Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

Dateline: Guest House, Principia College, north of St. Louis, actually on IL side of river, 1 April 2005

Sad but eventful day. Last year we buried my Dad on 1 April. This year Mark Warren turned in 140k manuscript to G.P. Putnam's Sons on my behalf.

Got up this a.m., helped Vonne head out with the four kids, then worked out (finishing Mansfield Park on DVD), then some emails and phonecons (cancelling our old medical plan since we're now covered under the National Association of the Self-Employed!). Then jump in car and drive to Boston Logan, catching an American Eagle direct to St. Louis. Only problem, it's a commuter jet with three-across. Sat next to nice lady though, so that helped in the tight quarters. Enough to make the right knee ache.

Oy! Another reminder of getting older!

Here at little Principia, which puts on one helluva annual international affairs conference each year. This year ("Understanding Globalization") being the 56th.

Benjamin Barber was last night's speaker and they have political science legend James Rosenau tomorrow, with me keynoting tonight.

Gotta get changed after quick shower, then off to dinner in my honor (2 hours), then I speak in large theater (good set-up) for about 75 with Q&A, then reception.

Then up for 0600 departure.

Tried to write intro to Chapter 4 en route. Ended up starting with intro to Chapter 5 and ending with good segue. Tomorrow I will have to come up with new beginning to intro, but at least I have head start on Chapter 5's, which will be the last new writing I do on the book, unless Mark makes me pen a new intro para on the Afterward (Blogging the Future).

Something to turn in another book. Will be using image of its cover for first time in brief tonight.

Bit of a practice here being in Midwest. Realizing that I70 takes you to Indy, our new big city.

Das ist alles. . .

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 2 April 2005

Oooh! I hate that Mark Warren!

As I always do whenever he makes me re-write extensively. He had told me previously that the shrinking-the-Gap alternative scenarios section (number 1 of 3 in Chapter 4) was, in his words, "incredibly clotted" with jargon. Whenever Warren says "clotted," I cringe, because it means I have a lot of work to do over a large section, and this one was no different from any of the others in that way.

Backtracking a bit: last night I was at Principia College where I did the Friday night keynote speech in a rather nice auditorium. Before the talk, there was a great dinner in my honor at the college president's house, one of the most lovely old houses I have ever been in, especially since it sits perched on a towering bluff that affords huge views of the Mississippi as it rolls by.

Treat of the evening was listening to two significant historical figures: one was James Rosenau, a towering academic in my field, and the other was Watergate plumber Bud Krogh, who can tell plenty of fascinating stories about the Nixon White House, where he served in the General Counsel's office (I believe he was actually the only WH official to plead guilty and take his medicine willingly, which marked him as an unusual figure in that whole affair).

My talk later went well, but far too long--a result of not having given it in three weeks plus being so G.D. fatigued by the week and the nervous energy surrounding the book's submission (actually, it makes me nervous now to think Nyren's probably perusing it right now). Right after the talk I signed about 30 paperback editions of PNM for students and faculty.

That's right! Paperbacks!

Somehow the book store at Principia got Putnam to send them a box of paperbacks all these weeks prior to release. It was pretty amazing to hold one in my hand finally, but not for long, because the student wanted my signature and then to walk off with it. I would have bought one myself but they sold out quickly.

Edition looks nice. They put the map in the front matter pages in a nice gray-scale version. Lots of I-love-Barnett quotes up there too. Overall, pretty cool and certainly thrilling to handle--it coming as such a surprise.

Up at 0600 for my drive to airport. Tackled the intro to Chapter 4 on plane, and then, upon return home, I spent several hours rewriting the first section of Chapter 4 (waiting on the last two sections from Warren--but screw it, because I'm done for the day!).

Gotta give Jerry a bath and then we watch something on the widescreen--me and the kids.

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 3 April 2005

In the 13 months since FA began its BSL, PNM has appeared the greatest number of months (11), while the two next-most frequent are Pete Petersen's book and the volume by Anonymous at 9 each. Held my position at #12 from February. This time I do expect to be my last, because we're now within a month of the paperback coming out.

Here's the complete list (find it online at www.foreignaffairs.org/book/bestsellers):

Foreign Affairs Best Seller List

The top-selling hardcover books on American foreign policy and international affairs. Rankings are based on national sales at Barnes & Noble stores and Barnes & Noble.com.

POSTED APRIL 1, 2005

1) Collapse by Jared Diamond (Viking), # 1 last month

2) China, Inc. by Ted C. Fishman (Scribner), #2

3) The Case for Democracy by Natan Sharansky (PublicAffairs), #3

4) 9/11 Commission Report by National Commission on Terrorist Attacks (Norton), #5

5) Chatter by Patrick Radden Keefe (Random House), #15

6) John Kenneth Galbraith by Richard Parker (Farrar, Straus and Giroux), new

7) The United States of Europe by T. R. Reid (Penguin Press), #6

8) America's Secret War by George Friedman (Doubleday), #8

9) The European Dream by Jeremy Rifkin (Tarcher), #9

10) The Persian Puzzle by Kenneth M. Pollack (Random House), #11

11) Running on Empty by Peter G. Peterson (Farrar, Straus & Giroux), #4

12) The Pentagon's New Map by Thomas P.M. Barnett (Putnam), #12

13) The Superpower Myth by Nancy Soderberg (John Wiley & Sons), new

14) Our Oldest Enemy by John J. Miller and Mark Molesky (Doubleday), #13

15) Imperial Hubris by Anonymous (Brassey's), #7

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 3 April 2005

Googling a bit yesterday, I came upon an entry for the Turkish edition from an online Turkish bookstore

This is what the entry said:

Pentagon'un Yeni Haritası
Price : $ 31.99

Author : Thomas P. M. Barnett

ISBN : 9758992015

Edited By : İsmail Şallı

Translated By : Cem Küçük

Publisher : 1001 Kitap

City, Date : Istanbul, Jan. 2005

Number of pages : 480

In stock; will ship out in 1 business day.

And here is the image of the cover:

Will have to ask my agent why I haven't received any compimentry copies yet!

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 3 April 2005

Spoke with Mark today by phone. He's working the rest of Chapter 4 and promises to get it to me tonight. I will do the callouts in the text for new material tomorrow and then review the Chapter as a whole over two long air flights.

Today kind of blew by after spending so many hours slaving over the first part of Chapter 4 yesterday.

Planted a bunch of Easter lillies out front to make Vonne happy regarding house showing. House lists tomorrow, so we expect visitors NLT Wednesday. We hate to gear up for shows, so we're hoping this place gets bought up fast. We ourselves made an offer on the place 5 years ago on the first day it was showing. We waited an entire 30 minutes after seeing the place--that's how much better it was then that what we were seeing on the island. And that was before the basement was done, so our hopes are high.

Afternoon lost to older son's b-day party. Just three boys, plus my two other older kids, and an afternoon at LazerGate in Fall River MA. A shoot-em-up laser gun competition that we played twice, plus a lot of other games.

Night lost to keeping house spic-and-span.

Read Thomas Friedman's piece in NYT Sunday Magazine. His "Flat Earth" book comes out this week and this was the big, NYT-engineered splash. I must say, I was unimpressed by the piece. If Friedman thinks that telling everyone about outsourcing is going to make for a great book, then I think he's run out of ideas completely. But I'm sure the book is full of Geo-Green and a host of other kewl phrases he's worked to death in his columns. But just stringing those together with all his "conversations" with famous people gets a bit tiresome. I really feel like he's in a rut and needs to change jobs or something to get back to what he once did. He's becoming a hybrid Andy Warhol/Rooney on globalization: either too poppy or too cranky. Like most reporters, he's good when he's discovering something, not beating it to death. I watch Kristof to see is he's going to succumb similarly, but he continues to treat his op-ed column more like his personal beat column than his bully pulpit, so for now he's still putting out solid stuff, where Friedman seems like he's firing blanks more and more. I am disturbed by his decline, because I fear it tells me there is only so much to be said and then you need to move on--either to new topics or new positions.

Title of post simply refers to Esquire now listing me as one of their "bloggers" on their front page, along with the previously-blogging-now-book-author Colby Buzzell, whose two pieces in the mag were pretty damn cool and whose book is likely to do well (I think it is Putnam too).

Me? Now I feel even more pressure to get past the book and get back to high-volume blogging. And yet, I want to work the book as much as is needed, plus I really love working with Mark so intensely during these periods. Once the book is done, then he'll be cracking his whip on me all the time because he's "Executive Editor" and I'm just a puny "Contributing Editor." Til the book is done, I'm the "talent" and he's just the "editor," so I better enjoy my superior position while I can.

Neil Nyren is reading the manuscript this weekend, I can feel it! Expect his call tomorrow. I'm saving a special brick to s--t right after the call. Hope he makes it to Mark like he did last time. Email is good enough for me. Too nerve-racking.

I'm going to see if there's anything in the house to drink. . .

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 4 April 2005

Some stories that catch my eye:

First one sent to me by friend Kevin in Berkeley and it's a Russian story about the creation of a special new combined-services military branch within the Russian military ("The Special-Purpose Army" by Russian Gazeta.ru web site on 11 March ; find at http://www.gateway2russia.com/st/art_272412.php ). Seems that Putin is moving all the Special Ops units from the seven military districts (up to now under the control of the district commands) into a single unified command much like our Special Operations Command controls all the Special Operations Forces from the four services (and likewise spread around our regional commands in units). Not sure from article how much physical centralization involved, but clearly command unity being achieved. On the surface, this seems sinister, and the article speaks in that direction (". . .perhaps will be able to start wars outside Russia's borders without the authorization of the Federation Council."), but to me, this is reflective of how our choices in military strategy naturally influence others around the world. We launch the Global War on Terrorism and designate SOCOM as the lead command in this new type of war for this new era, and Russia, taking note, says, "We need a SOCOM too!" This shows how our definition of warfare is rather self-fulfilling in a Microsoft-defining sort of way, as in, when the biggest player in the market makes a choice, others follow.

Second story is "Help Wanted: China Finds Itself With a Labor Shortage" (by Jim Yardley and David Barboza, NYT, 3 April 05, p. A4). Fascinating summary story of phenom I've been tracking: notion that China's cheap labor supply is endless is nonsense. It assumes a static development model, as if all that investment and change wouldn't result in higher wages in China like it has everywhere else in the world throughout history. After a while, you run out of 19-year-old women just off farms and willing to work for near nothing in terrible conditions. Not because you literally run out of those women, but because they have better choices after a while, so to attract them, you need to pay better and offer nicer conditions.

An intriguing counter to that story on China is yet another story on the "rich-poor gap" inside China ("China Wrestles Rich-Poor Gap: As Divide Threatens Unrest, Beijing Turns to Rural Development," by Andrew Browne, WSJ, 4 April 05, p. A12). Here's the interesting possible twist: story talks about how industry in coastal regions is unlikely to simply pull up roots and move inland just because the government wants to push development there. However . . . as labor gets tighter on coast and these companies consider outsourcing some production abroad, there is the possible dynamic whereby these companies "intra-source" in the direction of the poorer, inland provinces. How feasible is this? Beijing is pouring a lot of infrastructure money into these regions, and can certainly make it hard for these companies to outsource production if it wants that flow redirected inward, so to me, it's more than just possible, it's probably a big part of the Party's strategy to deal with rural poverty.

Pair of stories about Zimbabwe election are depressing. First one ("Mugabe Threatens to Meet Street Protests of Election Count in Zimbabwe With Force," by Michael Wines, NYT, 3 April 05, p. A5) shows how effectively Mugabe's rule has infantilized the population. There is only his party, so when he "opens" the election at the last minute, the opposition is simply too embryonic to do anything to take advantage of the "freedom," and Mugabe wins in landslide. The opposition then feels ripped off, as always, but isn't organized enough to really do anything about it. More depressing is op-ed by Sebastian Mallaby, a writer I really like. His piece ("Zimbabwe's Enabler: South Africa Falls Short As Monitor of Democracy," WP, April 4, 2005; Page A21) speaks to South Africa's non-leadership role in dealing with Mugabe's horrible rule. They basically take a pass on dealing with him, and that's pretty sad given their potential role as a Core pillar in the region.

Here's the telling three opening para:

Thursday's election in Zimbabwe was not merely stolen. It was stolen with the complicity -- no, practically the encouragement -- of Africa's most influential democrat. If you think too long about this democrat, moreover, you reach a bleak conclusion. For all the recent democratic strides in Africa, the continental leadership that was supposed to reinforce this progress is not up to the challenge.

The bankrupt democrat in question is Thabo Mbeki, South Africa's president. For the past few years, he's been promising a pan-African Renaissance, a new era in which Africans would take charge of their own problems. Mbeki led the creation of the grandly titled New Partnership for Africa's Development, which commits members to the rule of law and other principles of good government; he's the driving force behind the peer-review mechanism that's supposed to police compliance with those pledges. The New Partnership's principles are quoted frequently by Africa sympathizers who advocate more foreign assistance, and they've boosted Mbeki's profile marvelously. Mbeki has become a fixture at the rich countries' annual Group of Eight summits. He has been treated by George Bush and Tony Blair as a player. He has felt emboldened to advance South Africa as a candidate for a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council.

But do Mbeki's New Partnership principles mean anything? In the run-up to Zimbabwe's election, when the regime's thugs were denying food to suspected opposition sympathizers, Mbeki actually undercut the international pressure for a fair contest. He expressed a serene confidence that the election would be free and fair. He allowed his labor minister, who was serving as the head of the South African observer mission in Zimbabwe, to dismiss the regime's critics as "a problem and a nuisance." He quarreled with the Bush administration's description of Zimbabwe as an outpost of repression. He did everything, in other words, to signal that mass fraud would be acceptable.

