ever to use them--despite all the logical predictions of their inevitable re-use by "irrational" regimes over the subsequent decades). What Israel's got to figure out is whether they want peace more than death. The Core is defined by that decision, the Gap by its inability to confront it.

America heard the threats of "we will bury you" when we didn't enjoy the strategic superiority that Israel has so long held, thanks in large part to all that military aid from us. But somehow we moved beyond those threats and fears and made peace with an enemy whose whole ideology centered on our destruction (yes, yes, we now all remember the Sovs as cuddly thugs with no ideologies whatsoever, so it was all just a fantastic dream). We did so by growing up and leaving behind our own apocalyptic fantasies (it always takes two to tango).

Big question is whether Israel can do the same, or whether they instinctively, out of their own long history of defining themselves--as nationalists the Gap over are wont to do--primarily in terms of shared suffering at the hands of others (the source of all chips on all shoulders, with everyone's injustice being far worse than everyone else's--by definition), continue their eye-for-an-eye approach ("it takes a tank to raze a village" being Israel's patented counter-insurgency tactic) that has gotten them no strategic security to date--just more of the diabolical same from enemies whose death cult far surpasses its own in perceived righteousness (all killing is "justified" in the Middle East, according to the murderous logic of its practitioners).

Of course, the whole Middle East is built around this vengeance model (the ultimate in infantile zero-sum logic, suggesting an evolutionary retardation of the most primitive sort), which is why, no matter Israel's many laudable achievements, it remains hopelessly trapped inside the Gap.

Eventually, somebody sees a better deal to be cut with the outside world, and that somebody needs to be a Muslim state that shows real power and dignity can be achieved through brains instead of just oil and violence. Israel cannot prove that for the Muslim Arab/Persian world, that can only occur from within its ranks.

But Iran moving to nukes is more pretext than problem: all it does is speed up the inevitable choices on all sides--just like for us, the Europeans, the Slavs and the Chinese.

There is nothing new or unique in this dynamic, just the past refusing to die in a part of the world where its grip on minds is stunningly strong.

Everyone's excuse for inaction remains the same: what he did! Strategically speaking, it is passivity and fatalism of the worst sort.

America should not get sucked into this fatalistic logic by our own irrationals who will say either we act or it's the end of civilization and perhaps even the "end times."

Nothing would end with the Middle East's strategic suicide--at least nothing that matters to the Core. The adjustment would be made, and we'd simply move on, calm in the knowledge that Darwinian self-selection still works to the benefit of all mankind.

January 20, 2007

What if China tanks?

ARTICLE: Q&A: Author Will Hutton on China's Future, By James Pethokoukis, USNews.com, 1/5/07

Good examination of our economic interdependence with China.

Breaking in the new office

Really only got my home office exactly the way I want it just this last week: all the furniture located just so, all the pictures hung, the new iMac to replace the aging Gateway, finally a printer, and so on. Part of that was just the reality of getting totally and finally moved into this house (e.g, we've now just hung every painting and picture that we wanted to decorate the house with, following the Xmas season we've now opened and repacked everything we keep in storage). Another part was truly getting adjusted to the new schools (everyone switched from last year). Still another part was my continually hectic schedule and the overhang of discombobulation from spending our first ten months in Indiana in a cramped apartment with the vast bulk of our stuff in storage.

But now, after all that confusion, I find myself sitting in an office just the way I've always wanted it, in a house that's just the way I've always wanted it, with a mix of work and homelife that's . . . worth the hassle given all the goals being simultaneously pursued (no point in saving the world unless you preserve the family, and no sense in preserving the family if you ain't gonna save the world), I find myself writing a new article (proposed) for Esquire and it feels like a new chapter for me.

Trying something both radically different and somewhat familiar with this one, and having fun. Have no idea if Warren will like it, much less publish it, but it's been a good intellectual drill regardless.

Getting psyched for the game tomorrow. It'll be historic no matter what happens...

Tom's column this week

Putting a man on the moon, or anywhere disaster strikes

In the future dystopian film "Children of Men," Britain soldiers on with a Ministry of Homeland Security whose forces scour the island for illegal immigrants. Evoking a siege mentality in a world suffering from an infertility crisis, security equates to sealed borders that hold a chaotic world at bay.

General David Petraeus, new commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, tells of encountering the man-on-the-moon syndrome among Iraqis following Saddam's fall: "If America can put a man on the moon," they surmised, "then surely it can rebuild Iraq quickly!" Following Hurricane Katrina, that naive assumption seemed wholly disproved back home. We couldn't manage New Orleans, so what made us think we'd fix Baghdad?

Read on at KnoxNews.
Read on at Scripps Howard.

January 21, 2007

Tom around the web

+ Indistinct Union linked Is Gates really saying....
+ Hidden Unities linked Petraeus and Fallon are good choices.
+ NonParty Politics linked the transcript from the coverage of PNM's first chapter on Hugh's show.
+ So did Penraker.
+ Humoud linked Time for America to grow up about the global connectivity of foreign direct investment.
+ Opposed Systems Design linked FEMA: we don't budget for disasters and The virtuous circle on security: the slippery slope to resiliency.
+ leahpeah linked I wouldn't dream of giving up the blog.
+ Phil Windley's Technometria linked Can Israel and Iran grow up?.
+ Observing Japan linked Infantile US Strategy on China.
+ So did The Moderate Voice.
+ So did ATARAXIA.
+ Juan Freire, writing in Spanish, linked Tom's weblog as an interesting reference for 'open source war' and 'net war'.
+ ZenPundit linked the transcript for the coverage of the second chapter of PHM on Hugh's show.
+ So did Power Line.
+ Dumb Looks Still Free did a long post on it.
+ A Fistful of Euros linked today's column and Can Israel and Iran grow up?.
+ Mike Burleson referred to Tom's take on Petraeus in Monks of War in his editorial Bush Finds a General.
+ 21st Century Schizoid Man linked last week's column.
+ Big Lizards said he wanted 'to find something to complain about ever since he dissed naval air on Hugh Hewitt's show', so he picked last week's column. (I didn't find the critique effective.)
+ New Yorker in DC linked Getting smart on Sys Admin: the crashing course.

+ And finally, when Critt couldn't find an online link to the paper where he saw Tom's column, The Patriot Ledger, Monday, January 8, 2007, editorial page, he sent in a scan. I forgot to post it last week, but here it is this week. Thanks, Critt!

tpmb_column.jpg

January 22, 2007

An amazing game

Sat behind the Pats bench, 3rd row, exactly on the 25 (far left as you look at the TV screen).

Place was rocking at two hours before the game, and fans were screaming themselves hoarse during warm-ups as faces of players were flashed on the big screens during warm-ups.

We (Vonne and I) were sitting with a bunch of original season ticket holders from the 1984 season (after Irsay had snuck the franchise out of Baltimore during the previous winter), so these people had waited 22 years for this day (first home AFC championship, which is big as it gets for any home crowd).

When Pats scored easily at first, you could sense some angst. Then we got the FG and felt okay. Then the Pats march again and we're all getting far more nervous, but the intense yelling during the Pats offensive plays doesn't abate whatsoever (we stood for the entire game in our section).

Then Peyton immediately follows up with the INT for TD and we're down 21-3.

That was definitely the low-point.

Then we drive and come up with just an FG before half, and the long-timer next to me comes back at kickoff with AFC Champs T-shirt he just bought. Now that's optimistic at 21-6 down!

I told wife that first drive would either indicate big adjustment (their corners were shutting down the outside lanes on Harrison and Wayne very well, so you sort of expected more over-the-middle stuff to backs and TE) or signal a very long game.

Fortunately the former was true, and TE Clark started to kill the Pats over the middle.

So it was 3 TDs in a row for us, with first two tying Pats at 21 (with a 2-point thrown in) and third getting us even again at 28 following that bad call on Gaffney's back-of-endzone catch for Pats (he had stepped OOB just prior to jumping up for the catch--or so we fans judged).

Both times Pats got back ahead at 28 and 31, they had big KO returns, which just killed us all night (the special teams), so there was this feeling we could only overcome that so many times and we'd run out of luck.

But Manning was brilliant, even as Wayne and Harrison were clearly subpar most of the night, so he gets huge credit. He was pressured on many of his throws and got hit a lot, but he is such a joy to watch, especially all that audibilizing he does.

The last drive for the TD was a thing of beauty, naturally, sending the place into a frenzy.

Today my throat is pretty blown out and my ears still ring some. Being in the third row was magnificent, because so much of the game was right smack in front of us (we often had to duck to look under moving camera-guy's line-of-scrimmage platform).

Additional bit: row behind us was all Pats fans who bought, like I did, great season tix from locals (Colts fans known as soft touch on that, and I think because it's a lot of money for people around here). They were unbearable from the start, loudly proclaiming how the Pats would whip us and how we were all chokers and what not. At 21-3 they were calling friends on phones and bragging in advance of the partying they'd be doing all night, and cautioning each other out loud not to celebrate too much in the 2nd quarter when they'd be so busy in the 4th. They also took turns guessing how bad the final score would be.

I tell you, it was hard to silently take it all in.

Boy, were they all silent as soon as the opening 3rd quarter drive began. From that point on only whispering among themselves. They slinked out at the end, leaving us to the celebration.

Psyched that it'll be Indiana v. Illinois. Frantic couple of weeks foreseen. Many bragging rights up in the air.

Really hope Colts get the title. Last one here was ABA in '73, so the state is due

Pix from the game

Here are the pictures that Tom took at the game.

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January 23, 2007

Turkish compilation

Tom got an email from his Turkish Publisher:

My name is Onur Þen and I am the editor of Prestij & 1001 Books, which published your books, The Pentagon's New Map and Blueprint for Action. We would like to prepare a book compiling some of your articles with an introduction written by you If this is possible. Our main concern for the book will be Middle East, USA's new foreign policies, China, The Role of Turkey in the new world etc. I want to learn your reaction to this project. What do you think?

Tom's comment:

I was just thinking about somebody stepping up to offer this, given the volume build-up since 2003. Peters just cranked a collecton of his columns and articles.

Hadn't guessed Turks would jump first, and yet these guys are the only foreign publishers to do both volumes. Guess it just makes sense that seam states most interested and Turkey is the king of the Seam.

Easy prediction to make

ARTICLE: General May See Early Success in Iraq: But Sharp Rise in Insurgent Violence Could Soon Follow, Officials Say, By Thomas E. Ricks, Washington Post, January 23, 2007; Page A01

Everyone knows surge is to pave withdrawal and history of insurgencies says they always ratchet up violence at end. Why? Want to create impression that occupier forced to pull out because of that ramping up. Very effective strategy and--of course--somewhat true.

