Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

ARTICLE: “Palestinian Leader Orders Forces to Find Seized Israeli: Israel Masses Troops and Armor at Border,” by Steven Erlanger, New York Times, 27 June 2006, p. A8.

ANALYSIS: “Hamas: Rivalry Breeds Extremes,” by Steven Erlanger, New York Times, 2 July 2006, p. WK4.

ARTICLE: “Seizures Show New Israel Line Against Hamas: Party Officials to Face Criminal Charges,” by Steven Erlanger, New York Times, 30 June 2006, p. A1.

ARTICLE: “Israel Squeezes, Steering Gazans Toward Hamas,” by Ian Fisher, New York Times, 2 July 2006, p. A1.

EDITORIAL: “Hamas Provokes a Fight,” New York Times, 29 June 2006, p. A24.

First I was a clear Israel-backer with PNM, because of my arguments on Iraq. Then I was a clear enemy of Israel with BFA, because of my arguments on Iran. Naturally, many saw me as just plain inconsistent, because you have to be one or the other, right?

Well, I think Israel is doing the right thing right now on this latest terrorist attack from Palestine. The one-state solution with the fence isn’t enough if Hamas can’t change its stripes once in power. Israel has waited long enough for some signs, and then got a clear one with this tunnel-enabled attack.

The truth is worse than the implied assumption: Hamas may well have had nothing to do with the attack, because Hamas is no more in control of Palestine’s security situation than Fatah was.

The Palestinians have a bitter joke: What would happen if the Palestinian Authority disappeared? The answer: How could you tell?

Those of us who argued for patience had the hope that Hamas’ reputation for unity would mean than deeds would match words, but that unity has proven to be quite fragile. The political wing can promise, but the military wing does what it wants, as do the exiles in Lebanon and Syria.

Israel isn’t strangling the infant government, Hamas’ military wing is, but expect Israel to extend its punishment to those it can reach: the political leaders and the people in the West Bank and Gaza.

Yes, this effort will be largely fruitless in discrediting Hamas, as the rally-round-the-incompetents effect will be profound (why should anything change in the shift from corrupt and incompetent Fatah to more honest and incompetent Hamas?). But not much will be lost in this punitive push that won’t be lost anyway.

The NYT is correct:

Contrary to the hopes of many outsiders, five months in government has failed to educate Hamas to the reality of the world the Palestinians live in. Hamas has merely assumed the political privileges of power without accept the minimal responsibilities that go with it.

In short, Hamas cannot police its own, so the promises of its electoral victory are illusory.

And so the Wall continues to go up with a determined logic, and my blessing. The one-state solution may be costly today, but it’s the best long-term choice for Israel, which will do just fine with its amazingly robust and competitive economic connectivity.

Meanwhile, Palestine will continue to rot from within…