Last story involves growing sense that overthrow of government in Kyrgyzstan was more a coup than people's revolution ("Kyrgyzstan's Shining Hour Ticks Away and Turns Out To Be a Plan, Old Coup," by Craig S. Smith, NYT, 3 April 05, p. A5). I think this judgment is misplaced. People's anger and "revolution" was real. What's missing here is simply a genuine civic society to take advantage of all that anger. So yeah, the people get fed up with corruption and drive out the Big Man, but there's no one in the wings ready to be anything else, so now we watch a host of Little Men all line up to replace him. The West pumps in money to help opposition parties and media, but that's a bit like creating a head with no body. People need their own confidence, and that comes with their own freedom and a sense that there's a gap between their personal freedom (typically economic) and their collective freedom (the politics). People in Kyrgyzstan know they're being ripped off politically, but they don't feel any confidence to do anything much about it besides get pissed off. That confidence will come with rising economic connectivity with the outside world, not simply with the means of voicing their anger. So nice to give aid to political parties, but offering the public the chance to develop power that isn't easily controlled by ruling elites is more fruitful over the long run. Connectivity kills dictatorships.

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 4 April 2005

Pair of good stories on the choice ahead:

1) "Facing Tough Choices, Church Opens Rites for Pope: A Global Agenda; Concerns Over the Rich and the Poor, Islam and Technology," by Laurie Goodstein, NYT, 4 April 05, p. A1.

2) "In Changing World, Church Faces Choice Over Pope's Role: John Paul's Charisma Made Up For His Hands-Off Style; Insider or Non-European?," by Gabriel Kahn, WSJ, 4 April 05, p. A1.

WSJ story is more about management, while NYT's is more about strategy.

WSJ goes on and on about how to manage a religion that's now so much more southern in orientation (about a 1/4 billion in Europe and North America, about 3/4 billion in Latin America, Africa, and Asia).

Real crux comes in this question posed by NYT piece:

"One question that the leadership of the church has to ask itself," said Christopher M. Bellitto, academic editor at Paulist Press, a large Catholic publishing house, "is will it invest most of its time and money and energy in what we used to call the third world, or will it try to pull Europe and North America back from the materialismthat John Paul II said was the curse of capitalism?"

That, my friends, is a huge question, because it speaks to whether the church is going to support globalization in a Go Fast mode (thinking of the Gap's crushing needs) or continue to criticize it in a Go Slow manner (more the Core vision and especially Old Core Europe's perspective).

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 4 April 2005

I do seem to have a future as an author, as witnessed today by Neil Nyren's first-read response to the manuscript: "I like it a lot. Clear, thoughtful and, yes, both visionary and practical."

Big words indeed for Mark and I. One, it means the other checks will happen in the advance. Neil no like, Putnam no pay. Not too too worried about this, but--you know--it's like getting a degree in college or something. It's a big damn deal no matter what the odds were.

Speaking of just BFA:AFWC, I was fairly sure Neil would like it. But in the larger sense, what his approval means is that--as far as he's concerned--there is no sophomore slump here. And that means, on the same day our house in Portsmouth gets listed for sale, that I'm not insane to move my family to Indiana as part of my grand design for a writing life.

So yeah, it was a big deal to hear those words from Neil.

Better yet, he liked both the "heroes" conclusion and the "blogging the future" afterward, and he agreed with Mark that the blog posts belonged at the end of the piece and not at the beginning (something my brother-in-law Steve first raised a red flag on, as in, "Nice, but what am I supposed to do with this right off the bat?").

So getting listed, getting approved, getting the mulch all around the house (the last great preparatory act for showing): a big enough day.

Except now I gotta head to the airport.

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 5 April 2005

Beat after long flight back from Orlando. Full day of two presentations, one interview show, and book signing at U of Central Florida (cool campus).

Woke up this morning convinced Chapter 4 should be cut.

Go to bed tonight thinking the complete opposite.

More when I'm not so blitzed.

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 6 April 2005

It's done, and we're officially over all humps on BFA. Big cuts, big rewriting, but we now have the chapter we want and it's good.

Gotta run. Got Celtics tix tonight for kids plus partner Critt and his daughter. Personal bills to pay all around.

Dateline: Pentagon City Mall, Arlington VA, 7 April 2005, (1045)

First up is the latest development in the formation of a government in Iraq. The Kurds got their way and pulled off getting their man as president. This guy's a militia leader who fought Saddam's regime for decades. Saddam watches the national assembly proceedings from his jail cell. Pretty amazing stuff ("A Kurd Is Named Iraq's President As Tensions Boil: Hussein Sees Vote on TV," by Edward Wong, NYT, 7 April 05, p. A1). The biggest immediate tensions with this development seem to be the impatience of the newly formed government for the disbanding of the interim one, which tends to have its share of former Baathists. When you've got an insurgency that similarly populated and Kurds and Shiites are the primary targets of these killers, you understand the sense of urgency underlined by anger. Allawi, the current PM is, BTW, a secular Shiite but a former Baathist. We are nearing the point, it would seem, when keeping the "good" Baathists around because they're so experienced and willing to act tough in a tough situation is at an end. Iraq for Iraqis, not Baathists, and so a purge seems in the offing. Bit scary? Sure. Awfully inevitable? Yes. For every action a reaction, and Saddam was one nasty action. Expect an equally difficult reaction on many levels. But overall a good step for us, making it easier to reduce our troop presence as we look ahead.

Second story about a belligerent China? ("China Rejects Plans to Expand Security Council," by Warren Hoge, NYT, 7 April 05, p. A3). Don't pretend to see the connectivity on this one. We ask Japan to join our defense guarantee on Taiwan, its colonial possession for the first half of the 20th century and the country taken over by the losing side of the Chinese civil war (45-49) and operated as an alternative China (owning its UNSC seat until the early 1970s) ever since. So when Japan pushes to join the UNSC, what does China do? A little payback, my friends. For Taiwan, for changing its school textbooks to reduce by half the number of Chinese killed by the occupying Japanese forces during its brutal rule in Manchuria in the 1930s and WWII, and likewise inserting new language about a couple of rock outcroppings in the South China Sea that Japan now claims out of fear that it won't otherwise join in the exploitation of large reserves of natural gas sitting under them. We can deal with those issues directly, or we can use them as levers to "contain" China's rise, as Japan seems to be doing. But don't expect China to return any favors for this treatment. WSJ story on similar dynamics ("Japan Takes Heat Amid Shift in Asia," by Sebastian Moffett et. Al, WSJ, 7 April 05, p. A12) notes that it's not just Japan that's doing this sort of balancing in the region, but South Korea too, reminding us that the solution on North Korea is part of this equation too. You watch these tensions rise and you have to wonder, Is the U.S. picking the right fights with China? Is it choosing the right opportunities? Are we forging what needs to be the most important strategic relationship of the 21st century? Or are we wasting the chance to create a much better future?

Fascinating op-ed in WSJ from Nobel-prizewinning economist Douglass North ("The Chinese Menu (for Development): Beijing's experience tests basic economic tenets," p. A14). Key part of the explanation was how China incentivized peasants toward solving food issues and freeing up labor to move into cities. Did this through individual economic empowerment without much (yet) in the way of commensurate public institutions and political pluralism typically assumed to be a prerequisite of such positive and rapid development. So China's disconnect with Old Core (Europe, US, Japan) is that economically, we're all increasingly in the same boat even as our political rule sets are quite different. North's point: it's all about rules. Try this section on for size and see if it sounds familiar:

Institutions are the way we structure human interaction—political, social and economic—and are the incentive framework of a society. They are made up of formal rules (constitutions, laws and rules), informal constraints (norms, conventions and codes of conduct), and their enforcement characteristics. Together they define the way the game is played, whether as a society or an athletic game. Let me illustrate from professional football. There are formal rules defining the way the game is supposed to be played; informal norms—such as not deliberately injuring the quarterback of the opposing team; and enforcement characteristics—umpires, referees—designed to see that the game is played according to the intentions underlying the rules. But enforcement is always imperfect and it frequently pays for a team to violate rules. Therefore, the way a game is actually played is a function of the underlying intentions embodied in the rules, the strength of informal codes of conduct, the perception of the umpires, and the severity of punishment for violating rules.

This is basically how I explain rules in my brief and in PNM, and I am often reviewed by "serious" academics as being superficial. Humphf! Say I. If it's good enough for Mr. North and his Nobel, it's good enough for me.

Next story on China ("China Moves From Piracy to Patents: More Companies Are Trying To Be Product Innovators Rather Than Just Imitators," by Alex Ortolani, WSJ, 7 April 05, p. B4) speaks to their latest example of evolving from OEM (original equipment manufacturer) to ODM (original design manufacturer). To me, this is classic maturation for a New Core state. For now, many of these patents are filled in Old Core states, especially China's biggest market, the U.S., but over time more and more get filled in China itself, and this rising transaction rate forces positive government reform over time, because it puts laws above people—including the Party. The central government pursues this path because of increased foreign competition, the article says, and that competition comes about because China joins the WTO and has to open up its economy. Taiwan went through this sort of thing a few years back regarding its semiconductor industry. We should expect to see it across the dial in China.

Then a story on the "trading houses" of Japan, the Big 5 being Mitsuibishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo, Itochu and Marubeni ("New Tricks for Japan's Old Dogs: Once Written Off, Trading House Reinvent Themselves and Thrive," by Yuka Hayashi, WSJ, 7 April 05, p. A12). My eldest brother works for Marubeni as a corporate officer in their NY branch. In the past, these trading houses were mostly middlemen for Japan's corporations as they built and acquired things around the world, and I mean the biggest projects. A lot of that business went south along with Japan's economy in the 1990s. Now, the Big 5 play similar roles, but do it more and more as independent "merchant banks" instead of slavishly serving their associated keiretsu, or families of companies allied together in a giant family of firms. In effect, instead of just getting stuff for their company families, they now are "crucial suppliers of capital, a sort of private-equity industry in themselves, though they often provide services, from financing to consulting, to go along with their investments." Their biggest mainstays today are energy and other raw materials needed by such rising pillars as India and China. This is a new rule set for the Japanese financial community, and it shows how the Old Core is increasingly dependent on the New Core's continued growth for its own financial health.

Quickie AP entry on fourth straight day of Saudi government forces' shootouts with wanted radical Islamic militants operating within their borders ("Saudi Arabia: Fourth Day of Shootouts," NYT, 7 April 05, p. A9). To me, this is another example of how the Big Bang strategy works its magic by forcing local regimes to deal with what are really local problems. So it's not just a matter of getting Iraqis to deal with radical Islamic insurgents, a nice byproduct of the Big Bang is forcing neighboring regimes like Saudi Arabia to finally start dealing with their own status as wellspring for these bad actors. Remember, in the end as well as in the beginning: all terrorism is local just like all politics is local.

A pair of competing stories on India: 1) "Low Costs Lure Foreigners to India for Medical Care," by Saritha Rai, NYT, 7 April 05, p. C6; and 2) "Arson Attack Tries to Foil Start of India-Pakistan Bus Service," by Somini Sengupta, NYT, 7 April 05, p. A6. First one is about India's latest example of . . . I guess you'd call it "in and out sourcing": medical tourists who travel there for same procedures costing 2 to 3 times as much back home. Story describes 64-year-old man who had lived with hip pain for years but couldn't bring himself to do the full-up hip replacement, even though his insurer said it would pay. Instead, he researches on the web and finds this "joint resurfacing" procedure in India for $6.6k versus the $25k it would have cost to do the same thing back home—with no coverage from his insurer (I guess they think it a bit too new). Great example of India driving technology in medicine, in effect setting some new rules. If you had described India ten years ago as a big future source for new rules in medicine (e.g., this sort of tourism, pharmaceuticals), you would have been laughed at, and yet here it is, the fascinatingly new form of connectivity between India and the Old Core, where it’s the old dog that learns the new tricks. Second story is your classic tale of the forces of disconnectedness trying to wage war against those who would foster such connectivity to further the development of peace. A few months after the last close call on war between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, businessmen with an eye toward the solution forged a simple but direct link between the two countries: a busline. No good economic argument for it, just a simple statement of what should be possible. And naturally such attempts come under attack from those who'd prefer something more zero-sum, more exclusionary, more disconnected. So a bus station on the Indian side is set ablaze. As always, India remains a microcosm of globalization: some of the most amazing and cutting-edge connectivity and some of the oldest and most nonsensical violence designed to drive people apart and keep them disconnected.

Dateline: SWA flight from PVD to BWI, 7 April 2005 (0900)

Today is a microcosm of all the stress that three big decisions I recently made (some with my spouse, some alone) are exerting over my family life. As of 2:30pm yesterday, I had canceled my two-day trip to DC to do some work for upcoming Esquire features (one with very short fuse, other longer). It had been a huge relief to do so, even as it caused me to disappoint a dear mentor regarding a promised appearance in his George Washington U. class for tonight and to cancel—at the last minute—a breakfast tomorrow with a DC-based Catholic priest who wanted to discuss the moral implications of PNM. The people in the Pentagon's office of public affairs hadn't come through with any interviews for today, plus I was feeling the crush of needing to get more work done on the book. But frankly, the main reason I was relieved was that we have four showings of the house today and one sick kid. A bit more stressing was that I took Em and Kevin (my two oldest) to a Celtics game last night in Boston (planned weeks ago), along with a friend of Em's and my partner (and webmaster) Critt and his daughter.

So here I was yesterday, feeling nervous about the book, feeling like my first effort for Esquire was falling apart, and that I was stressing how my family hugely by having to spend so much time on both right when we are trying to sell the house. Even my attempt to spend quality time with the kids was stressful, keeping them up far too late on a school night and failing to relieve Vonne of caring for Jerry because he came down with a temperature yesterday.

Then boom! I get a call and I'm on today for an interview with a senior player who's hard to access for scheduling, so I'm outta the house at 0640, leaving Vonne with four kids to manage, four house showings to endure, and Dad yet again nowhere in sight. I sit on the plane now, feeling somewhat burned out, hoping to God this interview goes through, and hoping against . . . I dunno . . . that I score maybe two others today but that no one wants to grant me one tomorrow so that I can get back on a plane tonight, get my ass home, and help out while I can.