Hezbollah and Hamas do this every time with Israel's withdrawals, so makes sense to expect it here.

Petareus will have his hands full, unfortunately

ARTICLE: In the Vortex of Baghdad, Staying Put This Time, By MARC SANTORA, New York Times, January 23, 2007

Supporting evidence on our fortessing strategy versus their ramping up of Baghdad bombings.

Bunch of signed paper BFAs at Reagan Airport Borders

Dropped in because I was passing through today and have signed copies there before, so wanted to see if they had sold.

They had, so I signed 11 more. They had 5 in history and 6 up front on display at the door.

Never in too big a hurry to skip that duty...

Bush risks leaving global security worse than he found it

ARTICLE: World View of US Role Goes From Bad to Worse

This is a huge and growing problem for America. You can say, "We gotta do what we gotta do!" But when your war is waged--inevitably--within the context of the everything else that is globalization (What is globalization? It sure provides more work-arounds than gate-keepers), that just isn't good enough. That attitude gets you stalemates at best, and quagmires at worst.

Me? I like to win--all the time And America can't win with a rule-set population of 1-and-a-half (us and hardliners in Israel) in a world of close to a couple hundred (and counting) statesl

That, my friends, is the grand strategy equivalent of pissing in the wind. Basically, it's a terrible way of washing your socks (I prefer taking myself to the cleaners).

Bush first-term was great for establishing the need for a new rule set on global security.

Bush second-term has been a disaster in getting buy-in from the world. So bad, in fact, that he risks leaving the global security order far worse than he found it, and that's too bad, because I believe he was the right man for the job. He just stayed too long at his post.

January 24, 2007

Tom on Hugh's show

The transcript and audio are up.

I liked this last question from Hugh and Tom's answer:


HH: Dr. Barnett, putting Chapter 3 into context, imagine for a moment that after General Petraeus was done testifying today, you had a chance to make an opening statement to the Senate Armed Services Committee. What would you say in the first two or three minutes of that statement to them?

TB: What I would say is that we really have to think more broadly about what we’re trying to achieve in the Middle East, other than just create a security force that’s able to generate enough security to kind of cover the tracks of our withdrawal, or to put enough names on doors inside of government buildings, and claim that we’ve built a nation along those lines, that we really need to commit ourselves, first and foremost, to creating the economic conditions by which Iraq brings itself up from this long, lengthy period of dictatorship, and now this seemingly also quite long period of violence, that it’s our commitment to connecting the Middle East up to the outside world on the basis of something other than oil, that’s going to get the kind of economic opportunity that puts 70% of a lot of these countries’ populations that are either underemployed, or totally unemployed, and don’t see futures to connect to. And it’s that kind of problem that gets you the 27 year old lawyer, married, father of two, who decides that his best connection to the future is to strap on a vest of dynamite and step onto a crowded bus and blow himself up. It’s that kind of despair, ultimately, that we’re attacking, and Petraeus knows that, because Petraeus is a huge believer in the notion that you’ve got to create stakeholders. And stakeholders are mostly about economics, not politics. It’s mostly about economics, is giving people a sense that they have a future that they can wait for, a future that’s going to be better for their children than it was for them. And unless you put those hands to work, and connect people to those dreams of a better future, you’re going to face the kind of despair that radical ideologies can come in and take advantage of, and you’re not going to solve this problem. So I would caution everybody in this process to admit to the fact that there is no exiting the Middle East, until the Middle East connects to the outside world.

Awesome blog post by Steve

POST: Wikileaks and Secrecy

Confirms my belief that best "ideological warfare" waged by our masses, not by our government.

Downtime

All caught up in reading and have ton of blog posts I want to do, but strangely exhausted.

Actually, not so strange.

My Meyer-Briggs said I was a closet introvert, the key identifier being: "after you spend time with people, are you tired or energized?"

Answer for me? Tired.

And the bigger the interface, the greater the fatigue.

Today I address remarks to Intel (corp)-hosted VIP luncheon of execs and mil brass at Network Centric Warfare 2007 conference atop Ronald Reagan Building (a cool, rooftop circular pavilion-like room right outta Godfather III).

I didn't eat lunch, but got up in front of the 50 or so people and just spoke extemporaneously about Art Cebrowski, NCW and Transformation and the future of globalization. It was a strange, gravelly-voiced (game throat, still) perf by me: I hadn't expected to talk about Art like that, so I spoke in a (for me) unusually measured tone. Then took questions for 30 or so.

Then rushed to giant, football-field-length ballroom (screens at goal line and 50) and did brief to about 600 or so. I swapped in 18 slides I rarely use because I wanted to slant this one differently (something like a band mixing a play list to stay fresh on stage).

The choice worked wonders and I was in rare form. Went about 45 and did 10 or so in questions.

Then signed books and did another 45 or so follow-on with individuals.

Afterwards, I feel exhausted. That huge room and big audience drew a magnificent flow of energy, really more their doing than mine--they just sort of suck it out of you.

Good audiences are like great interviewers: both make you feel like the partner of a great dance lead. You just relax and whiz around the floor. It's so unconscious when it works.

Another big help here: with lavalier I'm able to roam from goal line to 50-yard line, so to speak, and I'm also great when I am impelled--by layout and size audience--to move a lot and stay non-stop. I am the Favre of briefers: I suck at podiums (like Favre in pockets) and am without peer on the move (rolling-out Favre is a thing of beauty to watch).

It is my only fear of speaking, really, far outdistancing my queasiness over PPT failure (gotta be a pill for that!): having to stand still at a mike. It really drives me nuts for some reason, draining the passion out of a performance (you should see me pace like some "Rain Man" character when I do radio over the phone). I also get far darker when I can't move, and the humor disappears (I will confess I use much physicality in my delivery).

Anyway, a thrilling afternoon for me, especially since my biz agent/manager (please, I regret ever downgrading my profound appreciation for mentor and close friend Jennifer Posda to the lesser phrase "scheduler," because I respect her so and really appreciate the stability she's brought to my career!) Jenn was there to share both experiences. Jenn has become such an integral part of my success as a thought leader, and such a huge, stabilizing anchor in my personal life (everything she manages means more time for Vonne and the kids, something I treasure with more than half my nights in hotels), that it was really great to spend some time with her (much like Warren, we talk so much on the phone, but our F2F time is surprisingly rare given the solid bonds--such is the life).

Warren, BTW, loved what I penned over the weekend. Question is April or May in Esquire (there are few things in my work I love hearing more than Mark psyched on a piece!). Another question is special project I proposed, that I hope he and Granger bite on. I have a scant track record in coming up with my own ideas on pieces, but I think I've got a winner with this idea.

Anyway, beat for the night and will blog in morn, if time found. Better to have worked out. Makes me a better everything to everyone that matters.

January 25, 2007

SysAdmin in the SOTU

A reader sent in this quote from the SOTU noting that it sounds like the SysAdmin:


A second task we can take on together is to design and establish a volunteer Civilian Reserve Corps. Such a corps would function much like our military reserve. It would ease the burden on the Armed Forces by allowing us to hire civilians with critical skills to serve on missions abroad when America needs them. It would give people across America who do not wear the uniform a chance to serve in the defining struggle of our time.

Yes, I am pleased.

[Editor's note: DefenseTech noted the similarity, too, at the bottom of this post.

Job of tax cuts is done

ARTICLE: Budget Office Forecasts Drop in U.S. Deficit, By EDMUND L. ANDREWS, New York Times, January 25, 2007

Fascinating, confirming what many have said all along: the tax cuts were a huge cause in deficit.

On other hand, you have to factor in counter that says cuts were great stimulus for economy.

So, if self-correcting in their budget impact, then job of cuts is done and they should be allowed to lapse and Bush gets credit for both ends.

Or... GOP gets stubborn, Dems get overly partisan, and this doesn't get done?

Just a thought...

The happy sight at Reagan Airport Borders

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Another link between SysAdmin and SOTU

No one's trying to say Tom came up with this idea ex nihilo. In fact, the rejoinder Tom often gives when asked how much influence he has is 'Is it true?'. As a grand strategist, as a futurist, is he seeing the trends right? First it's impossible, then more people start to come to the same conclusions (plenty independently), then it's de rigeur.

All of that to say, MountainRunner also makes the connection between the Civilian Reserve Corps and the SysAdmin.

And, maybe best of all, he's got this great .png imge that looks like it's from the DVD! ;-)

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Yes, it HAS been long enough

FEATURE: “Little Sensitivity Lesson on the Prairie: A Canadian sitcom pokes fun at Muslim stereotypes,” by Christopher Mason, New York Times, 16 January 2007, p. A4.

The Canadians are beating us to the self-examination punch on Islam within our ranks, as demonstrated by Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s daring new sitcom, “Little Mosque on the Prairie. It is attracting an audience that’s roughly double of the usual definition of a runaway hit in Canada.

The opening episode shows a bunch of Muslims trying to set up a mosque in the parish hall of a church. When a local sees them gathered in prayer, he rushes to call the terrorist hot line, and rest is a humor right out of “The Russians are coming! The Russians are coming!”

The president of the Canadian Islamic Congress has a great quote on the show: “Muslims are a bit late in laughing at themselves, but we have to use humor to remedy these divisions, just like any community.”

The CBC is talking with networks and cable stations in the U.S., Israel, Dubai, U.K., Germany and France about exporting the show.

Norman Lear would be proud.

History will not be kind to Condi

COLUMN: “A falling star: Condoleezza Rice is not the woman she once was,” by Lexington, Economist, 20 January 2007, p. 44.

A great examination of how disappointing Rice’s tenure has been, noting that her poor turn at SECSTATE is vastly outweighed by her disastrous turn leading the NSC (“Her fingerprints are on some of the worst mistakes of the first Bush term.”). On that basis, she can be rightfully accused by history of being the Achilles heel of the entire administration, sowing the seeds in Bush I for the tragedy that has become Bush II.

As the piece points out, though, the ultimate blame lies with Bush, who picked her for jobs that demanded a heavyweight when she has turned out to be anything but.

Then Lexington nails her flaws on the head: she was a lifelong protégé who never grew up. From her childhood right through her final tutoring under Scowcroft, whose model of the perfect NSC chief (broker, not herder) sealed her fate, she--just like fellow SECSTATE disaster Colin Powell--“made her career by impressing powerful establishment figures.”

What does being a lifelong protégé get you? A mindset of serving the boss’ needs, keeping one’s place among the adults, and trying to please all while angering none.