Otherwise, I might actually be starting a long trip away from home, because I'm on tap tomorrow to fly to Indiana to start the house search with my mother-in-law and our realtor. Theoretically, I return home from that on Monday, but if my Pentagon handlers schedule interviews for Monday . . . I'll probably stop at BWI on my flights home and stay in DC for . . . who knows how long? I have a paying speech I gotta deliver in DC on Wednesday morning, with flights and hotel and . . . geez . . . did I sked a rental? Do I need to?

Worse case, I don't return home til late next week. Best case: I'm home tonight around 9pm.

I keep telling myself that everything is going well. What's stressing us all so is the success, not failures. The consulting, speaking, writing, etc. all go so well that we could move this year instead of next. But that's stressful. Having all those things go well means a certain amount of travel and crushing spurts of work, and that's stressful. The book is dragging on in schedule, but Mark and I are doing great things together and I'm very pleased with the quality of the text. The house looks great and is showing great and there are a lot of viewings and today we have our first repeater four days into the process. By all descriptions from our IN realtor, we should be able to find a big old house somewhere in the country with some land and it'll all cost about ¼ of what that would be out here in the East. Our kids are all healthy and our puppy Bailey settles in amazingly well. If we can land near Franklin IN, we probably have the three oldest all going to the same great Catholic grade school. The move is scheduled. All good stuff . . . but all incredibly stressful.

I had to pack my bag last night at midnight as if I was going to be gone for 9 days, so that meant including all my endnote materials, because I have to get that mostly done in that timeframe, no matter where I'm located.

I could really use a break today. Best case: I do my 1300 in the PNT, and then have two more lined up immediately after. I'm out of there by 1700 and make . . . geez . . . maybe the 2050 that gets me into PVD at 2200 and home about an hour before midnight.

I'll blog some news stories during the day. Pulled a bunch of interesting bits from the Times and Journal while we were ascending on this flight. Hope to get Chapter 5 from Mark today. Hoping Esquire can get me a good flight home tonight. Hoping, hoping, hoping. Stressing, stressing, stressing.

Dateline: SWA flight from BWI to PVD, 7 April 2005 (1900)

Southwest peanuts for dinner, plus a Heineken off coupons.

After a mad dash from Annapolis on US97, I just barely make the 1850 flight that Esquire sets up for me (Tyler Cabot, Mark Warren's right hand, did the honors). This way the mag gets stuck eating a hotel room in VA that they bought on a non-refundable Internet special, but I get to eat at home tonight.

After blogging a bit in the Pentagon City Mall, I took the subway one stop to the PNT itself, hanging out in the visitors lounge until my Army Lt. Col. Handler showed up from the public affairs office. Then off to my 1100 interview with a senior civilian.

Much like my briefs, I tend to start slow as an interviewer: chit chat and some offering of analysis to tee up the conversation. That typically triggers a lengthy response where the subject finds his bearings. Then you start asking specific questions. I will confess to writing fewer and fewer notes each time, focusing more on eye contact and follow-up, and only writing down the phrases that really stick in my head.

To my delight, I have gotten good at watching for the microcassette recorder's click-off when it reaches the end of the tape, and I can flip in around and back in and start it right up faster than you can wink. Today, my subjects simply stopped mid-sentence to accommodate me, and I took that as a compliment that I've gotten past my fumbling.

This interview went well in the sense that I got this perspective I find quite useful for the story, but each one sort of disappoints on their own: always just the one perspective that you must add to all the rest. No one interview provides the kicker, but each provides the sliver. Right now, I'm at the point in the story formation where I'm kinda pooling various observations into categories. So with each one I get a sense of something close to a 360 degree picture emerging, albeit in my way of looking at things.

I will readily admit this, and it worries me to no end: I am not the type to let the story flow through me unimpeded, anymore than I was ever the objective analyst. To me, I just want to crack this nut, figure out how and why it ticks in this way, and explain in the way that I've figured it out, with little effort to make it clinical or objective.

Does that make me a bad journalist? I'm not sure yet. Maybe I just need more time and experience to decide how I define such things.

I do worry I can't narrativize this in the way that Mark Warren wants for the piece, and so I go back and forth about this thing being something I will conquer or something I will abandon.

Still, fear is a good thing. Good for creativity, so why walk away from a chance to fail greatly? It's the only way you learn anything.

After the interview in The Building, I subway back to my car, armed with some phone numbers from the public affairs people (nice of them). I land an interview with a Former at his house in Annapolis, getting a phonecon interview (possibly F2F) set up with a retired Flag for next Tuesday.

I get to the Former's house around 4pm, and run with the interview until 5:15, when I can feel my internal alarm go off about my 6:50 plane at BWI. So I slip out rather easily (this guy would have talked all night, but I got the gist in about 45 minutes) and just make it to BWI in the nick of time, of course being treated to my first truly intense look-over from TSA in several years. Why? Bought a one-way at the last minute, that's why. Esquire's travel people helped by adding an extra "e" to the end of my last name. I will have to thank the guilty party on that one. But hey, who doesn't like the up-close attention of a pat-down?

Heading home, feeling tired, I try to convince myself that this was a good day, that I'll get better, and that I'll someday soon feel cut-out for this job.

Bit disconcerting? Sure. But again, a little fear is a very good thing.

Dateline: in the loft at Nona's, Terre Haute IN, 8 April 2005

Working the house with Vonne this a.m. for another G.D. showing! We're all getting a little freaked keeping the place so pristine, though the flowers in every room are quite beautiful.

Then I bug out for airport and fly to Indianapolis.

Re-edit the Neil Nyren-edited Preface on first flight (Mark had already worked over). Then re-edit the Mark Warren edited Afterward (Blogging the Future).

Pretty damn happy with both. Neil did a nice job. I like the way he makes me sound in those Prefaces. Like Mark, his edits are so transparent that you have a hard time spotting them. In fact, you tend to just breeze through the text, marveling all the while at what a fantastic writer you are!

I can't understand people who say they don't like working with editors. I really love it. It's like the best haircut: still you, but so much better! Who doesn't want a nice haircut? And who doesn't want their text to shine?

Plus, between Neil and Mark, I get so much coaching that it's just a lot more fun in collaboration. No reason for it to be a lonely process. Hell, you want people to find it accessible, right?

Nice dinner at restaurant with mother-in-law Vonne I and father-in-law Carl. Then to see their 1940s house they bought earlier in year (my first time). A way cool place and a very unique house.

Just as I see Nona Vonne at airport, she has Vonne II (my spouse) on her cell cause mine's still off from flight: we have an offer on the house on Day 5. They're asking for a suitable discount on the first offer (2.8% off our asking price). Sounds like nothing, until you see it translated in thousands!

So we're going to counter with a splitting-the-difference offer. We shall learn their response tomorrow. I think we have them where we want them. Their kids fell in love with the huge white cedar playset in the back, one I put together all by my lonesome in 2000 and on which my now four kids have played consistenly our five years in the house.

We should walk away with 40 percent of what we originally paid for the house 5 years ago. We got nothing on our first house in northern VA, so we're pretty happy with this. And since I am here to check out houses tomorrow and Sunday, the timing is pretty good, yes?

On the Esquire front: pouring over some transcripts (some from Pentagon and some from magazine interns), I am feeling less incompetent. Each interview gives me something (I've done many research-oriented interviews in years past, and I knew this was the case, but you forget), and the critical mass is being reached. Story will end up being a three-way blend anyway: general insights from secondary interviews (all I've done so far), big draw from main interview (to come), and storyline I need to generate from all of the above and my own knowledge. So today while driving to airport, I ginned up my proposed storyline and I was able to generate 35 salient points, some from interviews so far and some I just plain know. This will be vetted with several knowledgeable people and refined extensively, but it's a cool first draft. And just doing that made me realize I will do well with this piece. So I chill a bit on that. Especially when I know I can simply ping those magazine interns to go do the basic gathering of facts and figures. Nice!

So I go to bed tonight in Indiana feeling pretty good.

Now to find THE HOUSE!

Dateline: in the loft at Nona's, Terre Haute IN, 8 April 2005

Story caught by my partner Steff.

Here is the opening:

The return of democracy to the global agenda

More than elections, what matter are habits of the heart

 

SUBHASH AGRAWAL

Posted online: Saturday, April 09, 2005 at 0053 hours IST

 

Is there a democracy spring in the air? Whether forced, subsidised, organically discovered or artificially contrived, the world is seeing a widespread assertion of democracy, at least in rhetoric, if not actual deed. First, there was Afghanistan, soon followed by Ukraine, Iraq, Egypt, Palestine and Lebanon. And now, even Bhutan, with the tiny Himalayan kingdom all set for a historic swap between parliamentary democracy and monarchial power . . .

[then later in the piece]

Undoubtedly, American pressure and the resulting media attention are major triggers for the rather sudden pro-democracy shuffle. However, the real winds of change began just soon after the Iraq war. While we all noticed with bemusement—perhaps even some relish—the bitter rhetoric and very public spat between America and Europe as a result of the action in Iraq, what we perhaps missed was an emerging common thread shared deeply on both sides of the Atlantic. It is the simple yet powerful notion that the great fault lines in the world are not along religious or cultural lines, but between societies that have either embraced or shunned knowledge, openness and progress.

This has now emerged as a mainstream western view and has been captured and articulated in a number of post-9/11 modern books and essays by influential writers. These include Robert Cooper, author of The Breaking Of Nations: Order & Chaos in the 21st Century, and a former special advisor on foreign affairs to Tony Blair, and Thomas PM Barnett, author of The Pentagon’s New Map, and a professor at the Naval War College in Washington, DC. Barnett defines the tensions in the modern world as a gap between a functioning core of nations that are connected to the modern age and those disconnected from it.

Similarly, Cooper discusses the hypothetical progress of nations along a civilising path. And along an increasing scale of embrace of the world of knowledge, though he doesn’t quite call it that, from pre-modern to modern to post-modern. In essence, what these and other thinkers are advocating is a new moral order, based on the rule of law, democracy and accountability. And which should ideally shape behaviour within nations as much as relations between nations.

Full story found here

Interesting piece. Guess I'll have to read this Cooper fellow's book. Heard good things about it. Will simply have to break down and buy it next time I take Kevin to B&N for his Mad magazines.

Nice how the Naval War College gets to keep feeding off the book despite asking me to leave because of its success the day before Christmas!

Not that I'm bitter about that at all. It was a wonderful Christmas, as all Christmases are when your Dean demands your immediate resignation signature on a scrap of paper he's just penned while his hands shake in anger.

Hmmm. Really must talk to Mark about somehow getting that scene in Vol. II . . .

No. Nope. Moved beyond. Gotta be more Indian about it. Karma and all that. His past lives, not mine.

Anyway, Neil would be sure to cut that from the Preface if I made any mention . . . Hey, wait a minute!

No. As 41 used to say, "Nah gonnah do it!"

I feel myself elevating . . . or maybe that's just the scotch Granddad Carl poured me. . .

Dateline: in the loft at Nona's, Terre Haute IN, 8 April 2005

Steff again catches this one. What is it about women and search engines? My wife can find anything. Guess I just don't like asking anyone for directions. . .

This piece is interesting for its horizontal thinking. You get it right off the bat: why would Chinese and American admirals care about this bus service?

World > Terrorism & Security
posted April 8, 2005, updated 1:40 p.m.

Footsteps heard at sea

As Indians and Pakistanis cross Kashmir's 'peace bridge', US and Chinese admirals take note

By Jim Bencivenga | csmonitor.com

For the first time in decades Thursday, Kashmiris from India and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir took steps towards each other across a 220-foot-long bridge rebuilt in the last two weeks. The bridge, now called the Peace Bridge, was destroyed 50 years ago in a battle during the first of three wars fought between these rivals on the Asian subcontinent.

History will record that American and Chinese admirals took special note of those footsteps . . .

For military planners around the globe, the significance of any long-term easing of tensions between Pakistan and India lies in allowing India to shift a greater proportion of its defense budget to the pursuit of a more assertive maritime strategy, says Express India . . .

[then a bit about NYT story today on Chinese naval build-up (balanced, but nothing new)]

[then a string of quick entries on famous naval battles in history]

[then the piece ends on this:]

Which kind of navy India develops is still an open book, writes Thomas P.M. Barnett of the US Naval War College.

But clearly, for India to achieve a world-class navy, its leaders have to move beyond viewing the fleet as a supplemental tool in New Delhi's long-standing rivalries with its neighbors, toward an expansive security vision that takes into account the nation's global economic status as an emerging information-technology superpower

In the meantime, not only admirals will keep listening for footsteps on the Peace Bridge spanning Pakistani and Indian-controlled Kashmir.

Pretty cool how the piece links to an Indian website (Bharat Rakshak) where my old Proceedings piece that I wrote upon returning from the 2001 International Fleet Review (described in PNM at some length) in Mumbai (Bombay) India, where I was a guest of the Indian Navy and government. And where I gave what, in many ways, was one of the earliest versions of my current mega brief, Presentation to the Indian Navy - Feb 01.

Still the Naval War College benefits by association to me after driving me away!

I mean, nice reference, but the author needs to only Google me. Still, I wrote the piece when I was at the college, so . . .

Read the full CSM piece at http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0408/dailyUpdate.html

Between this and the Bombay piece, I'm feeling very Indian today.

Dateline: in the loft at Nona's, Terre Haute IN, 8 April 2005

I go to Indiana.

Remove the last "na" and it's just India.

Two stories appear in major newspapers 10 and 1/2 time zones apart (not kidding, look that one up!) and both are about India!

PNM is referenced in each!

Coincidence?

Or just the scrotch talking?

Dateline: in the loft at Nona's, Terre Haute IN, 8 April 2005

I meant scotch!

Bed time. Houses to peruse in the a.m.