What it does not get you is serious leadership skills, at least those at the level required for SECSTATE.

We have paid a huge price for Rice’s poor education, along with Powell’s.

But I will say this about Rice: she lacks Powell’s CYA instincts, and for that alone she deserves far more respect than he.

Still, Rice will go down in history as forging a brilliant and historic career unblemished by lasting accomplishments and visionary leadership.

The slow rise of transparency in China

FINANCE AND ECONOMICS: “Cultural revolution: New accounting rules have replaced the Little Red Book as China’s guide to self-improvement. Can the state handle the truth?” Economist, 13 January 2007, p. 63.

ARTICLE: “Blackmailing by Journalists In China Seen As ‘Frequent,’” by Edward Cody, Washington Post, 25 January 2007, p. A1.

Chinese businesses have long kept multiple books: one each for the government, the record, for foreigners, and for actually keeping track of what’s really going on. Naturally, these competing truths are never allowed to bump into one another.

Now China’s leadership proposes that one standard be used, that of the International Financial Reporting Standards. Certain exceptions are allowed (big surprise), and adherence is “voluntary,” a phrase with too many meanings in Chinese to count.

Still, this is a big deal in a country where, as the article’s opening para notes, accountants were once considered so dangerous that they were all summarily rounded up and sent to re-education camps. Now, there is such a shortage of accountants in China that acquiring them has become a mania in business circles.

In the end, though, accountants are just one edge of the transparency sword. The other is a free press. You can’t send in the bean counters in many instances until the lies are revealed, and that’s the job of journalists in any reasonably free system. In China, that function remains both promising (exposure of corruption is encouraged by the Party, so long as the Party itself remains untouched, save those dicey moments when those on top want to do some house-cleaning, usually defined in generational terms) and depressing (the same corruption so widespread in the Party is none too surprising replicated throughout the press, where bribe-taking to avoid muckraking is commonplace).

Following my usual analytic practice, the question is, how far back in U.S. history do we travel to find similar dynamics? As often is the case, one’s mind turns to the period at the turn of the last century, or the age of high corruption segueing to Progressivism (basically corresponding to the adult life/career of Teddy Roosevelt).

A long slow journey, no doubt. But once begun, very hard to undo.

NC --> NRs! [updated]

OP-ED: “What Drives High Growth Rates? The short answer: demand, technology and investment,” by Michael Spence, Wall Street Journal, 24 January 2007, p. A13.

Very tightly packed but fabulous op-ed.

Internally, growth is associated with “a functioning market system, high levels of saving, public and private sector investment, resource mobility and the capacity to accommodate rapid change at the microeconomic level without leaving people excessively exposed to the risks inherent in creative destruction.”

Notice how an economist (and Nobel laureate) like Spence can lay out an argument like that and never mention democracy. Why should he? Because his favorite examples in the piece are Japan, Korea, Singapore and China. The first two became democracies in a real sense only when very much advanced in their development process, while the latter two essentially remain single party states and show few signs of shedding that characteristic any time soon.

But the real point in this op-ed is to argue how crucial globalization’s rise has been to enabling sustained high growth rates in these countries, since all achieved--and still achieve--their development through largely export-driven growth strategies. By tapping global demand, global technology and global investment, each has accomplished that which would have been impossible in isolation.

In that development, which was more easily achieved with connectivity to distant markets than to neighboring ones (except on FDI), rising Asia was able to “play up” to the West, taking advantage of its wealth to jump start its own accumulation process, which soon enough will become incredibly crucial to an aging West. In turn, however, because of demographic pressures similarly triggered, the East will need to turn South for all the same reasons why the West previously turned East.

Spence lays it out nicely in a manner I very much agree with:

The prospects for developing countries are, in fact, probably more favorable now than they have been since World War II. International trade is growing faster than global GDP. The benefits of decades of learning with respect to operating global supply chains are accessible. Information and technology continues to lower transactions costs and to be a powerful integrating force. But perhaps even more important, the key players in all this--the leaders in emerging economies who have the responsibility for building policies that support private sector entrepreneurship and that lead to sustained inclusive growth--have a wealth of experience to rely on. No one is in the dark.

A neat definition of what I mean when I say that the New Core sets the new rules, and therein lie the clues for how the Core as a whole will realistically shrink the Gap.

Update: Steve wrote about this same Op-Ed today: High Growth Rate Drivers

The best foreign aid our taxes can buy

POLITICS & ECONOMICS: “Foreign-Aid Program May Be Hamstrung by Budget: Bush Program Faces Hit as Countries Near Large Deals,” by Michael M. Phillips, Wall Street Journal, 22 January 2007, p. A7.

The best innovation of the Bush administration in foreign policy has been the Millennium Challenge Corporation, a new foreign aid-granting entity outside of USAID that focuses on countries approaching the threshold of emerging market status. Instead of just propping up countries from below, the MCC was designed to lure them from above, creating a transparency with regard to standards.

The focus of the MCC has been great: very much enabling the mechanisms by which soft infrastructure and rule sets emerge. My favorite grant (very De Soto-ish) was to Madagascar to take its antiquated land titling system and bring it into the information age (I have a special spot for Madagascar, as I did a bit of work for USAID’s Africa Bureau [no travel, alas] back in the mid-1990s, about the same time my firstborn was surviving her advanced case of cancer thanks to a drug made from a plant found only on the island [my consulting involved the preservation of nature reserves, so a nice sense of symmetry arose]).

Bush wanted $5B a year (alas, Bush was a spender beyond all spenders), but Congress, as always, got stingy and has continuously trimmed it back. Our legislature should know better, but they prefer their ability to earmark the entire USAID budget to death, primarily to benefit home districts.

The entirely predictable crime rise

COVER STORY: “Cities see crime surge as threat to their revival: Louisville, Trenton, N.J., and other metros whose downtowns are booming once again fear nationwide jump in violent crime may hurt prosperity,” by Haya El Nasser, USA Today, 25 January 2007, p. 1A.

Police chief of Providence came to me after PNM was published and we talked urban crime as the analogy of Gap violence.

This was his revelation: the three-strikes and other harsh-penalty laws of the previous decade had surged the prison population, but soon the number of ex-cons being released (about 600k, if I remember) would surpass the number of new cons going in (about 500k). A simple prediction: urban crime was going to go up all across America.

The bulk of these guys are functionally illiterate and go right back to the same broken communities and neighborhoods where they previously failed, except now where those areas are gentrified, we’ve got a “new” problem “out of nowhere.”

Jobs are the “exit strategy” there too, along with “broken windows” community policing.

Very similar to the Gap.

For how this phenomenon can get cast in real estate, see this post from Coming Anarchy's Chirol (always intriguing and here with perfect timing for my purposes) on gated communities.

January 26, 2007

Coming clean

I will admit that I am somewhat worried about the blog. Life is constant transition and change, and since I don't write corporate but personal and visionary (not an objective statement, but a claim of purpose) my blog's going to capture all that (either making it fascinatingly easy for future biographers or simply leaving clues behind for my kids to figure out exactly "when Dad snapped!").

I hinted at the problem a while back: columns intrude, stealing my best efforts. And with the Fast Company edit looming and my Esquire beast coming on its heels (the first will appear in the April issue [comes out in March] and the second will--in all likelihood--appear in the May issue [comes out in April]), I consistently find myself killing posts because I want to keep that good line or that bit or that line of reasoning.

But I fear it's more than that (and let me admit here that I am writing under the influence right now, which means last week's sinus infection doubled back into both a sinus and ear and I'm not seeing the doc until 3:30).

First, as I noted before, the sense of gearing up for the book is there, and although I don't expect Vol. III to be as current events-tied as PNM or BFA were (because I want to write a sort of primer for the next generation of grand strategists in my "wide thinker but not widely read" sort of way--meanng my book won't be a grand treatment of all other books on the subject because I got out of grad school 17 years ago), I find myself retreating intellectually: observing more, talking less.

Spending lots of time with Steve DeAngelis encourages this, because Enterra's on such a blitzkrieg track right now (smashing through lines, achieving insane breakthroughs which constantly force regroupings of resources--the usual start-up drill) that the Steve-and-Tom show is very Penn and Teller, meaning Steve does most of the talking and I do most of the facial expressions (yes, I'm too tall to play Teller, but I am pretty funny, you gotta admit). Doesn't mean I'm taking a back seat intellectually to Steve (who's very generous in that way), just that this is how the business drill is working right now: I do most of my talking behind closed doors now, most often with Steve himself. In short, I'm strategizing a lot right now, and it's like that output is reducing my intellectual drive on the blog somewhat, especially when all the other stuff (columns, articles, book) looms in addition.

Getting settled in Indy is probably contributing to this withdrawl as well. Having been on the run so long and for so hard naturally crates a regrouping phenomenon.

So I worry about the blog.

In reality, though, it's counter-intuitive. The blog should go downhill as other things go uphill. Not just the intellectual output, but the career story-telling because I'm increasingly having interactions I can't explore here, as more and more meetings start with the admonition "Don't put this in your blog!" I mean, I don't want to become the professional commentator nor the Kitty Kelly/Bob Woodward-like leak conduit. Those are great functions in their own right, and I'm sure there's a small army of smart people out there striving mightily to achieve those heights, but I'm pretty sure that's not what I want to do.

You know sometimes I feel bad about giving basically the same brief for the last decade or so, even as I swap out all the slides and sometimes, like over the last two weeks, give briefs that are fundamentally different. The process has always been the same: old stuff gets squished up front and new stuff gets added on the end, like a giant sausage factory. But underlying it all are the same questions and just better and better versions of answers over time. The kernel software has never really changed for me, just gotten more robust.

But I think that's the right way for me to go (hell, I have people say they've seen "the brief" six times and it just keeps getting better and better--and they say that with great enthusiasm). I just can't be somebody with a new grand strategic vision every other week, because then I really would be just another op-ed columnist, and I think that would be the death of me.

I think I need to be the Philip Glass type, or the Roy Lichtenstein type, or the Christopher Walken type, or the Jackson Pollack type, or the Laurie Anderson type, or the M. Night Shyamalan type. I need to keep shaping the perfect thing, getting as close to the essence as possible, wherever that takes me and accepting the Zen-like repetition of the work.

I've often thought the blog is very helpful on that score, allowing the repeated attempts at the same task, over and over and over and over again. But if you feel the bouncing rubble phenomenon, is that your fault or the medium's? Cause I feel anything but stale right now, I just find myself operating at different levels that aren't as easily translated here as they were--say--even six months ago.

So maybe the blog, as a career/intellectual function naturally drifts in and out. You know, that happens to creative people all the time: they just get tired of the format. Eno sort of said that. You just need to shift some gears, either to refresh or simply to move on.

Anyway, there it is for now.

Knocked out

Last week's issue (sinus) resurrected (inner ear). Too much travel.

Recovering, not hiding from all these events readers demand comments on.

January 27, 2007

Honor the fallen by getting the rule set right as quickly as possible

POST: Lt. Mark Daily, RIP

A beautiful piece of writing from an amazingly self-aware young man who wanted to connect to a future worth creating, and whose sacrifice reminds us all that no such future is possible unless we learn to associate--in this connected world--U.S. national security to global stability and--ultimately--freedom.

That's what this fallen officer was talking about, and his profound awareness of where his individual sacrifice fits within our shared global future reflects how America logically serves as sourcecode for this era's globalization--the single most liberating and empowering revolution yet unleashed upon the planet. An intolerable "burden" to some, a very noble cause to others.

We honor him best by getting the rule set right--as quickly as possible.

And to that conversation, all must be welcome, or all will be lost.

Thanks to Tom Wade for sending this

Steve (and his missus) to the rescue!

Yesterday was a hard day. Last two weeks I've basically been gone all week, getting home sick late on Thursday nights.

No worse than your 80% biz traveler in general, and certainly no 15 months in Iraq. It's just that I've been doing this pretty much non-stop since Oct 2001, and it makes everything seem so intense all the time: all trips are packed, are audiences jacked, all schedules timed to the nth degree (Jenn's amazing role), and content that must be generated in huge chunks and shoved out the door. Add in the energizer bunny that is Steve and it gets awfully blurry at times. You come home and the place is a wreck because wife has been dealing with the pre-schooler, the grade-schooler, the mid-schooler and the high-schooler with her one pair of hands, one car, one everything. So your big non-sick day (today) disappears in one big clean-up that you try to make fun (e.g., Jerry performs Star Wars [can't tell which player] in front of me while I work out on the elliptical [can't forget that!] and listen to my Hewitt appearances on my laptop).

We'll spend all day fixing up the house and cleaning, Vonne and I will hit the Bowflex, then we're trying to talk our kids into "Star Trek IV" in the home theater with Tombstones and "free soda." Tomorrow I'll hit an early mass with the family and then bail for the next jaunt before noon. I'm looking at a serious overseas trip in Feb.

All these things are important. I get so many emails from people who say the material's getting through and changing things and making a difference and yet there are so many more to convince, and so I remain convinced that the work I do, coupled with the Enterra stuff Steve and I are creating, is having crucial impact. And you read something like Daily's piece and you say to yourself: Can I do more?

And then I realize how lucky I am to have Vonne.

And then I realize how nice it is to connect to people through the blog.

Yesterday I got this great piece of email from a Chinese Alzheimer's researcher. My guess is this person's born in China, came here for education, and stayed--for now--because of the research. Imagine devoting your life to something that important! Well, she (I'm guessing the sex here because the name was no hint!) sent me a nice letter and it really picked me up.

Everybody's holding down somebody else's fort. There's the guy who organizes all the servers at my church. Small thing, but it helps me immensely with my fort, giving my son Kevin this tremendous feeling of belonging and accomplishment and faith. No one probably ever asked him to step up. He just did. This guy won't cure anything (he's an apartment super, like I once was) and he won't catch any bad guys, and he won't foment any revolutionary change. But maybe he makes all those things possible for others, holding down one fort while so many more get built.

You sense that web, that network. You try to live up to its demands and its promise. You try sacrificing just enough while surrendering no more than is necessary, and you constantly recalibrate.

Thanks for giving me this venue in all its forms and functions. "Downhill" for me is just taking more than I give, and being such an inveterate performer (8 of 9, I always remind myself), that makes me feel sad.

But it's a good thing to network, to draw strength from others and to feel your strength drawn to them. Frankly, it's the low days that make me understand best why our victory in the Long War is both inevitable and quite right.

Connectivity is the basis and the purpose of all faith: the challenge is how you choose to use the strengths offered to attempt a widening of the circle.

In that sense, I have been offered many gifts in this life, and I intend to repay them all.

How'd Steve and his wife came to my rescue? It's called SinusRinse and it's OTC from NeilMed. Simple as the day is long. Almost too natural to call a medicinal cure. Think it's going to help me a lot. Steve, maven of mavens, connected me to his wife to clue me in, and for that I thank them both.

Blowback on another military-only strategy

ARTICLE: Bush Defies Lawmakers To Solve Iraq: Gates Says Doubts Bolster Enemy, By Michael Abramowitz and Jonathan Weisman, Washington Post, January 27, 2007; Page A01

Bush is being disingenuous here. The biggest threat we face right now are enemies all around us in Iraq who feel completely emboldened by the Bush administration's unwillingness to engage, and general incompetence, in diplomacy across the region.

Bush's surge plus a diplomatic strategy designed to temporize opponents' efforts while drawing in outside allies would have met with Senate approval. The surge strategy with a complete blow-off of the ISG's very wise recommendations on diplomacy is not acceptable.

Trying to pin Senate opposition to the tag of "enemy support" is complete bullshit. Bush and Cheney have proven themselves incompetent diplomats throughout this process and now--go figure--no one trusts them when the re-try-a-military-only strategy that has failed before, coupled with more reconstruction money unlikely--under the conditions of foreign meddling that our incompetent diplomacy both allows and enables--to succeed in any critical-mass sense.

What's coming under fire here is not the Senate's implied "treason" but Bush's demonstrated strategic incompetency and willful disregard of popular will. He "leads" when no one feels it is wise to go. Americans have had enough of war-war-war from Bush-Cheney and want--in Churchill's vernacular--more jaw-jaw-jaw.

Bush's insistence on conducting war solely within the context of war instead of running it with an eye to the "everything else" is what's on trial here--and it's only going to get worse because Bush and Cheney seem both politically and strategically tone deaf: they add enemies at will but never bother to worry about adding friends.

And guess what? Eventually that creates a huge blowback.

If Bush and Cheney want to remain oblivious to that blowback, both at home and abroad, be my guest. They just cannot be so foolish to think their lack of strategic imagination somehow binds the rest of us to silence.

If nothing kills the myth of Karl Rove's "genius," this idiotic name-calling does all by itself.

If he's gonna' talk like that, don't let him out in public

ARTICLE: Defending Iraq War, Defiant Cheney Cites 'Enormous Successes', By Peter Baker, Washington Post, January 25, 2007; Page A01

ARTICLE: Bush Plans New Focus On Afghan Recovery: Extra $7 Billion Would Go to Security, Roads, By Michael Abramowitz, Washington Post, January 25, 2007; Page A01

Cheney's disconnect comes off as scary weird. He shouldn't be allowed in public if he's going to go all brittle like that. He'll end up being a bigger danger to Petraeus than Maliki if he keeps it up.

Meanwhile, the $7B announcement on Afghanistan is encouraging.

In retrospect, history will wonder aloud why America didn't put in the huge effort on Afghanistan and temporize on Iraq (something I addressed in a column a way back). Now, we're backfilling on both Afghanistan and Iraq and contemplating war on Iran (my weekend column that Scripps will post and distro tomorrow).

In defense of Bush (very cynically): no matter how bad Iraq goes, his Big Bang is actually extended further and better by worse outcome than by opposite (Iraq as dream case), because Iraq-dream-case dismissed regionally as American pilot study and not indicative. Plus, in that case we'd probably just be pursuing the same ramp-up on Iran, with the same "brave" effort from Saudis ("you spill blood, we'll make more profit by pumping harder and doing our bit to reduce Iran's revenue"). If that was path, we'd likely have just blundered into unsustainable invasion of Iran (can't handle 20m in Iraq when things go bad, so 70m in Iran... hard to be optimistic).

Of course, with this path (Iraq sucks), we're mostly blowing smoke on Iran. But we're more likely to get--however scary--further and faster on conflating conflicts (unless pushed too much to fight Israel's desired war with Iran, because then the global blowback on us overwhelms any localized dynamics we may wish for)
in that the Saudis are forced to fish or cut bait on the Sunni Triangle.

But here's why I think the Iran-war-sales-job is so real: not just Tel Aviv but also Riyadh pushing the package (both the blood and the treasure).

Think Bush won't do it? Rewatch the Cheney interview with Wolf and remember that he's the adult in the room when that gut decision gets made.

Scary enough when the president has no cares about legacy. Now we contemplate matching that dynamic to Cheney's own disdain.

And under the right conditions?

We will see impeachment proceedings.

Don't believe? Then you need to check out Biden's long soliloquy yesterday on the Senate's options, cause those gears are turning.

January 28, 2007

Tom's column this week

When America threatens war with Iran

In international affairs, the best threats are often left unpublicized. In his State of the Union speech this week, President Bush signaled to the Iranians in no uncertain terms that America will not let it develop nuclear arms.

Behind the scenes, the White House reportedly tells Tehran's leaders that, unless they stop messing around in Iraq, we will take the fight directly to Iran.

Rumor mongering or legitimate diplomatic demarche?

Read on at KnoxNews.
Read on at Scripps Howard.

Early column sighting: The Mitford Daily News.

Tom around the web

+ ZenPundit posted an essay (also on Chicago Boyz) on one of the points where John Robb and Tom disagree.
+ Kobayashi Maru highly recommends Hugh's interviews with Tom and disagrees with Infantile US Strategy on China.
+ The War Room said he would like more ads for Tom's work. Really ;-)
+ All Things Beautiful says 'amen' to the end of Tom's most recent appearance on Hugh's show.
+ NonParty Politics linked the transcript from that show`.
+ An Army Lawyer has started posting on BFA, with an intro and then Chapter One. Looking good so far...
+ ThinkRight Arizona has started reviewing PNM.
+ Hillbilly Sense cites Tom in an argument for sending more troops to Iraq.

January 29, 2007

An amazing day

Spent it running a three-hour session with Steve that involved a host of senior execs from one of the world's biggest defense contractors.

To get the feedback I got today regarding my two books and how they've influenced the strategic choices of this company over the past two years (I spoke at a conclave of their top 500 global execs a couple years back) is really stunning. I've never felt greater satisfaction from my career, because I know this corporation's choices will influence the entire defense-industrial complex's future, fueling our evolution toward a SysAdmin function that's more civilian than uniform, more USG than DOD, more ROW than USA, and more private-sector shaped and funded than public-sector driven.