Dateline: in the loft at Nona's, Terre Haute IN, 9 April 2005

Up early and leave with my mother-in-law to meet our local realtor and start hunting for houses south and to the west of Indianapolis. I get to drive Nona's A4 Audi, a beautiful piece of red muscle that's 9 years old and has only 31k on it. Almost two years since I stopped driving the Audi GT Coupe she gave us during our first-born's cancer back in the mid-90s. Had that car until I bought my Pilot in 03, and liked it plenty, but it was 16 years old when I was done driving it, and I pretty much swore off sticks because they don't go well with cell phones.

Still, I did okay with it. Almost 20 years of driving sticks means it's a skill you don't forget any more than how to ride a bike.

So we drive to Greenwood just south of Indy and meet Gloria our local agent. Ten hours later we call it a day, after going into only one house, which we found really bad. Today was mostly about driving around and ruling out cities, which pretty much took care of everything west and south of Indy, except maybe for Columbus.

We knew these areas were probably the weakest, so it was an avowed process of elimination, but still it made for a depressing day--if informative. Also spent about three hours in Indy itself ruling out the nice but tight neighborhoods in the Meridian district.

Tomorrow will be more serious for two reasons: 1) we'll search the north and west, with the north offering the best chances; and 2) we reached an agreement to sell our house in Portsmouth today. Our counteroffer ended up being stingier than we had first thought, because our realtor in RI slept on it and decided we shouldn't compromise much at all, given the offer only 3 days into the market. To our delight, the buyer took our entire counter-offer, so we have a few basic inspections to go through (nothing to worry about, because we have the house checked out all the time--I'm just that kind of owner) and waiting on these people to secure the mortgage (something we expect with ease given the cash they're putting on table). So now we're really incentivized to find a place we want in Indiana, cause come 15 July, we no longer have a house in RI.

Trio of interesting pieces in the Times today on China:

1) "North Korea Said to Reject China's Bid on Nuclear Talks," by Joel Brinkley, p. A10.

2) "Made in China. Bought Everywhere: As Trade Surplus Balloons, So Does Talk of Protectionism," by Keith Bradsher and David Barboza, p. B1.

3) "U.S. Plans Talks With China," by NYT, p. A10. (also a much bigger story on this in Friday's Post).

So Kim blows off China's latest diplomacy. So now the 5 powers are said to be in new talks among themselves about what they're willing to do to deal with Pyongyang. "Informal talks" about "new, more aggressive strategies that could be used if and when it is decided that the talks have reached a dead end."

Hmmm. Perhaps the time for some real ultimatums!

So China is important to us militarily, methinks.

But China's huge trade deficit with the world can't be allowed to continue without someday soon getting Beijing to let the yuan float (and stop being artificially pegged to the dollar).

So China is important to us economically, methinks.

Hmmmmm. Maybe we should be have regular high-level talks with the Chinese on all such matters.

And Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick is an excellent choice to lead those talks.

China suggested having the talks last year. Rice worked out the final details when she visited China last month.

Tell me this isn't shaping up to be our most important strategic relationship in the 21st century.

And then tell me how it's wrong to reduce China's entire rise to its growing navy.

Big picture of the Middle Kingdom means we see the naval buildup within the context of everything else, yes?

Dateline: Marriott Hotel, Falls Church VA, 12 April 2005

I am stationary once more.

Sunday was another marathon of house-perusing that ended badly, leading to another day in the trenches on Monday, seguing into SWA flight after SWA flight, subjecting others to interview and submitting myself, then finally to a full stop in this hotel room.

If we spent Saturday investigating the south and east of Indy (to include its northern urban slice), then Sunday was all north and west of Indy. It was getting more unfocused by the moment, reflecting a decision process that was ugly but necessary. Before deciding where we wanted to live in the Indy vicinity, I needed to rule out all the negatives, no's and over-my-dead-bodies. Frustrating as hell, and ending with the day's only house viewing that was a complete waste of time. Once back in Terre Haute, I took out my frustration with the agent by phone, in effect threatening to fire her in the same way that Vonne had threatened to fire me on the phone minutes earlier. I went to bed convinced I was heading home on my flight with no further effort.

I was wrong.

While my father-in-law drove me to the airport early on Monday, Vonne called me and asked where I was viewing today, signaling her strong desire that I go back to zero (or "6 o'clock" on the Indy clock, meaning due south). So I move back my flight to Providence, get ahold of Gloria, and we set up a number of viewings. In the end, I see only one house, which is fantastic on so many levels, and epitomizes the option to go rural in a big way. I am close to making an offer right on the spot, but a long talk with Vonne makes clear to me that: 1) when confronted with the reality of that option, Vonne may not actually reach for it, for a lot of good reasons connected with our kids; and 2) I was done for this trip and now that the decision has been made that we'll land somewhere south of Indy (to keep our goals of preferred Catholic grade and high schools), the decision-making now shifts to her on execution. Strategy man is done, execution specialist is teed up. Vonne goes in two weeks. Between now and then I finish the book and write the first big feature for Esquire, both of which are looking good.

I get home yesterday around 9pm, and spend a good 90 minutes getting the dump from my two oldest. Then I talk things out more with Vonne. All is resynched.

Up this morning to deliver the kids to school, make a Home Depot run, then off to airport to fly back to BWI on SWA. Rental to DC to do interview with retired Army flag for Esquire. With my new timeline construct, the interview is much more focused and I feel awfully good about it afterwards.

Evening is a long meal with three senior writers/editors with various Pentagon industry newspapers, at their invitation. Great restaurant (Galileo) and a long, fun interaction, where I actually catch myself starting a sentence with, "As a journalist . . ."

Would go on longer, but have to get up and deliver speech to Navy audience at 0800, a talk set up by my speaking agency.

Here's my accumulated stories over last few days.

-->"Chinese Navy Buildup Gives Pentagon New Worries: Japan and Taiwan share concerns over Beijing's military modernization plan," by Jim Yardly and Thom Shanker, NYT, 8 April 05, p. A3.

-->"China Builds a Smaller, Stronger Military: Modernization Could Alter Regional Balance of Power, Raising Stakes for U.S.," by Edward Cody, WP, 12 April 05, p. A1.

-->"Crouching Tiger, Swimming Dragon: Will China play nice in the Persian Gulf?" op-ed by Nayan Chanda, NYT, 11 April 05, p. A23.

-->"Search for New Crude Turns Perilous: U.S. Strategic and Diplomatic Thinking Adjusts to Handle Hot Spots With Oil Potential," by John J. Fialka, WSJ, 11 April 05, p. A4.

-->"Beijing Is Striving To Cool Hostility Toward Japanese," by Jason Dean et. al, WSJ, 12 April 05, p. A18.

-->"U.S., China Agree To Regular Talks: Senior-Level Meetings to Focus on Politics, Security, Possibly Economics," by Glenn Kessler, WP, 8 April 05, p. A14.

China builds a military that's clearly designed to counter our ability to do whatever we damn well please in Asia. Hard to believe, isn't it? Doesn't being the world's Leviathan mean we get to have everyone unable to stand up to us no matter what we do or where we do it? No, it just means it's impossible to wage war successfully unless the U.S. agrees to that proposition. That's real power all right, it's just not unlimited with regard to our own desires. Being Leviathan doesn't mean you're God, just that you can prevent anyone else from assuming that role on anything significant.

When someone gets to the point of accumulating power that calls into question your ability on some specific issue, then you have to start viewing both the rising power and the issue in question differently. We are not doing this yet. We see only the danger, not the possibility. We ask, Will China "behave" in the Gulf? Hopefully not like America does! One Big Banger in the region is enough, I would say.

China's just waking up to a world in which the Core relies on the unstable regions of the Gap for its short-term economic security via energy. You can change that dependency if you want, but it will take some time. Other route is to work the issue with military, but that's takes a military, now doesn't it? We've got one, so we work it. China doesn't, so it's getting one. Sound odd to you? Sounds pretty "real" to me.

But hey, at least we're talking regularly in the future . . . on politics (all theirs, of course), on security (all ours, of course) and even . . . on economics! Man, do you think they're all connected somehow?

Normally, I would say State would find a way to screw up such a conversation (not that it should go to Defense, cause there's still too many Neocons there able to screw it up worse-though the load lightens with time), but I am glad to hear Robert Zoellick is running that show for now. He sees connectivity in all forms. Smart guy, good post for him, right time to start this conversation.

Good luck Mr. Zoellick!

-->"India and China Are Poised to Share a Defining Moment: As trade grows, onetime rivals may hold lessons for other developing nations," by Somini Sengupta and Howard W. French, NYT, 10 April 05, p. A6.

-->"India and China Agree to Resolve Decades of Border Disputes," by Somini Sengupta, NYT, 12 April 05, p. A8.

-->"China and India Declare Era of Cooperation: At Summit, Leaders Agree To Work on Border Disputes, Clear Path to Boost Trade," by John Larkin, WSJ, 12 April 05, p. A18.

-->"India, China Hoping to 'Reshape the World Order' Together: Once-Hostile Giants Sign Accords on Border Talks, Economic Ties, Trade and Technology," by John Lancaster, 12 April 05, p. A16.

China and India waking up to their own sense of collective power is a big theme for my in-process book, Blueprint for Action, and we're seeing it on display big time in PM Wen Jiabao's historic trip to India. The two countries already realize their collective buying power on energy, and Wen openly spoke of their collective brainpower on IT.

I know, I know, border disputes and all will keep certain countries at each other's throats forever . . . until the economic connectivity overwhelms, like it's doing right now with these two. Then, decades and centuries of this-and-that disappear like so much water off a duck's back.

America's waking up to the reality of both countries' "rise," seeking out the right venues of cooperation with India on military and finally moving on commensurate sort of summiteering with China, which frankly should occur at the presidential level, not the #2 at State. But we have a long way to go. These two countries will represent the two most important relationships we have in the coming decades, and what will be hardest for us to take in all of this is understanding how much more they are like us and we are like them than we are like many other states we have long called our best allies.

India and China are ahead of us in all this understanding-at least among themselves. We need to catch up and catch up fast. BFA aims to trigger such a catch-up-big time. China and India and the New Core in general will "reshape the world order" in coming decades. We need to decide how much we want to be part of that process.

-->"Insider Chides Kremlin Over Policies: Government Adviser Warns Of Venezuela-Style Trouble Amid Dismantling of Yukos," by Gregory L. White, WSJ, 8 April 05, p. A11.

-->"Russian Banks Prove Tempting: Sale of Tiny KMB Underscores Interest in Country's Growth Story," by Guy Chazan, WSJ, 5 April 05, p. C14.

-->"Putin Rallies Youth Support: Kremlin Applies Lesson From Toppled Neighboring Governments," by Alan Cullison, WSJ, 12 April 05, p. A18.

-->"BP Russia Venture Faces More Taxes: Bill for $790 Million Comes After a Pledge by Putin To Rein In Revenue Officials," by Gregory L. White and Guy Chazan, WSJ, 12 April 05, p. A3.

Even political insiders are having trouble holding their tongues on where Russia is going under Putin. Andrei Illarionov has a big mouth to match his big mind, and he sees Russia heading toward Venezuela instead of the EU, and he's worried Putin hasn't a clue about how he's ruining business trust.

It's not totally gone; any place where foreign firms are willing to buy up local banks still holds plenty of promise. But Putin's looking desperate and scared: he knows how to hold onto to power but not much else. Being KGB-trained, he trusts power and distrusts businessmen, but in the end, Putin needs to go and the businessmen need to run things a whole lot more. If you can't trust the capitalists, there's no capital to speak of, because capital is mostly about trust.

So Putin reaches for the young, in a defensive move to stop any orange-ish revolution from occurring in Russia, like it did in Ukraine. But that's trying to prevent a bad future, not build a good one. Putin's appealing to fear, not hope. He's got to come to the same conclusion Gorbachev and Yeltsin did: the system will survive without me. The reason why so many in Russia give Putin a pass is because it's hard for Russians to think a system can survive without strong leadership. They simply don't trust themselves, and that's the real trust that drives capitalism-a faith in people over leadership. It's what defines any great capitalist culture, including ours. It allows a public to basically go about their business with little fear or delusion that leaders run much of anything-even here. That's a huge leap for Russia, but it's coming generation by generation. Putin is a lesser Yeltsin, who was a lesser Gorby and so on. Each version gets paler, while each generation of Russians grows more confident.

Meanwhile, foreign firms like BP need to stand up to the "tax terrorism" and make it clear to Putin, this will kill connectivity and he'll pay for that loss in the end.

-->"India Senses Patent Appeal: Local Companies Envision Benefits in Stronger Protections," by Eric Bellman, WSJ, 11 April 05, p. A20.

This story was so easy to predict: before you join the Core you're all, "patents are to protect the rich and rip off the poor," and after you join the global economy in a big way and become interdependent with other advanced economies, then it's all "patents are only fair and where's my lawyer?"

Articles on China have been appearing for a while on this subject, so now here comes the same ones about India.

That's getting to be a pattern: see the "inconceivable" article on China one week ("Commies seek patent protection!"), and look for its repeat on India the next.

-->"Democracy Drive By America Meets Reality in Egypt: U.S. Funds Mideast Activists, But in Cairo, Strong Ties To Regime Limit the Effort," by Neil King Jr., WSJ, 11 April 05, p. A1.

Tricky business, spreading democracy. You can issue the grants, but if receiving one marks you as a "traitor," then the money isn't exactly the issue, now is it? It always amazes me how the U.S. thinks it can blithely send money to influence other countries' elections, but when anyone tries even the slightest sort of influence in our elections, it's considered prettin' near a political invasion! Remember when the Chinese got caught trying to influence some Congressional elections with money? Can you imagine something like that? People trying to buy a Congressional election in the U.S.? Well, it was a big to-do, with lots of accusations and strong talk about teaching those Chinese a lesson.