A lot of people who don't know this business want to measure the vision's effectiveness and impact based solely on the operational experience in Iraq and Afghanistan. What they fail to realize is that change happens only under extreme duress and typically as slowly as possible. There is the institutional force and the operating force, and if you want to enable revolutionary change, you focus on the institutional force, not the operational force. The defense industrial leaders fall into the institutional category as well, which is why I spend so much time with them (a fascinating grind).

Not trying to be coy here, I just need to be discrete given the client relationship (Steve and I aren't here for free). It was just a big lift for me when I could use one, something that will sustain me for a very long time, because I realize what an incredible privilege it is to get to interact with people on this level. I've worked very hard for about two decades to position myself for these moments, so when I get that sort of highly focused, and highly positive feedback, it's just very energizing.

I take about 300-350 flights a year. I'm dropping out of the sky seemingly every afternoon. I sleep alone in strange rooms most nights, and expect my wife to raise 4 kids. I don't do it for the money, because I could make so much more while never leaving the house, I'd just write partisan crap that energized true believers (hell, I could write it well for both sides; it's not particularly hard to do if you write cleverly).

I do this because I really believe in it. This is exactly what I dreamed of doing back when I was a kid, growing up in Boscobel, with so much time on my hands I was able to spends countless hours imagining why I was put on this earth and how I was determined not to disappoint anyone involved with that decision. This is my priesthood--a lifelong commitment to goals I consider supreme, a true expression of my faith. I ask my kids and my wife to put up with that because I consider the sum of our sacrifices to be both profound and marginal in the grand scheme of things. After all, I do come home, I do see them all, they all thrive and lead fulfilling lives, and I've had the joy of knowing them all over the years as they know me.

A lotta other people sacrifice much more in this process. People from all nations and all religions and all backgrounds and all persuasions. I lead a life I value and love, so I do not consider their sacrifices to be in vain. I just try to honor them the best way I can.

And like everyone else, I need pats on the back. The virtual ones here in the blog and in emails are neat, but tangible evidence is better.

I got some today--of the sort that's big and lasting and real. It's the kind of feedback that insulates you from the criticism of others.

And it feels very good.

We lost control in Iraq a long time ago

ARTICLE: Iranian Reveals Plan to Expand Role in Iraq, By JAMES GLANZ, New York Times, January 29, 2007

The dynamics here are so predictable.

Iran's been involved in supporting Shiia in Iraq for a long time. Now we're "discovering" this like crazy and revealing it to our public, but it's been well known and well documented all along.

Now that we target this, the Iranians are signaling they can go as long and as hard as need be on the subject. They're betting this is a struggle they've got legs on while clearly the Bush administration is under fire at home and therefore needs obvious wins in the short term.

I don't believe in fair fights. I also don't believe we've made this unfair enough to Iran, so I think we're picking a fight we will not win.

As sectarian violence picks up across Iraq, Iran will ramp up support to Shiia and Saudi support to the Sunnis will also ramp up. Both flows of support will enable the killing of Americans. Don't expect any crack down on Saudi support any time soon.

This is classic Rumsfeldian "enlargening the unsolvable problem in search of a larger solution." Problem is we're not offering Iran anything, so Iran's gonna simply wait us out.

The sectarian strife is the dominant dynamic now, which means we lost control of the situation in Iraq a long time ago. Now Iran's more in the driver seat, thanks to the Shiia being majority. We haven't solved Iraq, now Iran naturally thinks it's their turn.

And, quite frankly, they're right. "Victory" in civil wars--as Niall Ferguson so aptly points out--comes when winning sides are supported by outsiders. I would pick the Shiia over Sunni, and so when Iran does the same, they just access the solution set faster than we do. Our picking a fight with Iran won't change this underlying reality which our previous incompetence set in motion.

The Bush administration simply won't admit that our actions to date in the Long War have dramatically empowered Iran (my point all along), so they compound past failure with future failure. We made the choice to empower Iran, but Bush simply doesn't want to deal with that. He and Cheney are being completely unrealistic about what comes next. Their "my way or the highway" is cute when we're in the driver seat, but we're not anymore on Iraq, so pledging undying support to their continuing incompetence ain't patriotism, it's simply surrender to the current correlation of forces that they themselves have created.

We need more NATOs

OP-ED: One NATO Is Not Enough, By JOSEPH NÚÑEZ, New York Times, January 27, 2007

A good example why Bush is not living up to his preferred historical comparison to Harry Truman: his Long War leaves behind no international institutions.

Thanks to Michal Shapiro for sending this.

January 30, 2007

USAF's opening bid [updated with link]

DAILY BRIEFING: Air Force chief argues against diverting funds to Army, By Megan Scully, CongressDaily, January 26, 2007

Get used to hearing this story. The near-term threat MUST be countered by something else--typically long term (where China typically comes in).

Here, the USAF Chief takes a far better tack: cut us and you cut our support to ground troops.

Best counter: "Fine. You do need to protect and even expand your support craft. Now let's talk about your platforms not currently in the fight and your long-term plans for acquisitions."

And yeah, that's where the China card gets pulled.

So consider this an opening bid...

Thanks to Steffany Hedenkamp for sending this.

Stink at the postwar, get blown off by Iran

ARTICLE: With Iran Ascendant, U.S. Is Seen at Fault: Arab Allies in Region Feeling Pressure, By Anthony Shadid, Washington Post, Tuesday, January 30, 2007; Page A01

Our allies back away slowly, Iran promises more pain, Bush makes more threats.

Iraq's postwar done well, none of this unfolds.

Iraq's postwar botched, all of this in inevitable.

That's why improving our postwar capabilities isn't an option, it's an imperative.

Unless you like being blown off by the Iranians.

Between Baghdad and New Orleans, our inability to do the postwar shortened Bush's effective presidency by two-and-a-half years.

Problem is, he's still in office.

If he truly understood the challenge, he wouldn't leave that lack of capacity as a legacy. He'd want the next president to do better.

And if Cheney really cared about the presidency as much as he claims, he wouldn't be wasting its political capital so. He'd leave the office better than he found it.

Thanks to Brandon Winters for sending this.

Europe continues distancing itself from Bush's next trigger-pull

ARTICLE: Europe Resists U.S. Push to Curb Iran Ties, By STEVEN R. WEISMAN, New York Times, January 30, 2007

Fascinating. Saudi Arabia can deal with Iran in Lebanon, but we can't deal with them anywhere.

Thus Europe continues distancing itself from Bush's next trigger-pull

Whew! To make Hugh!

Got up 0500 this am local time in San Diego. Flew to Atlanta. Then back to Central time here in Huntsville Alabama. Touch down 5:15. Luggage 5:25. Cab at 5:30 and get to hotel at 5:55. Check in and run to room, arriving 5:59. Phone rings and I'm on the air with Hugh 5 minutes later.

That was close!

Reviewed the chapter carefully while flying, cause it's the statistical chapter, so had a lot of notes at my fingertips for the show.

Best one yet, I felt, in me-and-Hugh give-and-take.

But I feel material was hardest yet for callers (all that data), so questions were less connected and thus less compelling.

Next week on System Perturbations should be great, because Y2K, 9/11 and Big Bang all lend themselves to narrative and thus more accessible traction points for questions.

Meanwhile, on with my own show.

Have 5K blogged and in Mac, but not sure my way-cheap motel has access and I left my Treo synch cord at home (otherwise I could get Mac online via cell--new feature I just got that means no more hotel charges, so long as I remember the damn cord!).

But I will see what I can arrange. In "space city," after all.

A long struggle to create a global rule set on justice

ARTICLE: “Rules Dispute Imperils Khmer Rouge Trial: A long struggle to bring justice to the victims of genocide,” by Seth Mydans, New York Times, 26 January 2007, p. A3.

The global approach to war criminals has historically been rather haphazard: sometimes a local trial, sometimes an international one, sometimes the intervening powers conduct it, sometimes it’s a court shared between the nation and the international community, sometimes the UN is involved and sometimes not.

The creation of the International Criminal Court in 2002 was supposed to put a stop to that--sort of--by providing an internationally-credentialed court of last resort for conflicts and “nations” (typically failed) where local court systems proved insufficient. Although the ICC has never presented itself as THE alternative to global mash-ups, the goal was clearly in place to build up--over time--a sort of global case law on such matters, if for no other reason than avoiding the usual lengthy delays typically associated with the one-off approach employed in most of these cases.

The supremely delayed trial of the last surviving leaders of Khmer Rouge (we’re talking a genocide from over two decades ago) is a case in point: foreign and local judges locked in a never-ending argument. But look at the complex hybrid that was dreamed up: 17 Cambodian judges and 12 international ones, in a UN-sponsored mess “that mixes Cambodian law with international standards of justice.”:

It is an awkward formula made more questionable by the meager qualifications of the Cambodian judges, who are seen as poorly trained and subject to political manipulation.

Typical of the UN, it bends over backwards to respect local sovereignty, achieving its usual suboptimal outcome.

The UN-associated-but-not-sponsored ICC is supposed to be a bit more bold than that: simply proceeding on the notion that the local system was flawed in the first place, thus the war criminality needed to be judged by a wider community of states.

But because the main executioner of “hard” justice, the United States in the form of its military interventions, has essentially opted out of the ICC by signing all those bilat exclusionary treaties, the ICC remains a global rule set that’s largely unactualized.

And that’s a shame, because by connecting our toppling of dictators and rounding up of terrorists to that larger rule set, we’d go a long way toward effectively contextualizing the use of U.S. military power, thus we’d be freed to use it more--not less as our continued unilateralist tendencies have limited us through the reduction of allies and the increasing of enemies/opponents.

To me, this is a great example of the plethora of missed opportunities associated with George Bush’s presidency. I think history will judge him as having achieved virtually nothing in reshaping the global security environment for the long haul of the Long War. Instead, he’ll be judged primarily for Iraq and how he initiated the Big Bang there with no apparent plans for either local or regional follow-through.

And to me, that’s a stunning incompetence that history will condemn, overwhelming any good Bush might have accomplished previously and--amazingly--erasing all the global goodwill that was ours for the exploiting after 9/11.

Another missing global rule set that should have been built while we had the golden hour

ARTICLE: “This time it’s revenge: Despite its previous unhappy experience, America decides to get involved once again in a civil war in the turbulent Horn of Africa,” The Economist, 13 January 2007, p. 41.

FEATURE: “Saving Somalia: As the U.S. strikes al-Qaeda, a new government tries to restore order. Here’s what it will take,” by Alex Perry, Time, 22 January 2007, p. 44.

ARTICLE: “Somalia’s chance for new beginning ‘slipping away,’” by William Wallis, Financial Times, 24 January 2007, p. 6.

ARTICLE: “Aid Conference Raises $7.6 Billion for Lebanese Government: Trouble in Beirut even as donations surpass expectations,” by Helene Cooper, New York Times, 26 January 2007, p. A7.

ARTICLE: “Months After War, Vision of Rebuilding Lebanon Wanes,” by Hassan M. Fattah, New York Times, 22 January 2007, p. A8.

The lack of some internationally-recognized A-to-Z rule set on processing politically bankrupt states means we simply go back to that well every 7-10 years.

That’s our post-Cold War record in Iraq, in Haiti, and now in Somalia. Where we came closest to exercising the A-to-Z rule set I outline in BFA was in the Balkans. No surprise, we never left there. No exit means no exit strategy.

Also no surprise, the Balkans are our most successful success story. Not pretty. But check out the casualties among the peacekeepers, and check out the trials in the Hague (the war crimes tribunal for the former Yugoslavia became the model for the ICC), and check out the mix of U.S. troops to allied, and check out the follow-on integration to date with the EU and NATO.

To me, that’s an amazing success story that we refuse to recognize elsewhere. We come up with all sorts of good excuses, but it’s primarily a matter of political will and nothing more. Unfortunately, we’ve got too much of it with Bush-Cheney, while the rest of the Core’s pillars have too little.

So we’re back in Somalia. Said we’d never return, but we’re back, Nixon Doctrine-style (which I approve of, absent some larger Core rule set being employed).

What will it take to win the peace this time, seeing as we’ve simply driven the radical Islamic infestation one apartment over--yet again?

A long-term effort that we cannot possibly manage on our own, that must inevitably involve regional diplomacy and the Chinese, that . . . oh you get the picture.

Will we make this effort? I’m sure CJTF-HOA (Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa) will make a good faith effort, but I’m not optimistic until we get a more comprehensively serious (and strategic) leader in the White House, and by then it may be too late for this go-around with Somalia, whose golden hour is already “slipping away.”

Again, no surprise, as the FT reports “no clear commitment from outside the continent to fund an 8,000-strong AU peacekeeping mission.” That mission is supposed to “plug the gap once Ethiopia withdraws.”

Sound familiar?

The lack of the A-to-Z rule set is seen in poor Lebanon as well. The usual passing-the-hat on aid masquerades a more profound passing-the-buck on peacekeeping presence, which would have to be a lot bigger than what Europe has--largely on its own--mustered.

But of course, Lebanon “is a battlefield in a larger proxy war,” with America and its friends on one side and Iran on the other. We refuse to deal with Iran in Iraq, so Iran forces us to deal with them in Lebanon.

We treat every case as America-versus-the-world and you add up the cases and find that our “allies” in one situation are also our competitors or our outright opponents in another, and somehow we think--in our “we don’t do diplomacy” mindset--that we’re running the overall show.

When in reality, it’s the show that’s running us.

Hezbollah exercise the veto in Lebanon, with the strings being pulled back in Tehran. Not only have we been stupid enough to get ourselves into a proxy struggle with Iran. We’re managing to lose it. Why? We pick all the wrong venues and avoid all the right ones.

Bush doesn’t do diplomacy. He also doesn’t do winning.

China thinks it knows the downside, we’re just beginning to understand the upside

OP-ED: “‘I Know Who My Comrades Are,’” by Emily Parker, The Wall Street Journal, 27-28 January 2007, p. A8.

The never-ending debate on the impact of the Internet in China: are we connecting the masses toward freedom or is the Party staying ahead of that curve?

We get so fixated on the content that we tend to downplay the connectivity. The CCP bans this or that discussion, yes, but the bigger point (made well here) is that, while freedom of speech is still quite limited, freedom of assembly is taking off.

Here in America, freedom of assembly is easy to take for granted. In China, where large groups may be met with suspicion--or worse--it is not.

That’s the key thing to remember with Falun Gong. Even more than official China’s paranoia about religious groups/cults and their potential for political destabilization, there is the event that really ticked them off: the seemingly spontaneous mass rally in Tiananmen that FG pulled off through web-based coordination. It’s the horizontal connectivity that the CCP fears most, and that connectivity is becoming a natural part of life inside China, thanks to the web.

Beijing’s censorship of language is a serious obstacle to democratization, but it would be a mistake to overemphasize this point. In China, the Internet has already set into motion a core component of democratic consciousness. I know who my comrades are--those words can easily be deleted. The realization behind them can not.

Great piece of analysis by an assistant features editor at WSJ.

The rising sense of individual risk from globalization

EDITORIAL: “Rich man, poor man: A poisonous mix of inequality and sluggish wages threatens globalization,” The Economist, 20 January 2007, p. 15.

ARTICLE: “In the shadow of prosperity: Hard truths about helping the losers from globalization,” The Economist, 20 January 2006, p. 33.

ARTICLE: “The Income Gap: Is globalization to blame? Only in part,” by James Pethokoukis, U.S. News & World Report, 22 January 2006, p. 53.

Thoughtful collection of articles on the ever-present-and-now-rising-anxiety on globalization (which, not surprising, always grows when globalization is moving fastest).

The new source of fear on globalization is located within white-collar job categories. The globalization of R&D creates this, but so does the growing outsourcing of tasks previously seen as protected by their high status: like components of lawyering or doctoring.

Then there’s this lurid fascination with the top 1 percent who are cleaning up--Michael Jordan style--as the search for global talent gets hotter and hotter. But that’s a hard one to curtail, since the rising complexity of managing global corps simply drives up the cost of effective leadership.

I mean, who wants less effective leadership of these globe-spanning industry leaders?

Plus, while everyone’s whining about the need for more “soft power” leadership from America, there it is, staring us in the face: our execs get the chance to shape the economic futures of foreign economies through such work. We grow the Core by first and foremost preserving it and making it more resilient over time.

If that “winning” generates mini-Gaps back home (my hometown of Boscobel is surrounded by such “losing,” as factory after factory sees jobs go abroad), then we can either step up to the implied challenge of job retraining and life-long learning, or we can put up walls and simply delay the inevitable.

The way ahead is one that many experts have frequently cited in the past (from The Economist:

In Europe, Denmark has led the way. The Danish system of “flexicurity” appears to offer the best of both worlds: dynamic labour markets and low unemployment couples with generous support for those who lose their jobs.

Denmark has a long history of weak job protection. Employers hire and dismiss people at will. Around a quarter of the workforce is unemployed at some point in any year. But the jobless enjoy generous welfare benefits while they look for work, around 80% of their previous wage on average. To ensure this does not deter people from finding new jobs, the Danes oblige the unemployed to be trained and to look diligently for work.

The European Union is urging its member to follow the “flexicurity” model. Democratic wonks in America enthuse about it too. But Denmark’s approach has evolved over decades and cannot easily be copied. Besides, it is extremely expensive.

Denmark spends 2% of its GDP on such stuff, while the USG spends about 0.16%, so we’re told America could never match such a program--at least with our state. But since, as the article points out, “employers are far better at training workers than the state,” our best approach would seem logical enough: tax breaks or other incentives for private business to engage in this sort of effort as broadly as possible.

Another option described is wage insurance.

The Economist’s final take is a good one:

The tasks of freeing up labour (in Europe), reforming health care (in America) and improving education (everywhere) are far more important than any amount of experimentation with wage insurance or retaining schemes.

Will we see that from the ascendant protectionists in Congress? Not if Lou Dobbs and others of his ilk get their way.

You want to watch the most awkward hand-off on TV today? Just check out Wolf Blitzer giving Lou Dobbs preview time at the end of his nightly broadcast. It’s like watching a scientist introduce an evangelist--a total freak show during which Blitzer can barely keep a straight face (he often references Lou’s “conversion”).

China: “I’m stepping out”

ARTICLE: “A quintet, anyone? China is making it clear that it wants a bigger role in the Middle East,” The Economist, 13 January 2007, p. 37.

ARTICLE: “Chinese Leader to Visit Sudan For Talks on Darfur Conflict,” by Howard W. French, New York Times, 25 January 2007, p. A4.

OP-ED: “China’s Missile Message,” by Elizabeth Economy, Washington Post, 25 January 2007, p. A25.

WEEK IN REVIEW: “Look Up! It’s No Meteor, It’s an Arms Race,” by William J. Broad, New York Times, 21 January 2007, p. WK3.

OP-ED: “Debris in Space: The real ‘fallout’ from the Chinese missile,” by Bruce Berkowitz, Wall Street Journal, 25 January 2007, p. A18.

Makes perfect sense: China’s economic profile around the world skyrockets, but its military role lags way behind (primarily out of fear of scaring the U.S. into rivalry), so it backfills with diplomacy. It throws what it has in abundance at the problems it encounters: money and people. It encounters problems primarily as a result of its great weakness: a huge and burgeoning need for commodities and energy from outside sources.

China’s secret weapon? According to The Economist: “Unlike other outside powers involved in the Middle East, China is on good terms with everyone.”

So in one week both Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator (Larijani) and Israel’s PM Olmert come to call on Hu and Wen in Beijing, instantly catapulting them beyond our powerless SECSTATE Condi Rise on the pecking chain of global diplomacy.

It gets better.

Last month, the Chinese foreign ministry played host to what it called its first non-governmental seminar bringing together former senior Israeli and Palestinian officials to discuss ways of achieving peace. They reached a consensus that must have pleased their hosts. China, they said in a statement, should increase its influence in the Middle East and join the “Quartet” (America, the European Union, the UN and Russia) that is pursuing peace efforts. This, China’s press quoted a Palestinian participant as saying,” would help counter the bias of “some countries” involved.

China becomes the Barack Obama of global diplomacy. We want both for the same reasons, despite their obvious lack of accomplishments to date: they’re not George Bush and his team.

Sad.

I have long predicted that we’d get our diplomatic butts kicked when China’s 5th generation of leaders showed up, but that prediction is OBE by the Bush-Cheney isolationism-through-incompetence strategy. China’s prestige rises by default.

Get used to it.

We don’t handle Sudan because we’re too busy getting trapped in our “global war” in the Persian Gulf. So China will take a stab at it.

Again, get used to that dynamic.

Bush and Cheney have pursued a pattern of “exceptionalism” in our foreign policy, Economy points out, and the longer we do that the more we can expect China to do the same.

But just like in the ASAT test example, whenever China steps out, they tend to highlight the overlapping strategic interests we share (and, as with satellites, shared strategic burdens that we bear more than others).

Our goal in this stepping out process for China, which is inevitable and good if we shape it correctly, is to limit the damage and “debris” that inevitably follows their initial, clumsy attempts. Of course, China’s answer would be, “but our debris is far smaller than yours--on average!”