Moreover, whenever any other great power tries to influence a local election, something we do with fundamentally no self-awareness, much less self-doubt (watch us try to torpedo Daniel Ortega's run for the presidency in Nicaragua), we get all bent out of shape and start talking such-and-such-country's rising "imperialism" and whatnot. I mean, how can you give Mubarek billions year and year without any questions and then start funding opposition parties and not seem hypocritical on that basis alone, much less our usual pot-calling-the-kettle-black shtick.

Don't get me wrong, I like seeing us spend our money this way, I just wish we wouldn't act so naïve when others do the same darn thing-including to us.

Easy to pull off? No. But let's stand for what we stand for-democracy. And let's not pretend we don't live in a highly interconnected world where we're not the only great power which desires to do these things or where others don't naturally seek to influence our own elections and politics.

-->"A Daunting Search: Tracking a Deadly Virus in Angola: Children are dying. Beyond that, facts are hard to come by," by Sharon LaFraniere and Denise Grady, NYT, 12 April 05, p. A3.

So much focus on Avian Flu as the next possible great source of a pandemic, we tend to forget that a real pandemic needs a strange mix of disconnectedness and connectedness to unfold. A certain amount of disconnectedness is required at first to let the spread of the disease to take root without the system mounting a vigorous response, and Africa is the perfect place for that to occur, as the Core's pain threshold on that deep interior of the Gap is amply displayed time and time again on a host of issues and conflicts.

But once it takes roots, then you need just enough connectedness, and international air travel is just about perfect in that regard, for the disease to spread in a chaotic but path-dependent sort of way.

It bears watching in a way that Avian Flu does not, because SE Asia is connected enough to the world economically that a certain global response is guaranteed, if only by the locals' fear of losing business with the world. You don't get that sense with Angola, and that's when the fear creeps in.

Dateline: SWA flight from BWI to PVD, 14 April 2005

Long but energizing couple of days. Didn't check in last night because last night the only motel Esquire could get me was a "Quality" Inn where the bed broke when I sat on it and there wasn't any Internet.

On Wednesday spoke before 250 Navy Senior Executive Service officials in the morning, going about 50 minutes on the brief starting at 0800 in a hotel ballroom in Falls Church, plus doing 20 Q&A. Then another hour with a handful that just wouldn't let go without further information. Then an hour or so back in my hotel room working endnotes on BFA before checking out.

Then I drove to Pentagon City, did a bit o' shopping (DVDs for kids: anime movie for Em and "Dirty Dozen" and "Great Escape" for me and WWII-obsessed Kevin). Then more endnotes, then a lengthy taped interview with a very personable independent segment producer for network news programs that may lead to something down the road. Then drinks with partner Steff Hedenkemp and New Rule Sets Project angel advisor Kevin Billings at a cool DC restaurant. Then the drive to Quantico for an early interview today at the Marine base.

Then the drive back to DC, more endnotes work at the Pentagon City Mall, then two interviews in the Pentagon (Navy 4 star who prepped on me personally by reading my blog—sly sea dog he; plus a senior civilian whose analytic skills regarding bureaucracies were matched only by his incredibly vibrant storytelling skills). I have stopped worrying about having too little for this story and now wonder how I'm ever going to get it all in one article!

Also learned something today: you can learn to give a good interview by watching adept interviewees perform. Before today, I wouldn't have said that, but all three of these guys (Marine general, Navy admiral and senior civilian) were downright masterly. You couldn't walk away from the day not being impressed at the quality of senior people in the Defense Department. But then I always am (not uniformly, mind you—and no, no pun there), and that admiration doesn't change with parties or administrations.

Then to BWI and home. Good to see my love and the offspring.

Dateline: Cracker Barrel, Dumfries VA, 13 April 2005

Grabbing a nice meal after a long day (see below) at a favorite restaurant (yes, I do indulge in nostalgia). Would have popped this in on the day I wrote it, but I had the misfortune of staying at a "Quality" Inn tonight, so no Internet.

I just wanted to take a moment and remind both you and me of the upcoming wargame (The New Map Game) my firm (The New Rule Sets Project LLC) will be putting on in Newport at the end of May (31 May-2 June) with our partners in this effort, Alidade Incorporated and Alphachimp.

I was approached by Alidade's CEO, a retired naval officer named Jeff Cares, near the end of last year with the proposition, Would I be interested in putting on a wargame with players from the defense community and international business looking at how the Core-Gap model of The Pentagon's New Map might play out in coming years? Naturally I was simultaneously intrigued and quite delighted by the prospect.

Cares' firm is full of really smart people who've essentially re-imagined wargaming from its historic military focus on just positing crisis and resolution to a war-within-the-context-of-everything-else mindset that's equally at ease exploring unexpected successes as well as traditionally expected failures. They've elevated the concept beyond just free-play to co-evolution, meaning their players don't just act, they're expected to learn within the game process and generate most of their best challenges and opportunities in terms of growth and not just move-following-move dynamics. You may start a game that feels like checkers, but end up with something that's more like soccer not because the Control has re-jiggered the rules between moves, but because the teams playing simply moved on in their learning curve. Point being, you're not just supposed to stay in character, your character is expected to develop along with the plotline.

To me, this approach is essential for generating a game of the sort made possible by PNM's vision: not just gaming bad events within a Global War on Terrorism, but frankly, gaming the GWOT as just a subset of a much larger process you can call globalization but I like to call "shrinking the Gap." In other words, let's not just game how this thing (GWOT) continues, let's game how we win the whole shebang, or exploring what the pathway would look and feel like that involved making globalization truly global, which isn't just about killing bad guys but re-imagining who can be the good guys. Remember: to shrink the Gap is to grow the Core—by definition.

And that's what we're really looking at in The New Map Game: gaming the successes that need to occur, not just testing the failures we can already imagine. Contingency planning is about running failures to ground, but serious strategic planning is about exploiting successes for all they're worth. To shrink the Gap may well involve dealing with plenty of contingencies, but the pathway to success will be defined by seeing opportunities for Core expansion where they lie, banking them historically along the way.

I think this game will be quite amazing, and if you're interested, I encourage you to enroll soon, while the "early bird" special lasts (next Monday). To me, this is the closest thing yet to recreating the type of "economic security exercises" I led atop World Trade Center One with Cantor Fitzgerald in the original Naval War College research project I dubbed "The New Rule Sets Project." I chose to name my consultancy similarly, because I feel deeply that the military-market nexus we explored in those historic workshops wasn't just an interesting sidelight to the perceived "big issues" of international security—they simply defined them far more than any of us realized in our stovepiped mindsets. I think we have an opportunity here to make similar discoveries, similar co-evolutions in business and security outlooks that will not only inform how we wage a Global War on Terrorism, but actually determine the nature of that struggle's long-term success.

Some details on the game. The four player countries (you'd be assigned to one for the duration) are the United States (Old Core), China (New Core), Brazil (Seam State), and Iran (Gap). Tell me you're not intrigued already by that quartet! China-US-Iran is one triangle we're just beginning to understand (we tend to assume we drive this dynamic, when actually we're in third place on that one), and frankly, the China-US-Brazil one is going to be even more interesting and seminal for how the Core holds together in coming years.

The game will use the "four flows" concept from PNM (people, money, security, energy) to animate the moves and moves-within-moves (i.e., the usual diplomatic actions and strategic investments) that Alidade typically employs in their innovate approach to gaming.

As Alidade puts it, they're looking at the game as a chance to explore my theories in an interactive forum with a diverse group of people whose take on PNM's validity will match their disparate backgrounds, meaning the more skeptical the merrier. Across the entire events, we're planning five "turns," or moves representing two years of “real-time,” so the game will last a decade (2006-2016). Why so stretched out? Rome wasn't built in a day, and shrinking the Gap will be similarly long term in nature. If you want to explore grand strategy, then expect to cover a lot of future "historical" ground, not just the summer of 2005.

Again, "early bird" registration will end next Monday, April 18th, so get moving if you want to save the bucks. Plus, there's the simple reality that there's only so many slots, so when the rush kicks in, you don't want to be shut out just as everyone starts realizing that three days at the Hyatt Regency in Newport after Memorial Day ain't exactly hardship duty. Hell, I'm excited just to be on the hook for two briefs, the first of which will be the usual PNM show but the second of which will start exploring Blueprint for Action's big themes, and I'm psyched about getting some of that in PowerPoint.

As for the quality of the people you'll interact with (besides your humble narrator), try these on for size:

* Assoc. Lab Dir., Nat'l Security Directorate, UT-Battelle/Oak Ridge Nat'l Lab

* Analyst, Center for Army Analysis

* Chief, Future Warfare Studies, US Army Training and Doctrine Command

* Vice President, American Systems Corporation

* Exec. Dir., Center For Strategic Leadership Development, ICAF, NDU

* Professor, Department of Warfighting, Air War College

* Director, Advanced Concepts, Lockheed Martin Corporation

* Principal, GLS Consulting, Inc.

* Program Exec., DoD Counter-Narcoterrorism Technology Program Office.

Beyond that kind of quality player, we'll have participants from top-notch private-sector firms like Boeing, Raytheon, and The Rendon Group. These are premier organizations, making the networking opportunities significant in and of themselves.

I hope to see as many of my consistent blog readers at this event as possible. While the email exchanges over the months have been great, getting this type of face-to-face interaction can't be beat, as I've learned in these wargames in the past. Knowing how much these exercises have charged my intellectual battery over the years, plus built some of the best professional relationships I currently enjoy (and yeah, the competition in these things bonds one helluva lot better than the usual panel presentations!), I strongly encourage you to take advantage of this opportunity.

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 16 April 2005

Yesterday a recovery day after all that travel, plus big prep for home inspection by buyers. Tomorrow we show for last time to secure back-up offer (full price) from second couple. Then we chill and focus on buying new house south of Indy.

Yesterday Neil Nyren at Putnam bugged me for Dedication and Acknowledgments. Did the former to wife and kids and latter to a much smaller crew than last time (mere 600 words). Fired both off to Neil. Also bargained a repeat of two globes map for second book, probably up front behind glossary. Other than that, no pix in the book, which I'm fine with.

Today was Chapter 5 all day: writing intro (my last writing in book--yeah!), plus about three dozen call-outs in the text, some requiring some serious research. Tomorrow I will finish final edit on Conclusion (last piece oustanding) and then prep Chapter 5 and Conclusion for possible end notes (grabbing sentences, shrinking them with ellipses and adding them to the End Notes file). We show around noon. Then I spend rest of day organizing endnote sources and lining them up, inputting them by chapter. Shooting for midnight Tuesday or earlier.

Facing three big interviews this week for Esquire piece, all hopefully on Wed. in Pentagon. Then Vonne leaves for Indy on Thursday and I watch four kids while trying to organize and write the piece. I should have all my hair pulled out by Saturday.

May has got to be easier than this.

Off to fabled bowl of cereal and some old newspapers while catching last half hour of SNL with eldest.

Dateline: Grand Hyatt Washington DC, 18 April 2005

Waiting on my cobb salad from room service. Just picked up a cool digital voice recorder that's Mac compatible (I will not go through another interview worrying about flipping those damn tiny cassettes!)

About 120 endnotes into my task, and about 330 to go.

Chapter 5 and Conclusion wrapped up yesterday with Mark, who starts shipping the stuff to Neil Nyren at Putnam tomorrow. I will have the endnotes to him . . . sometime this week.

I have been a pretty crappy dad and husband the last few weeks, and today didn't make it any better. Spent all day yesterday in the basement working the notes cause the room above the garage is too hot and I'm not ready to stick in the ACs yet (we showed one last time on Sunday, hopefully to secure a back-up offer). So I hung out with son Kevin who killed more enemy WWII soldiers than I can remember. Why bother watching "Bridge on the River Kwai" when you can act the whole damn thing out?

Was set to do the same in basement today, but around noon I started getting nervous. Have three more big interviews to wrap this piece up and only one of them is set (45 minutes on Wed). Thursday wife Vonne flies to Indy, so this deal has to go down in next 48 hours on other two, and one of them is the focus of piece.

So . . . to make it easier for my hosts, I fly down on SWA tonight and check into hotel, where I will live on room service and work the notes like a madman, waiting for the call. Hotel is hooked into metro at Metro Center, so I am about 20 minutes from where I need to be, whenever it is I need to be there.

I am going to have to be very nice to my kids next weekend. I foresee spending a lot of money and saying "yes" a lot, and carrying Vonne Mei the entire time on my hip.

Here's hoping it all goes down in next 48, I get my ass home ASAP, and Vonne finds home of her dreams on Saturday.

Dateline: Grand Hyatt Washington DC, 19 April 2005

I don't what it is about sad, sappy 70's love songs and me lately. Don't hate me for my childhood.

Up and working on the notes, waiting for the call. Check my email and see the following story from Post:

Japanese Official's Trip to China Fails to Break Political Deadlock

By Edward Cody

Washington Post Foreign Service

Tuesday, April 19, 2005; Page A10

BEIJING, April 18 -- A two-day fence-mending visit by the Japanese foreign minister ended Monday with no sign China and Japan are prepared to back away from the political and territorial disputes that have pushed their relations to a postwar low.

"I don't know the reason why we would have to change our policies with regard to China," said Hatsuhisa Takashima, a spokesman for Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura.

The unyielding positions of both countries appear sharpened by a sense of strategic rivalry as China's power expands across Asia and Japan redefines its regional military role in close cooperation with the United States. In the newly adversarial atmosphere, China has opposed Japan's bid to become a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, saying it is unfit for such leadership until it faces its past.

"Since the normalization of relations in 1972, this is the most difficult of the difficult, the most serious difficulty," said China's deputy foreign minister, Wu Dawei. "And it has lasted a relatively long time."

Watching the China-Japan tussle work itself out is really interesting. Everyone knows the outcome: China will get big, Japan will align its stars increasingly with Beijing in the region, and the US will have to go along with that. But everyone is working against that outcome now in an almost knee-jerk fashion: US thinks it's going to contain China (sucking up to India, which knows better, and pulling Japan on security issues with China like Taiwan), Japan thinks it'll use US to balance Beijing (as if it isn't already so deeply in bed with China economically to render that option fairly moot--as is the US, BTW), and China thinks it's going to single-handedly adjust it's tone with Japan without triggering a backlash (knowing full well how well Tokyo deals with such ultimatums).

Here's what Japan and the US need to remember: China and India realize their collective heft, and so do most in the Middle East, Russia and the EU--not to mention the rest of Asia (ASEAN, Australia, New Zealand). We need to be looking downstream to solutions, not dicking around with the pressure points of today. The US should be pushing Japan on its WWII history-rewriting. This stuff is really cheesy and offensive and should be stopped (what good is it?). If Japan wants to be taken seriously like Germany is, it has to put that crap aside finally, and waiting for similar maturity from China on its own recent history is stupid. That's like my ten-year-old comparing his behavior to my five-year-old: China's just not that grown up yet and Japan can't wait on that process if it wants to get (UNSC permanent seat, etc) what it wants to get NOW.

If the US is not taking a big, in-everyone's-face role on this, then Rice is asleep at the wheel, and if anyone in the Pentagon or White House thinks this war of words is in our long-term interests, they should have their heads examined. I have heard nothing from the US in the press on any of this, and that's not right. We're missing in action on this and there's no good reason for it. What we do today we don't have to catch up on tomorrow. Name calling is fine and fun for a while, but what's emerging right now between China and Japan is just plain wrong.

Full article found here

Dateline: Grand Hyatt Washington DC, 19 April 2005

Another Post story of note:

Military Jet Faces A Fight to Fit In
Changing Defense Needs Likely to Limit F/A-22 Raptor Production

By Renae Merle

Washington Post Staff Writer

Tuesday, April 19, 2005; Page E01

LANGLEY AIR FORCE BASE, Va. -- Thirty minutes after punching through the clouds over the Chesapeake Bay, Lt. Col. James Hecker reared up the nose of his F/A-22 Raptor fighter jet, like a snake preparing to strike, and skidded across the sky. The novel move gives the Raptor an advantage in the close-in dogfights the Air Force wants to avoid.

"We prefer shooting and killing them before they know we're there, but that [maneuver] works too," said Hecker, also known as "Scorch," the commander of Langley's 27th Fighter Squadron, after the recent training flight.

The Raptor is a fighter pilot's dream. It is nearly impossible to detect by radar and its cruising speed is more than 1,000 miles an hour, twice that of most potential rivals. Most fighters have sensors to spot the planes in front of them. The cockpit of the Raptor is reminiscent of a video game, taking a 360-degree picture and splashing it on an eight-inch screen while an onboard computer helps the pilot decide what to strike first.

"It's like having a God's-eye view of what's out there," Hecker said. "There is not a pilot who has flown the Raptor that isn't in love."

The question facing the Pentagon and Congress is whether the Raptor's superior abilities, and the affection of pilots and Air Force leaders, is enough to justify a more than $70 billion investment at the same time the military is stretched thin by ground wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Critics contend that the Air Force, long dominated by fighter pilots, is exaggerating the threat it faces from enemy fighters at a time when warfare has changed and low-tech weapons such as shoulder-fired missiles are a greater threat. The service, they say, should be deploying more unmanned aircraft and replacing an aging bomber fleet.

There is no question it's a great jet, and that we need some to maintain the Leviathan, but we'll never buy the numbers the Air Force wants, and we'll not buy those numbers in order to grow the SysAdmin force.

You will read a lot of these articles in coming months and years.

Full article found here

Dateline: Grand Hyatt Washington DC, 19 April 2005

Ratzinger, John Paul II's enforcer, basically pulled off an insider succession. This is such a bad thing for the Catholic Church, I am almost speechless.

What an amazingly bad pick. Ratzinger is the Chernenko coming on the heels of enfeebled Brezhnev. Complete step backward that history will blame on John Paul II and his sorry management of church in 1990s and 2000s until his death. The regent assumes the throne.

Until a real New Core or Gap pope succeeds Ratzinger (he should just go with Pope Ratzinger I), the papacy will declline in global relevancy to an amazing degree. I blame JP II for this outcome. That man's intransigence will end up costing us plenty, and him most of his legacy.

Dateline: Grand Hyatt Washington DC, 20 April 2005

Remember yesterday when I spoke of the inevitable slew of articles (all relating to the reality of the FY06 defense budget and looming release of Quadrennial Defense Review that explains it and those to come in terms of Pentagon's acquisition priorities), well NYT ran one on the Navy to go with the WP's on the F-22 and the Air Force.

The trainwreck on ship construction is finally arriving, after we've been told about it for about 15 years in the defense community. Why arrive now? Because the definition of the future of war favored by the Pentagon is changing (QDR) from a focus on the big one to realizing that failed states (those lesser includeds of yesterday) are not just the bulk of the workload (they have been for a very long time) but the new competing force-sizing standard thanks to the operational realities displayed by our long-running efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

That world can't afford having the U.S. buy carrriers that cost 12$B or subs in the 2-3$B range. We need the many and cheap, and so the few and the absurdly expensive will drop in buy numbers and get--no doubt--even more absurdly expensive. We will buy some, but far fewer than imagined just a few years--or even months--ago.

This is the big tipping point being reached on transformation.

Navy of Tomorrow, Mired in Yesterday's Politics
By TIM WEINER
New York Times
April 19, 2005

The Navy's new destroyer, the DD(X), is becoming so expensive that it may end up destroying itself. The Navy once wanted 24 of them. Now it thinks it can afford 5 - if that.

The price of the Navy's new ships, driven upward by old-school politics and the rusty machinery of American shipbuilding, may scuttle the Pentagon's plans for a 21st-century armada of high-technology aircraft carriers, destroyers and submarines.

Shipbuilding costs "have spiraled out of control," the Navy's top admiral, Vern Clark, told Congress last week, rising so high that "we can't build the Navy that we believe that we need in the 21st century."

The first two DD(X)'s are now supposed to total $6.3 billion, according to confidential budget documents, up $1.5 billion. A new aircraft carrier, the CVN-21, is estimated at $13.7 billion, up $2 billion. The new Virginia-class submarine now costs $2.5 billion each, up $400 million. All these increases have materialized in the last six months.

Here's the full article: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/19/business/19navy.html?th&emc=th

Dateline: Grand Hyatt Washington DC, 20 April 2005

Iran is not trying to shut itself out from the world. It can't afford to. India, China and the rest of developing Asia can't afford to bypass all that oil and gas. This is a match made in heaven, despite our concerns on WMD in Iran. We can either use that economic connectivity to our advantage or try to squash it, which will fail as a strategy. But Iran's not stupid. They know what their leverage is and they know the global marketplace favors them for some great length of time. If the US wants a transformed Middle East, we need to find a way to bring Iran into the fold somehow, taking into account their security desires straight up and not pretending that economic sanctions or carrots will seal any deal with the mullahs, even as economic connectivity woould strengthen the reformists in the government.

Here's the piece's first paras:

Facing Sanctions, Iran Uses Oil to Seek Allies
By JAD MOUAWAD
New York Times
April 19, 2005

TEHRAN, Iran - As it faces the threat of global sanctions from the United States and Europe because of suspicions that it is turning its nuclear program to weapons production, Iran is fighting back with a powerful weapon of its own: its vast oil and gas resources.

Iran's ruling clerics are meticulously arranging energy sales and building partnerships with influential countries, including China and India, as a way to win stronger friendships around the world.

Here's the entire article: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/19/business/worldbusiness/19tehran.html?th&emc=th

Dateline: Grand Hyatt Washington DC, 20 April 2005

Our production effort on the first subscription-only version of the e-journal has fallen apart due to a scheduling crunch for our editor. Events beyond Bob Jacobson's control have set the timing of the journal back so much that it forced us to think about what we had really gotten ourselves into by setting this whole thing up.

That reality, plus the emerging load of stories I am doing or plan to do with Esquire, plus the growth in consulting relationships between myself and a number of outside organizations, has pushed me to reconsider this whole operation and decide to abort it before the subscriptions kick in with this first paying issue.

What does that mean?

First, it means I send a check for a bunch of money to my business manager to cover her (Steff Hedenkemp) sending a refund check to everyone who signed up for the journal. You should all have those checks before the end of the month. If you haven't paid, don't bother.

Second, it means we go back to the original concept of the newsletter. It's free. It's a compilation of "greatest hits" blogs from the past, grouped by content by my webmaster Critt Jarvis. It also includes my email exchanges with readers. If people want to send in their own short pieces for consideration, we'll consider them and perhaps publish, so long as they fit and reference the vision of PNM and BFA (otherwise, get your own blog!). I will try to write original stuff for the newsletter, but won't promise to always do so (although we have one lined up for the April newsletter issue which we hope to have out by the end of the month (my webmaster Critt is in charge of that, so send your cards and letters to him)).

I am very happy with this decision. While ginning up the first two issues was a neat exercise and I thought my partners did a nice job, it was just too much effort given all the offers and opportunities we're trying to manage at the same time. This way it's free and easy and we keep it eminently simple.

As part of that simplification process, partner Bob Jacobson departs from the New Rule Sets Project team following our effort with Alidade and Alphachimp on the New Map Game in Newport at the beginning of June. The focus of the consultancy is going to get quite exact: if the relationship in question doesn't involve me directly, we don't do it.

When we originally set up New Rule Sets Project, we had some dreams of making it a fully functioning partnership of several consultants, in effect replicating my vision through others. I thought, and still think, this is a viable path. I'm just not willing to pursue it right now, given all that's transitioning in my life with the books, leaving the War College, setting up my own stuff, moving to the Midwest, writing for Esquire, giving plenty of talks through my speaking agency, etc. Trying to build the NRSP empire beyond me as the principal is just a bridge too far right now, and frankly, it may always be given the range of opportunities and my desire to keep the infrastructure as lean and simple as possible.

So, in effect, I no longer market Barnett Consulting as my one-man shop and market NRSP as my one-man shop, with business manager Steff Hedenkemp to negotiate all and keep my trains running on time, and webmaster Critt to do whatever the hell it is that he does (and make the newsletter happen). This way, I don't pick up ambitions I can't meet, I don't lose track of events, and I dial down the shturm und drang of empire-building to a level where my kids and wife seem a whole lot happier than they've been in the past few weeks.

I want to keep my work life very focused, in part so I can jump on big opportunities as they arise, and in part because I want to keep my home life as focused as possible. I am unwilling to burn my village to save the world, and I am always congnizant of my wife's point that I sometimes act like I owe strangers more than my kids--or her. When I'm old and hoping someone will help me off my death bed to do this or that, no one's going to be there except my immediate family, just like I helped my Dad shave for the last time in his life. My Dad died a very rich man, with his loving wife and several of his kids at his side. That is the only end point I seek, and I will structure my other life and all that it entails to make sure it happens. Because when you lie on your death bed, no one ever says, "I wish I made more money," or "I wish I held more important jobs with bigger titles." No, they ask for loved ones, and if the life they've led denies them that outcome, not much else matters on your way out the door. I try not to forget that.

Perhaps a bit much to explain why the e-Journal is late, but that's thomaspmbarnett.com-within-the-context-of-everything-else. You want to be a strategic thinker? That's what it's all about then. Never losing the big picture.

Dateline: Grand Hyatt Washington DC, 20 April 2005

Got through about 100 endnotes yesterday, meaning I am through Chapter 3 now and looking at just over 200 more for 4, 5, Conclusion and Afterward.

My long-set interview today with a senior military official was cancelled at the last minute. No surprise there. I didn't actually want to interview the guy, because he's famous for having nothing interesting to say. It just clears up my sked for the real purpose of this entire trip. This thing, I am assured by parties with some genuine control, goes down today. I am ready. I have my questions and my digital and my tape and my suit. I decamp here at noon and go to Pentagon City mall to keep working and keep waiting.

Wish me luck.

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 21 April 2005

Yesterday, around 11am, as I was gearing up for trip to interview the Man, I get call, saying it's pushed off and I can meet the Alter Ego instead today, with promises of the Man tomorrow.

I meet and interview the Alter Ego, and he's very good, so that's cool. Plus I get to work the digital recorder (stereo capture) and it's fantastic. Download to Mac and send in chunks to Esquire overnight by email.

Meanwhile, plugging on notes til 2 am this morning.

Up at 0800 and back on notes til noon. Then, as scheduled, head to The Building and it goes down as promised. Biggest damn office I've ever seen--about the layout of my house's first floor, and we've got a LOT of room. Great interview. Going to be great piece. Will write it early next week.

This weekend: remembering my kids' names.

Oh, and notes now under 60 to go, with about . . . I dunno, mabye 350-400 done. Total volume over 20k words. Think it will weigh in just under 25k.

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 22 April 2005

Let me see . . . Emily, now a teenager . . . Kevin, bit of a Nintendo freak . . . Jerry . . . man can he talk all of a sudden . . . Vonne Mei, getting more beautiful by the minute as that black hair comes in (though we worry on the speech).

Everyone up. Everyone needs to be fed, including pets. Out the door in time for Kev's physical. Take paperback for family doc (just got the box from Putnam--nice).

On way out door I jump into conference call on my cell, putting my kids in the car with Scooby Doo DVD and having them use the headphones. Long talk with Alidade and Alphachimp and my people in NRSP about THE NEW MAP GAME. Attendance looking okay for now, expecting the bulk to register in next 2-3 weeks. But here's something that catches my eye: we already have an embedded reporter of some serious national stature. Hope he can actually make it. Then I hear we have offer from national TV news show to have me on after the game to talk about it. That's pretty stunning since we haven't even sent out a press release. Oh, and a corporate sponsor is steppng up, which is way cool and very validating.

Now I am getting psyched.

Then to Game Stop to trade in about 30 old Gameboy and Nintendo games. Kev's guessing $200+ in credit. I just laugh.

Kev is off by about 20$. I am stunned. We have $225 in credit.

We buy a whole bunch of new ones.