And looking at Afghanistan and Iraq, they’d be making a point not easily countered.

So yeah, get used to it.

Getting warmer on climate change

ARTICLE: “The Warming of Greenland: Arctic melting accelerates, revealing uncharted islands and threatening to raise sea levels all over the world,” by John Collins Rudolf, New York Times, 16 January 2007, p. D1.

OP-ED: “A warmer world is ripe for conflict and danger,” by David Cameron, Financial Times, 24 January 2007, p. 11.

WORLD IN 2007: “Scientific argument settled: All that is left is the collection action problem in which no one wants to be at a disadvantage,” by Fiona Harvey, Financial Times, 24 January 2007, p. 8.

A lot of colleagues want me to start talking up global warming in my strategic vision, and while I’m attracted to it as an “inevitability,” I will confess that I have a hard time wrapping my mind around the strategic imperatives its emergence portends.

I find myself haunted by Bjorn Lomborg’s argument that while the 20th century saw ocean levels rise somewhere north of 6 inches, it wasn’t exactly the predominant geopolitical agenda driver of that era, so why should a predicted rise of somewhere just north of a foot this century become the great driver of global change?

Yes, I understand that many scientists lean toward the more high-end estimates of 3 feet, and I get the “feedback mechanisms” arguments from Gore that say an inflection point may be near, linked largely to major ice melting around the planet that’s rapidly increasing.

But even when I get the scary computer animation on places going underwater, I find myself wondering if preventing that sort of change is very realistic. If it’s not, then I wonder about the opportunity costs associated with trying. Humans have a tendency to go wild with these sorts of corrections, creating more trouble than they’re worth. Plus, we often tackle the most fantastic tasks while bypassing the more reasonable ones.

Case in point: the FT article shows a map displaying WHO estimates of deaths caused by climate change in 2000. Now, first off, blaming all this on the singular causality of climate change is a bit much, but let’s look at where the WHO logs all these extra deaths (about 35m): there are overwhelming centered in the Gap and in the interior poor regions of New Core pillars like China.

Now, since the deaths recorded are diarrheal diseases, malaria, malnutrition, cardiovascular, HIV/AIDS and cancer, my first instinct is to say, let’s work on the health habits and medical systems of these countries, because global warming or not, the vast majority of these deaths are prevented or delayed most easily by that path than by alternative strategies that may limit much needed growth for these populations. I mean, I gotta argue that poverty kills more around the world than global warming does--hands down.

As you all know, I make consistent argument that tackling instability and violence inside the Gap is a key prerequisite for setting in motion economic development in the bulk of these developing states, so if I bought into the tie that global warming will lead to violence, then the circle would be squared and I’d hop on the bandwagon.

Problem is, I don’t find those arguments convincing. The “resource wars” literature is just so weak on logic and so amazingly bereft on historical data. The proponents mostly gin up scary scenarios, and then suppose violence must result from resource shortages (thus everyone’s going to war with everyone to get oil, water, food, etc.) When the history of mankind is very clear on this subject: growing interdependencies create the impetus for shared solutions, not zero-sum fights, whether they’re interdependencies of abundance or scarcity. In fact, scarcity fuels deal making even more than abundance--just like in trade in general.

I don’t think there’s any doubt that a rapid up tick in global sea levels would trigger some serious humanitarian crises (Bangladesh comes to mind), and if of sufficient magnitude we could be talking serious System Perturbations that segue into serious global rule-set change.

But until we get more outcomes instead of just more data, global warming remains a background issue for the world: something we work slowly over time, incrementally changing behavior.

So, on this score, I guess I stand uncorrected until the system gets bonked on the head in some way as to supercede current agendas, which in both the Core and Gap, are jam-packed with difficult issues that involve plenty of death and can be tackled at better cost-benefit ratios that are more easily understood by leaders and the led alike. There simply is no differentiating play--for now--that creates clear winners and losers. So long as it’s perceived that we’re all losing in a roughly equal fashion, leadership simply will not emerge politically, even as it does so inevitably in the business realm.

The Holy Land ain’t the only land

EDITORIAL: “Diaspora blues: Jews around the world should join the debate about Israel, not just defend whatever it does,” The Economist, 13 January 2007, p. 14.

ARTICLE: “Second thoughts about the Promised Land: Jews all around the world are gradually ceasing to regard Israel as a focal point. As a result, many are re-examining what it means to be Jewish,” The Economist, 13 January 2007, p. 53.

After wading into the Carter book controversy a while back, I got a lot of emails (the most interesting being from Israelis and Palestinians) that said in effect: “Don’t waste your time and energy on this subject right now in America, because the debate’s so poisoned that your only fate is to be accused of anti-Semitism.” Now, since I’ve been personally hounded over the years by Israel-hating types for just the opposite charge, I find a nice symmetry in the implied challenge (especially since the pro-Israel nuts have a better sense of humor and level more interesting personal threats than the anti-Israel nuts do).

Still, the greater temptation for this grand strategist is to blow off the entire scenario, believing, as I long have, that its highly mythologized resolution is no closer to appearing today than it ever was in the past, and that, even if it did appear, it would change nothing of great importance in the region, because making Israel-the-problem go away doesn’t change the underlying problems that still affect the region. That’s why I really spent almost no words on this subject across my two books to date. I basically consider it a red herring--the bright shiny object that grabs our attention.

I don’t see a good outcome ever emerging. I just see demographics that slowly disfavor Israel, thus making it more intransigent and harsh over time. The only solution set I imagine is a Middle East that connects up to the larger world, grows up in that process, and ultimately forgives Israel’s “olive tree” requirement because Muslims simply move beyond their own.

And buddy, that’s one loooong-term view.

But seriously, you can either run with the breakthroughs or stay with the loggerheads, and I prefer running with the breakthroughs. So rather than focus on a West that indulges and protects Israel (fine and dandy as historical guilt trips go), I’d rather focus on a rising East that does the real heavy lifting over time with Islam (especially as Europe seems intent on taking a pass for as long as possible).

I know that solution set is equally hard for many to imagine, but I like the economic and demographic and energy “inevitabilities” of that pathway a whole lot better than the ones we face in our support for Israel (which I believe gets harder to sustain over time, in largest part because the average American just doesn’t get the whole “land” fixation).

I, for example, have a deep faith in the life and teachings of Jesus Christ, but if you tell me tomorrow that his whole story took place in south Asia instead of southwest Asia, that changes nothing for me. I realize that puts me at odds with a host of evangelicals who maintain that intense land fixation as part of their faith, but I believe primordial fixations in general are to be avoided if you want to do well in this business: you acknowledge them as motivations of others, you just don’t indulge yourself.

I don’t believe in the “chosen” anything or anyone. I think the best rule set wins out every time, and that America’s leadership globally is highly dependent on the state of our rule set--an exceptionalism that was won and can just as easily be lost (as Bush seems intent on proving). So no fundamentalism for me, no exclusionary ideology, and nothing that says anybody’s inherently better than anyone else. What separates the best from the rest is not what you believe but how you act, and how you act is best captured in the rule sets you codify and uphold, not some chunk of land or religious belief. You declare America is relocating tomorrow to South America and me and mine are on the first plane heading down. I like the rule set. I can always change the land.

What I found interesting about these articles (both of which are great) is that growing sense among a lot of Jews around the world that the diaspora concept somehow no longer defines their place in the world. My favorite bits:

Most diaspora Jews still support Israel strongly. But now that its profile in the world is no longer that of heroic victim, their ambivalence has grown: Many are disturbed by the occupation [the nerve Carter hits] of the Palestinian territories or more recently by images of Israeli bombing in Lebanon; some fear they give grist to anti-Semites. Quite a few think Jewish religious and cultural life in Israel is stunted. Others question the point of a safe haven that, thanks to its wars and conflicts, is now arguably the place where most Jews are killed because they are Jews. The most radical say, as the Palestinians do, that the idea of an ethnically based state is racist and archaic.

What is more, the last great waves of aliyah, immigration to Israel, have ended. Barring a new burst of anti-Semitism, the map of world Jewry will change slowly from now on. Each community is evolving in its own way. Some are seeing a revival unthinkable a few years ago. And young Jews especially are asking what Israel means to them. Some, say Caryn Aviv and David Shneer, two American scholars, in a recent book, “New Jews” (New York University Press), reject the notion that they are in a “diaspora,” which envisions the Jewish world hierarchically with Israel on top, the diaspora on [the] bottom”…

Clashes over “who is a Jew” cooled American-Jewish attitudes to Israel well before the second Palestinian intifada

The trouble, says Mr. [Roger] Bennett [director of special projects at the Bronfman Foundation], is that the mainstream American Jewish institutions were born to make the case for Israel and to fight anti-Semitism. Young Jews today, however, are searching for identity, spirituality, meaning and roots. Unlike their grandparents, they are not concentrated among other Jews but spread out across society. They do not meet people in synagogues or other Jewish forums, but form their own networks. “Jewish” is just one part of their multi-faceted American identity, and Israel does not seem that relevant.

I don’t find that evolution of Jews in America particularly unique. I think it’s happened to every group that’s come here over time, as the struggles that once dominated their lives back in the homeland fade over time in their consciousness and self-identity. After all, America is a synthetic collection of diasporas from the world over. We all gave up the land, and have, as a result of their intermixing, seen our faith none-too-subtly altered from its roots--as I predict/note is already happening with Islam in America.

I am a big believer in this rule set. I think it’s the best path for both peace and prosperity, and through those two precursors, for democracy itself. I think the more we spread this message around the world, understanding, and being quite patient about, its necessary sequencing (a big theme of my work), the better the world becomes. I think our package is under constant revision, being a synthesis of all who joined our ranks in the past and all who will necessarily do so in the future, and so I believe in remaining open to new definitions of that package as a matter of course, because I want our rule set to always be the best one out there.

What we’re creating in Iraq

COVER STORY: “Iraq’s Young Blood,” by Christian Caryl, Newsweek, 22 January 2007, p. 25.

BRIEFING: “The president’s last throw: George Bush announces one more push for ‘victory.’ Is he just reinforcing failure?” The Economist, 13 January 2007, p. 24.

If it was just the American people doubting the surge strategy, that would be one thing.

But it’s all the expert opinion too, plus the regional players (many of whom desperately fear our failure), and our allies (Britain’s basically leaving).

In the normal world, those are all considered big signs that one’s thinking is sort of screwed up, but Bush, who confuses stubbornness and incuriosity with resoluteness and certitude, chooses his own path. To me, that’s a presidency out of control, lost in its own Gap.