Then I get calls that ADT went off--that damn side door I let Bailey out of in the morning. Either you dead bolt it or the wind can push it slightly ajar.

So we had Portsmouth's finest checking the place out while we were gone.

On way home I pick up the usual stuff to start putting in window AC units (I am waaaaaay behind). That and some other stuff kills the afternoon.

Thank God Vonne already made the spaghetti sauce and even cooked the spag.

We'll watch DVDs tonight and I'll try to get the notes under 40. I want to turn them into Putnam on Monday. Then Mon-Wed I wail on the Esquire piece. Almost all the transcripts are in.

God! Did I forget to ask boxers or briefs?

I hear glass breaking in the kitchen. Better go.

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 23 April 2005

Vonne on the phone this morning: fairly depressed about what she's seeing south of Indy: smaller yards (than we have now), houses in same range (with substantial fixes looming), and the cost being around the same. She actually raised the issue of Terre Haute, where her mom lives. It would put me about 75 minutes from the airport riding on US70. I am a bit ambivalent about that, not because I don't want to be close to Nona. I will not fight the logic of the only daughter and the aging parent, and I don't want to anyway. Frankly, whatever makes her happy will work for me.

Got the notes down to 32 last night, watching a bunch of "Night Gallery" episodes from season 1 with Em late in the morning hours, while Jerry and Vonne Mei slept on the big sectional with us. Hope to finish tonight and then spend Sunday going back over the articles, finding homes for those I really want to include but didn't scoop up in the first go-around. Then deliver first thing Monday morn to Neil Nyren.

Today: the drill goes on and on. Have base pass and will look to do all haircuts except Em, then drop Em off at basket class over on mainland, catching second viewing of "Robots" with other kids. Then shoot for 5pm mass and swimming after that.

Reducing my pile of old newspapers:

Nice to see Rice work that charm some on Putin ("Rice Tells Putin U.S. Is No Threat in Region: Mixing Pressure with Moscow with Words of Mutual Respect," , by Steven R. Weisman, NYT, 21 Apr 05, p. A6.). Her conversation seemed very heavy on investment laws relating to foreign companies and energy. Good call. She continues to impress on her choices.

Waiting . . . waiting . . . there it is!

Koizumi issues biggest apology in a decade on Japan's WWII activities vis-a-vis China ("Japan's Chief Apologizes for War Misdeeds: 'Deep Remorse' Voiced as an Asia-Africa Summit Meeting," by Raymond Bonner and Norimitsu Onishi, NYT, 23 Apr 05, p. A3). The Japanese PM knows when something has gone too far, as do the Chinese ("China Moves To Crack Down On Protests Against Japan," by Jim Yardley, NYT, 23 Apr 05, p. A3). Point made. Everyone knows where this relationship is going.

China is just too important to the likes of Honda and Toyota. Already, a senior DaimlerChrysler exec startles the industry by announcing the company will build cars in China to export to US! ("China Looms As the World's Next Leading Auto Exporter," by Keith Bradsher, NYT, 22 Apr 05, p. C1). Think the Japanese don't want some of that cheap labor (right now about 1/18th the cost of US)?

I say, get it while it's hot, because the Chinese are getting used to this wealth thing far faster than most imagine. They want more, more, more. And all that more will require higher wages,etc. Already you have a middle class bitching about stock prices there ("As China Rises, Sinking Stocks Spark Middle-Class Protests: Investors Accuse Comunists of Hyping Market Outlook; Dilemma on State Shares," by James T. Areddy and Peter Wonacott, WSJ, 21 Apr 05, p. A1). You gotta love it when the Commies are accused of hyping stocks!

The Pace-to-Giambastiani scenario comes true on Chairman: Peter Pace steps up from Vice to Chairman in Joint Chiefs, the first Marine to hold the position. Rules say he has two more years available to him, although you never know with Rumsfeld, who likes to change personnel rules more than any other sort in his never-ending transformation quest. Ed Giambastiani, the Navy admiral, moves up from Joint Forces Command and will likely become Chairman in two years, following Pace ("A Marine on Message: Peter Pace," by David S. Cloud, NYT, 23 Apr 05, p. A10.). Pace is on message. He is one of the band of brothers that rules in the much tighter civil-military style of Rumsfeld. Expect more changes, not less, under him. Not because he's a push-over, but because he believes . . ..

Polio back in Yemen! More examples of why firewalling the Core off from the Gap's worst exports is a necessary thing. Also proof of why vaccines are the way to go (pay them now or charge yourself later). This is a bad sign, but it's indicative of the challenges ahead ("Polio Back in Yemen After 6-Year ABsence: Again Immunizing Against a Disease Thought Nearly Gones Just a Year Ago," by Donald G. McNeil, Jr., NYT, 22 Apr 05, p. A8). You shrink the Gap or you fear the Gap. That is the essential choice.

That's why my discomfort over Benedict as pope remains: to me, it's totally a fear-the-Gap call--a circling the Core wagons mentality displayed. Catholicism isn't all about "us" anymore, and hasn't been for a very long time. I had a bit in BFA I thought I would have to rewrite with John Paul's death. Now I just need to jack up the wording to make it more pointed.

I hear screaming in the background. Better go before something expensive gets broken--like one of my kids!

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 24 April 2005

Finished the endnotes today. Had the last 10 to do, then I went through all my clippings and pulled articles that I hadn't gotten in but wanted to, and plugged them into existing endnotes, creating just a few new ones to accomodate cites I really liked and wanted in.

End total was 40 pages of text, just under 26,000 words. Basically another chapter.

Did this all on kitchen table, so as to spend time with kids while they told me various things, played various games, watched various movies, ate various meals, etc. Wasn't much of a Daddy day, but beats working at the office, I can tell you.

And so the first draft really ends 120 days after it began: the day after Xmas 2004.

Sent the file plus a list of changes to Mark this pm, after conversation.

Tomorrow I will print out all the interview transcripts and take them with me to the airport because . . . I'm flying to Indy to check out a house we will probably make an offer on. On the market 6 months and a bit overpriced, but very nice. Don't want to pay the full price because it's above our desired amount, but you're supposed to aim a little high, assuming your income is rising and you're buying for the average of the next ten years, so I'm trying to remember that real estate rule, because it's proven true in the past (two houses, now).

Vonne lands tomorrow in Providence just before 1pm and I fly right after. Get there tomorrow night and hope to see house before it gets dark. Then up for very early flight back next morning. Will write the Esquire piece between Tuesday noon and Wed 2pm. Have to get psyched for that.

Tomorrow we post version 1.0 of the weekly digest that we're going with in lieu of the monthly newsletter. Here's the hope: every week I pen something extra for the digest (or we find someone else we really want to do that on occasion). The digest also presents some old greatest blogs, plus a complete chrono order of the past week's entries, for people who like to read 'em that way. Toss in some letters and responses to "ask Tom" feature we're going to try, then the usual crass attempts to woo you with stuff or cool events like The New Map Game, and then we're out the door just like that.

Tomorrow's edition will have a special essay from me entitled, "The Top Ten List of Why I Hate "World War IV." Will I have something that good every week? I gotta get back into the swing of things now that Vol. II is off my back! Suggestions are always welcome.

Next week I am tempted to write about the pope selection. In the meantime, here's TM Lutas looking on the upside at http://www.snappingturtle.net/jmc/tmblog/archives/005340.html

Gotta get some sleep. My dogs are barking!

No really, I think that's my dog barking. He's getting scary big. I keep trying to pick him up like my old Westy and I'm going to hurt myself trying to do that eventually (or him). Nice bark though. Keeps the neighborhood kids' balls outta my yard!

Download as Word 7.0 document (442 KB):

http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/journals/barnett_25apr2005.doc

Download as PDF (308 KB):

http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/journals/barnett_25apr2005.pdf

About this Newsletter

The Newsletter from Thomas P.M. Barnett comprises original material by Tom, commentary from his blog, Esquire contributions, and published books, as well as feedback received via email. It is written and published by request only, based on your feedback.

Ask Tom

You've read The Pentagon's New Map, Tom's blog, or perhaps a published article. You've seen him do the brief - in person, on CSPAN, or DVD. What happens next?

You've got questions.

Suppose, for instance, you have the following question, 'Tom, should we be concerned with China as a hegemonious power in Asia?' You can submit the question to:

asktom@thomaspmbarnett.com

The questions and suggestions you submit to Ask Tom drive the publication of this newsletter. Please know that Tom reads each email. Additionally, members of The New Rule Sets Project, LLC assist Tom, per his request. One or more of us will personally respond to your email. The submissions we find most useful to the general understanding of The Pentagon's New Map will be published in future issues of The Newsletter from Thomas P.M. Barnett.

As always, your feedback is appreciated.

Download as Word 7.0 document (442 KB):

http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/journals/barnett_25apr2005.doc

Download as PDF (308 KB):

http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/journals/barnett_25apr2005.pdf

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 26 April 2005

Got to Indy last night around 6pm. Drove with Gloria, our realtor, to the house. Way nice neighborhood. Outside of the house looked good. On end of cul-de-sac. Back yard has small creek with footbridge over to land going up step hill, all wooded. We would own to top of hill. One acre total, maybe . . . 100 or so tall thin trees. Back yard so shaded, grass barely grows. House is very unique in terms of layout and lotsa windows, but overpriced, especially for smallish 2-car garage. We will offer much less than asking, because they have not updated house much at all and it's a 1988-er. Still, those windows--everywhere and huge! Back of cathedral living room is wall of windows facing backyard forest. Stunning really.

So realtor works up offer and we'll submit this week. Owners are building and like that we don't want in until mid-July. We'll see what they say on the price. Their realtor has already warned them they have not updated and are pricing as if they did.

Meanwhile, my wife, looking for cover art of second book to have on my b-day cake, discovers the BFA entry on Amazon!

Here it is: Blueprint for Action : A Future Worth Creating by Thomas Barnett.

The entry reads:

Product Details

Hardcover: 288 pages

Publisher: Putnam Adult (October 20, 2005)

ISBN: 0399153128

Here's the funny thing: the also-boughts are mostly by authors I cite in BFA as being excessively "dark":

The Pentagon's New Map by Thomas P. M. Barnett

Pentagon's New Map, The by Thomas Barnett

Algeny: A New Word--A New World by Jeremy Rifkin

The Age of Access: The New Culture of Hypercapitalism, Where all of Life is a Paid-For Experience by Jeremy Rifkin

Entropy: A New World View by Jeremy Rifkin

The War in 2020 by Ralph Peters

The Island of Dr. Moreau (Bantam Classics) by H.G. WELLS

No kidding. I actually cite Peters and that book, Rifkin and (I think) that book, and I cited Wells for "Moreau" but then switched it to "Time Machine." That is SOOOOOOOO weird!

I mean it! I just did those entries on Sunday in the endnotes!

So here are all my real books on Amazon now:



1) PNM hardcover at 2,188

2) PNM paperback at 6,035

3) BFA hardcover at 789,904

4) Romanian and East German Policies in the Third World (my PhD diss) at 2,261,335.

I note that the same also-boughts are there. Apparently, my hard-core fans are not attracted by my optimism!

Finished my review of all the interviews (13) and the transcripts (about 250 pages) on the plane home today. I get up at 0600 tomorrow, plot it by 0900, and write 8 hours til I depart for airport. Hope to have 6k to Warren before I go wheels up. I am psyched. Piece will write itself, which is why I mowed lawn today and watched 16mm newsreels of WWI with Kevin. Needed to decompress just a bit and let my mind wander as I get tuned up.

Wish me luck tomorrow. Gotta be good.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Tuesday, April 26, 2005


"THE NEW MAP GAME(tm)" to Investigate War and Peace in Decades Ahead


Exploration to follow grand strategy of Thomas P.M. Barnett from his New
York Times bestseller, The Pentagon's New Map


(Newport, RI) - Senior policy makers, defense officials, corporate leaders,
and global strategists from coast-to-coast are set to convene in Newport, RI,
May 31-June 2, 2005 for "The New Map Game: Investigating War and Peace in the 21st Century,(tm)" an unconventional war game where success is achieved if peace breaks out.


This three-day executive-level game will examine Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett's
theories, pitting participants against each other in a realistic role-playing
competition. The New Map Game will give players a unique experience and an
intimate understanding of how global affairs and the global business environment are likely to unfold in the near future. Participants will investigate how simulated world conditions could foster the rule of law, collective security,
economic connectivity, political community, and free markets protected from destabilizing strife.


What: TUESDAY May 31, 6:00 PM - VIP Reception and Dinner with Thomas P.M.
Barnett at the Hyatt Regency Newport.


WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY June 1-2 - Participants will be divided into four teams,
each representing a country from one of the four geo-political segments
described in The Pentagon's New Map: the Old Core, New Core, Seam States, and The Gap. Each team will role-play the most powerful people in their
respective countries.

• Old Core - Established politically and economically, these
  countries create and maintain modern international structures (e.g., USA, EU, Australia, Japan)

• New Core - Emerging economic markets and centers of geo-political power (e.g., China, India, Russia)

• Seam States - Emerging, volatile countries, potentially
  infiltrated by agents from The Gap (e.g., Mexico, Brazil, Greece, Pakistan)
  

• The Gap - States that are disconnected from the international system, characterized by repressive regimes, chronic poverty, disease, and conflict (e.g., Iran, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Sudan)

The four player countries are the United States (Old Core), China (New Core), Brazil (Seam State), and Iran (Gap). The game will use the "four flows" concept from PNM (people, money, security, energy) to animate the moves and moves-within-moves.

THURSDAY June 2, 2:30-4:30 PM - Debrief and Game Preliminary Results, with
Control Team commentary.


WHO: "The New Map Game: Investigating War and Peace in the 21st Century," is presented by Alidade Incorporated and The New Rule Sets Project, LLC, in collaboration with Alphachimp Studio Inc.