Here is what that disconnect gets us in Iraq to date:

A DoS poll last summer “found nine out of 10 young Iraqis, Sunni and Shia, saw the United States as an occupying force.”

Iraq’s government admits that 70 percent of kids no longer go to elementary school regularly [that percentage matches the unemployed, not surprisingly; as recently as last year it is estimated that 75% attended]

“Jonathan Powers, a former U.S. Army captain who served in Iraq in 2003 and now directs a nonprofit working with kids there, notes that the ongoing violence is creating a generation that is undereducated, unemployed, traumatized and, among boys in particular, ripe for the vengeful appeals of militias and insurgent groups.” [That corresponds to everything I get through privileged channels from Iraq.]

“Powers likes to point that when he served in Iraq the going rate to have an IED planted was $1,000, with another $1,000 paid for killing an American. Now, he says, kids will set bombs for as little as $20.

[The dog years impact of traumatizing violence:] “In one survey of kids in the Iraqi capital, some 47 percent of respondents said they’d witnessed a ‘major traumatic event.’”

“In a February 2006 study published by the Association of Psychologists of Iraq, 92 percent of the kids surveyed showed signs of learning impediments.”

“The exodus of middle-class Iraqis--some 2 million refugees now live outside Iraq--has eviscerated the least sectarian slice of society.”

Will someone please tell me what Dick Cheney knows that the none of the rest seem able to figure out?

Because here’s the historical record on good and bad peacekeeping jobs by America:

→Bosnia and Kosovo were good, and featured 22-23 soldiers per thousand population.

→Somalia and Haiti were bad, and featured 3-4 soldiers per thousand population.

→Afghanistan sits at 0.5, and Iraq’s at 6.1.

→Even when the Iraqi army is added in, we’re at about 14.

→Experts say 20 is the solid minimum for foreign troops.

→This surge puts us back up in the 160k range. We hit that peak twice before in 2004 and in 2005. The impact on troops per thousand will be negligible.

Bush and Cheney were told all this going in, and decided otherwise. They still decide otherwise.

We could have had the troops if we made the deals with others to get them. But Bush and Cheney don’t do diplomacy. They don’t trade. They don’t compromise. They don’t talk to enemies.

Instead, they consistently put our troops in the worst possible strategic position, and when they’re called on those bad choices, Bush and Cheney dare Congress to cut funding to the troops, recalling the phrase that patriotism is the last refuge for scoundrels.

We’ve waited almost four years for the corrections to come, and yeah, when you screw things up, you end up compromising.

Happens to the best, happens to the rest.

Real leaders admit mistakes and do what’s right. Bad ones just run out the clock, throwing the ball out of bounds.

Please, no more Medals of Freedom.

The sacred American cotton “farmer”

ARTICLE: “Out of Africa: Cotton and Cash,” by G. Pascal Zachary, New York Times, 14 January 2007, p. BU1.

ARTICLE: “Myth of the Small Farmer: Federal subsidies have turned agricultural operations into big businesses,” by Gilbert M. Gaul, Sarah Cohen and Dan Morgan, Washington Post, 22-28 January 2007, p. 11.

First story is a neat one about how some American cotton traders are hedging their bets on ag subsidies by establishing market ties with African growers, who, as I noted in a previous post, actually grow their crops cheaper than we do in the U.S., it’s just that our government takes enough off our farmers’ output to effectively undercut Africa’s growers, keeping them poor.

The American traders in this story naturally take advantage of that fact, paying undermarket prices for the African cotton they scoop up.

This is protectionism of the worst sort: America and Africa in a neck-and-neck race to be the world’s largest cotton producer. Why we’re pursuing this title in this day and age, screwing over Africa in the process, is beyond me, especially when the mythical small American farmer (dream on, Willie Nelson) has long since passed from the scene.

Most disappeared in the 1970s, when the big agribusinesses started moving onto the scene. Most of the farm kids who rode the bus to school in 1st grade when I attended grade school (1968) were city kids by the time we entered high school in 1976.

My Mom will tell you today that only two types of people buy local farms: Amish and outsiders looking for second homes (especially for hunting).

Today, large and very large farms make up less about 10% of the number of farms. Small and medium represent only about 25%. So-called “hobby farms” account for over two-thirds. The government rather cynically defines any farm as one with $1k in production. By doing so, it maintains the myth of the small farmer in sheer percentage numbers. Overall, the hobby farms account for a tiny fraction of U.S. production.

The big farms and agribiz joints, while just 10% of the total number, generate 60% of the production. They also get over half of the subsidies.

We spent $15 billion on ag subsidies in income support or price guarantees. Even with Bush’s “huge” plus up of aid to Africa, that number remains significantly smaller.

Cotton still enslaves, it would seem, and the U.S. Government still plays a rather creepy role in perpetuating that economic disenfranchisement.

And yet we’re so fast to condemn the mercantilist strategies of Chinese trade in Africa, amazingly enough. They’re just stingy, while we seem closer to rip-off artists on this one--and anti-market at that.

If Africans can grow cheaper than Americans, then they should reap the benefits of that status. Denying that outcome is just cheating, plain and simple.

The Comfort Inn's got free wireless

And nothing else.

January 31, 2007

Tom on Hugh's show yesterday

Transcript and audio are up.

Here's a teaser for you:


HH: Europe is not bringing in easily assimilated people. They’re bringing in, as Mark Steyn argues in America Alone, people who don’t want to assimilate. I know you have disagreements, Mark is a guest on this show every single week…

TB: Right.

HH: Swing away.

Check 'em out.

Bottom up or top down?

A reader wrote in with this question:

The real question on the "surge" to me whether this is bottom up or top down idea. If it is bottom up with input from the boots it has a decent chance but if from the top down very little.
Previous top-down (Abizaid) replaced by new top down (Bush-Cheney w buy-in from Petraeus).

The bottom-up feeling is get out because we're no longer in control and can't stem the sectarian stuff without about 400k, but that's fantasy because we'd need a huge influx of allies and Bush-Cheney simply can't manage that after not cultivating those relationships all these years.

Bush should have come out in second term and really pressed wide range of allies for stabilizing troops. He should have mea culpa'd like crazy and made the deals.

Then he could have gone out a winner and the compromises would have seemed reasonable. This way, though, he sets up his successor to eat crow, and I don't think that's good leadership.

Nothing to lose and a legacy to gain

ARTICLE: How Bush Can Ensure No More Iraqs: The U.S. is only a few bright ideas away from being the nation builder it needs to be, By Max Boot, Los Angeles Times, January 31, 2007

Great piece by Boot, showing how the SysAdmin/Department of Everything Else can actually be finessed beaucratically into being far more easily than most think.

I know I've been nasty on Bush lately, but I think he really deserves it. He still has huge opportunity to leave the DoD so much better off than he found it, because our difficulties in Iraq mean he's free to make dramtic changes not just in operations but in organization. He's got two years and the best men for the main jobs in the military, but he seems to be passing off more than stepping up.

Boot's points are great: Bush proposed that Civilian Reserves, but unless some bold actions are taken, it's just another good idea left for the next president.

And that's too bad, because Bush really does have the freest hand possible right up to 20 Jan 2009, and he's got virtually nothing to lose and a legacy to gain.

Thanks to an anonymous reader for sending this.

Boomers suck as politicians

ARTICLE: Senate Allies of Bush Work to Halt Iraq Vote, By CARL HULSE and THOM SHANKER, New York Times, January 31, 2007

ARTICLE: Choice for No. 2 at State Dept. Defends Bush’s Stance on Iran, By HELENE COOPER, New York Times, January 31, 2007

The resolutions should be blocked, serving their primary purpose of signalling to Bush that the Dems plan on following through on what the public signalled in the Nov election.

But Bush-Cheney just seem intent on ignoring that message and that of the GOP establishment as signalled by Baker's ISG.

Listen to the CSPAN Senate coverage: you're hearing member after member from both sides calling for a regional dialogue at least on Iraq. I mean, come on! How can the White House blow off the election, the new majority, its own party elders, its own party members on the Hill, and the ISG?

To me, that's way beyond any self-destructive behavior I saw with Bill Clinton, and frankly, I'm amazed to say that.

I'm just really beginning to believe that while the Boomers have had world-shaking accomplishments in economics and technology, they simply suck as politicians.

DiB math

Great bit from a biz dev guy at a total SysAdmin-like firm that works the Gap over: "We need to build 2-Sigma facilities but connect them up to 6-Sigma infrastructure."

Bush's essential choice

Does he want to be in charge more than he wants to be successful?

Way cool model of the ISS in Huntsville airport

iss1.jpg

I have a killer PPT that tracks the history of manned spaceflight that I give to my kids's classes, which includes a 30-slide build of the ISS (International Space Station), so I'm a rare person who instantly recognizes the form. Last night I watched a cable station that seemed to be a sort of NASA-ISS CNN. A weird case of out-of-sight, out-of-mind for most people, but since I plan on dying somewhere off this planet (it's the Kirk in me), I remain fascinated.

iss2.jpg

Who are our friends, really?

ARTICLE: Not-So-Strange Bedfellow, By Thomas L. Friedman

Great piece by Friedman. I like to make similar arguments with Iran v. Pakistan.

Makes you wonder who exactly is pushing us so hard into a war with Iran.

We've gotta lotta friends who don't have our best interests at heart and like to use and manipulate us extensively.

I like to remember that every time I hear we can't possibly talk to Iran because they won't really want to "help" us (Duh! Ya think?).

Lotta "allies" out there who don't really want to help us, so spare me the lecture on those "untrustworthy" Iranians.

Expect everybody to be exactly who they are--and nobody else.

Thanks to Tyler Durden for sending this.

What are we not doing?

ARTICLE: Twisting Arms Isn't as Easy as Dropping Bombs, By Shankar Vedantam, Washington Post, January 29, 2007; Page A02

Good research that buttresses our common sense appreciation of the limits of "war within the context of war." You want an opponent to submit militarily? Pretty easy for U.S.

But if you want a country to change and simply apply military power alone, you will lose half the time.

The point to take away is not to avoid trying. Failed states don't heal themselves. The question to ask is, What are we not doing now that gets us a "loss" half the time on coercive efforts?

Steve and I say what we're missing is an effective SysAdmin force/function, followed up with connectivity efforts like Development-in-a-Box.

So what this research says to me is that the SysAdmin should prove decisive in roughly half our military interventions, because just shooting the place is not enough.

Thanks to Jean Rogers for sending this.

About January 2007

This page contains all entries posted to Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog in January 2007. They are listed from oldest to newest.

December 2006 is the previous archive.

February 2007 is the next archive.

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