The New Map Game is sponsored by Enterra Solutions, LLC, whose Enterprise
Resiliency Management Solution* incorporates Tom Barnett's Pentagon's New Map rule-set principles to deliver a new strategic and operating paradigm for leading secure, compliant, adaptable, and high-performing critical
infrastructure entities within the third wave of globalization.


Confirmed as Keynote Speaker is Thomas P.M. Barnett.


Special guest and presenter Judy Pensabene, General Counsel, Senate Energy
and Natural Resources Committee, has been invited to speak as a Policy
Commentator. In addition, Stephen F. DeAngelis, President and CEO of Enterra
Solutions, will be a special guest and presenter at The New Map Game.


Also integrated into the gameplay will be several Cultural Ambassadors, who
will share their insights and intuitions regarding the decisions made within each Country Team. As participants seek to game the successes that need to occur, not just test the failures already imagined, they will benefit greatly from the fidelity that the Cultural Ambassadors' involvement will ensure. Confirmed Cultural Ambassadors include:

* Niu Ke (China Country Team) - Niu Ke is an associate professor at the Department of History, Peking University (PKU), and is also a researcher at PKU's Center for Studies of World Modernization Process. Presently he is visiting Harvard University as a Harvard-Yeching Visiting Scholar for the academic year 2004-05. He received his B.A. in 1992 and his Ph.D. in 1998, both from PKU.  His intellectual interests include development/modernization theories, Cold War history, U.S. aid/development policy to the Third World, and the interactions between U.S. social sciences and Government policy. While at Harvard, he is working to broaden his understanding of the American mind by focusing much of his work on the institutional and intellectual history of the U.S. Social Sciences.


* Geoffrey D. Schad (Iran Country Team) - Professor Schad has a Ph.D. and
M.A. in History from the University of Pennsylvania in the fields of Modern
Middle Eastern history (post-1800); comparative colonialism; and comparative
industrialization. He also received an A.M. in regional Studies-Middle East from
Harvard University; completed advanced study of Modern Standard Arabic from the Middlebury College School of Arabic; and graduated from Hamilton College A.B. Magna Cum Laude in History. Currently a Professor in the Department of History at Villanova University, Professor Schad has taught Middle East history at, among other places, the University of Texas at Austin and the University of
Pennsylvania.


WHERE: The Hyatt Regency Newport, located at 1 Goat Island, Newport, RI.


WHEN: May 31-June 2, 2005


#####


If you are a JOURNALIST who would like to embed with one of The New Map Game countries, please contact Steff Hedenkamp.
The New Map Game media credentialing form and interview request form may be downloaded.
For more information or to register visit:
http://www.newmapgame.com Contact: Steff Hedenkamp, New Rule Sets Project, LLC



About Alidade Incorporated. Alidade
Incorporated is a leading provider of innovative Information Age research
services. Alidade researchers focus on complex systems science, process
innovation, strategic investment options, and scenario-based planning and war
gaming for both military and commercial clients. Alidade was the first company
to pursue the "new sciences" as they apply to the US military's future. As members of the prestigious Santa Fe Institute, Alidade also hosts programs and workshops that bring world class experts in contact with senior executives to identify and explore new sources of advantage in the Information Age.


About The New Rule Sets Project, LLC. The New Rule Sets Project, LLC, (NRSP) was formed around Thomas P.M. Barnett's vision for the world and his message of "A Future Worth Creating." In all its efforts, NRSP is determined to develop and implement Tom's concepts, working with others toward that goal. Tom's book, The Pentagon's New Map (Putnam, 2004), marks an historical crossroad of many highways. Tom has erected signposts to the future and the role of NRSP is to help direct traffic down the right road. NRSP works collaboratively and strategically with its clients to develop groundbreaking ways of thinking about and creating desired futures. The firm helps its clients discover the sets of rules that enable or impede them across organizational sectors and geographical boundaries. NRSP uses innovative scenario planning, lateral thinking, and active listening techniques to engage its clients - leaders and decision-makers in government, security, and industry - in a learning dialogue. The firm does this during "summiteering:" intensive, executive-level explorations of simulated futures, posited and positive.


About Alphachimp Studio Inc.
Alphachimp Studio explores visual learning as a powerful tool in critical thinking, problem solving and strategic planning for business, education, governance and social enterprise. Their network of artists have used their talents to serve such diverse clients as the American Heart Association, Bayer Chemicals, Cap Gemini, the Alcoa Foundation, Ernst & Young, GM, GE, MIT, Fidelity Investments and Microsoft. Their skills at synthesizing ideas in a compelling and useful form have been used at major conferences for the Center for Business Innovation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Pop!Tech  and the Society for Organizational Learning.  The founder,
Peter Durand , has also been invited to contribute his talents to strategy sessions and war games sponsored by DARPA, USJFCOM and the Joint Chiefs of Staff, including past Alidade conferences on Search Theory and the Co-Revolutionary Competition. Peter's interests have recently turned to the emerging field of social enterprise. The Pittsburgh Social Enterprise Accelerator asked Peter to
co-design a methodology for aiding non-profits in the design of revenue-generating business models. For more information about Alphachimp
Studio, please visit www.alphachimp.com


About Enterra Solutions, LLC.
Enterra Solutions pioneered the field of Enterprise Resilience Management* and
is helping critical infrastructure entities to establish resilient operations and value chains. Enterra's proprietary Enterprise Resilience Management Methodology* (ERMM*) combines a proprietary best-practices model and leading-edge technology solutions with tailored process improvement services and
resilient business process outsourcing. Enterra's unique offering codifies and
embeds new rule sets and governance standards into the organizational core. ERMM* allows organizations to adopt an integrated approach to the management of security risks, compliance concerns, performance improvement, and corporate intelligence. Enterra's customers and partners include NASA, SAIC, Macromedia, Oracle, and the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University. For more information about Enterra Solutions and its Enterprise Resiliency Management* solutions, please visit
www.enterrasolutions.com or call (215) 497-3100.

From our press release:

(Newport, RI) - Senior policy makers, defense officials, corporate leaders, and global strategists from coast-to-coast are set to convene in Newport, RI, May 31-June 2, 2005 for "The New Map Game: Investigating War and Peace in the 21st Century,(tm)" an unconventional war game where success is achieved if peace breaks out.

This three-day executive-level game will examine Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett's theories, pitting participants against each other in a realistic role-playing competition. The New Map Game will give players a unique experience and an intimate understanding of how global affairs and the global business environment are likely to unfold in the near future.

Participants will investigate how simulated world conditions could foster the rule of law, collective security, economic connectivity, political community, and free markets protected from destabilizing strife.

If you are a JOURNALIST who would like to embed with one of The New Map Game countries, please contact Steff Hedenkamp. The New Map Game media credentialing form and interview request form may be downloaded at http://www.newmapgame.com/press.htm

For more information or to register visit: http://www.newmapgame.com

Dateline: Omni Resort at Championsgate, Orlando FL, 28 April 2005

Spent Wednesday writing and penned 3k. Didn't really work.

Submitted the offer on the house, took off on plane to Orlando, fixing the text some on plane and feeling pretty good after long talk with Mark (2300-0015), while I drove rental to Tampa and found my hotel there, provided by Special Operations Command (a nice La Quinta on Dale Mahbry Blvd up from MacDill AFB). Got to sleep about 0130 and then this am Tech Sgt picks me up in van and drives me onto MacDill and to SOCOM HQ.

Set up in same conference room we used to brief out to Deputy Commander last summer on Strategists' Panel. Then I spend 10 minutes just before I speak with my host, the Major General who runs ops and a bit more here. Very nice guy. Caught me at 0200 the night of one of the hurricanes down here while I was on CSPAN. He set me up for the day to brief his staff.

So I go about 100 minutes that morning, doing Q&A until they have to pull me off. The General and I catch retired Gen Jim Dozier's talk at U Tampa on terrorism. You might remember Dozier's ordeal at the hands of Red Brigade. Still used as a c-terror instruction case for US Gov travelers overseas. It was a real pleasure to talk with him.

Stuck in gate traffic on way back, had lots of time to speak with the MGen, who's just got his third star and would appear to be going places. He is a real fan of the book in the best way.

Back on base, I go another 100 minutes with senior staff from the General 's three op-oriented directorates. Great Q&A.

Got another nice Gen Doug Brown SOCOM command coin. This one will go to Kevin. It's one of the nicest I've ever received, with some of the center carved out to shape the specifics of the shield.

After long day with so many special operators, when I had to remind myself that whenever I referenced SOCOM, I was actually talking to SOCOM, I'm done at around 1700. Then back in car and drive to Orlando to drop off car. Then cab here.

Feeling beat. Will grab a bite and get up early to go again on text. Want to turn in bulk of it to Warren tomorrow when I get home. But think I'll be working it still Sat morning some.

But I feel somewhat better after last talk with Mark. Feel like I know what I want to write. The MGen today was helpful in that regard. He's briefed my subject a number of times and provided some good insights. My MGen did a lot of business in Afghanistan in OIF. Like everyone else here, a very impressive guy. I felt very honored to have him as a fan of the book. It was great to reconnect to a solid military audience all day long again.

No word yet on our house offer in Indy. Expecting a counteroffer.

Dateline: Omni Resort at Championsgate, Orlando FL, 29 April 2005

Up at 0500 and working the Esquire text. Feel good on how it's unfolding through 4400 words, but worry that I've spent too much time "getting inside the mind" and "the man" without getting enough exposition down on the storyline.

Gotta break now for breakfast with senior execs of the corporation hosting my talk today at 0800. After I'm done, I will spend two more hours on the beast before checking out (God I wish I could play golf just once at one of the fabulous resorts!), then the flight home.

I am getting optimistic that it will be done by COB today, but pessimistic that Mark and I will be editing like crazy right up to the last minute.

I do need to slow down.

Dateline: Omni Resort at Championsgate, Orlando FL, 28 April 2005

PNM hardcover at around 1,400, but paperback sitting around 19,000.

BFA -- Blueprint for Action -- all the way down to 15,000-something.

Getting ahead of ourselves here.

And yeah, I do check obsessively. You would too if the market was issuing you several grades every hour.

Dateline: Omni Resort at Championsgate, Orlando FL, 29 April 2005

I was on this morning. Went 100 minutes like wild fire through the brief, really popping on all cylinders thanks to getting back in the saddle yesterday at SOCOM. Corporate audience was really into it.

Then back upstars to room where I swap out clothes and pack. Almost two hours on the Esquire text gets it up to 6,348 and I've got . . . oooow . . . maybe 2k to go. I am finishing this bubba on the plane for sure.

Sending off what I got now to Warren so he doesn't freak.

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 29 April 2005

Up at 0500 and writing for two hours. Then the 90 minutes on stage. Then another two hours of writing. Then two+ hours on flight home.

Then some bonding with family. Then I realize that the health insurance I bought is probably crap, thanks to some fine print I note on the first "this is not a bill" letter.

Then my five-year-old cries because I say I have to go upstairs to write more and can't play with his new Sponge Bob dolls.

Then I re-edit the entire 9.3k piece, hoping to gain momentum to finish it. When I get to the end of the editing, I am brain dead, realizing I have written and edited 7k of words today.

Beer, hugs, bed. Then up to kill this f--ker tomorrow morning.

Warren has three hairs left on his head waiting for this in NY. We have to get it edited for production by start of business on Monday. I expect to have one hair left by then.

Ooops!

Jerry just showed up and he's asked to write:

YOU PLAY WITH MY SPONGE BOB TODAY UPSTAIRS NOW--AND PATRICK AND THE PATTY CAR (PATRICK DRIVE IT).

The rest gets kind of confused . . .

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 30 April 2005

Warren's always checking my blog to see what I'm up to. He's like my mother or something!

So last night while I'm talking to him on the phone at his office and he's still bitching (good naturedly) about my piece being late and all, he opens his browser to my blog and starts whining about, "Imagine that, here I am waiting on this piece in my office on a Friday night and where's my author? He's off blogging about how he can't finish it cause he's brain dead!!!!!!!"

He scared me for a bit there.

Anyway, I got off easy last night with Jerry. Only had to act out entire Sponge Bob movie (Jerry as Bob, I'm Patrick, who, quite frankly, isn't a good role for me).

Get up this a.m. and plug in some stuff I talk to Mark about last night and he's all "You should write that in the piece!"

He was right, of course, and they fit well.

Then I tried a para-too-far on this one thing, called my mentor Hank Gaffney on it, and decided to ditch the concept cause it was too hard to explain and didn't provide much power to the piece.

Then I got back to the beast and closed it out at just over 11k, adding the last 1k fairly tightly and getting in the last bits I really wanted to use.

Mark's got it now, and since I'm typing here instead of talking to him about it, I expect my cell to ring about 20 seconds after I hit the "save" button on Moveable Type.

I will spend afternoon bowling with boys, then probably swimming at Y tonight. Expect some assignments from between now and Monday morning on the piece, and will take them as they come.

Piece was fun but hard to write. Had to write like someone I'm not to a certain extent, because even though I know the material in my own way, I had to use what reporting I had, not insert my own thinking into the piece to the point where it stopped being a profile and started becoming my think piece.

Hard to explain, but I liked learning the lesson. I know I want to do more of this sort of writing, because the upside on learning is huge--as in, I am already plotting the content of Vol. III from this article and others I hope to write for Esquire this year.

Critt just tells me he has feature article for this week's digest and God love him for it. I just want to catch up on my Quicken and my travel vouchers and all those Ask Tom letters and . . . somehow fly my ass down to DC tomorrow night!

Still think I want to write on Pope selection, if only to make my Aunt Mary in AZ happy, and perhaps to trigger a call from my Mom, whom I can't seem to get ahold of lately. So I will target next week, maybe.

God I have to slow down. Just canceled gig in San Diego at end of month (Future in Review conference). No pay and they wanted me to fly myself and pay own hotel for the privilege. That just doesn't work when your kids beg you to spend time with them, so I have to say no. I get the feeling I'm going to have to get better at saying no a lot more in the future.

Off to the duck pins!