Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

This one was logistically grueling, but incredibly well set-up by Jenn. The locals were fabulous, as it was one well-run conference, and I performed about as well as ever, given the discombobulating distance (e.g., more word flubs than usual but overall a very strong performance).

Mining Indaba (South African indigenous phrase meaning "meeting") is a huge (several thousand attendees) event held each year at Cape Town. It is THE gathering of mining companies regarding Africa (about one-third of world's mining resources), so every huge global mining company was there.

For me, it was a fascinating event on several levels:

1) I had modeled the business processes of the mining industry years ago for a hedge fund and had profiled all the big players (etc., BHP, Anglo American, Rio Tinto), so I was fairly familiar with the industry. And yet, there is nothing like meeting the professionals F2F and hearing them talking about the industry at an industry gathering.

2) After meeting lots of Africans at military/aid events both here and on the continent (this was my fourth speech on the continent, but the first outside the defense and aid communities; I spoke at Cairo at a multinational mil exercise and Nairobi at the defense college there, plus I spoke to a professional development audience at the U.S. embassy in Nairobi), this was the first time I spoke to a purely business audience in Africa. It is really different. What you hear at the mil events and aid conferences is all disturbing and depressing and highly misleading in the large sense, since much of Africa works just fine. Indeed, many economies there are doing incredibly well, and we're talking a dozen and a half democracies where only 3 existed roughly a generation ago. More specifically, the commodities world is booming and will continue to boom for a long time, thanks to globalization and especially the Chinese. So it was fabulous to spend time with so many professional Africans talking about the future with such gusto. Globalization is not a dirty word in this venue and across Africa in general (I have found). They want more--not less.

3) This was my first trip to South Africa, which is simultaneously (no surprise for such a Seam State) highly first-world and highly third-world but all over a place where citizens take an enormous pride in their country, especially with the World Cup coming up. This was also only my second trip below the equator (Australia was #1). South Africa is now the 37th country I've visited on an academic/business basis (after Canada, Panama, UK, Sweden, Finland, Russia, Estonia, France, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, Italy, Greece, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Senegal, Egypt, UAE, India, Australia, Jordan, Turkey, Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Belarus, China and Japan). The only continent (other than Antarctica) that I've really missed out on is South America.

4) This was my first overseas audience for the Great Powers-edition brief, and the reception was more than I had dared hope for, especially from Africans, so that was hugely validating.

5) This was my first trip to Africa since we decided to adopt from Ethiopia, and it was great to talk about that with so many people there.

6) Any big industry event like this is a goldmine (pun intended), because you're simultaneously briefing so many companies (potential future audiences) and this is one flush industry.

7) Finally, you couldn't come up with a more difficult stress test for my post-surgical sinuses, and I passed it with great ease. Indeed, I was stunned at how well my head took the travel (about 55 hours in planes over six days). I really wasn't at all burned out by this trip, despite the extremity in sleep deprivation in places (to include going through two nights in a row on the trip out with no appreciable sleep).

In sum, I had a blast, made tons of useful biz connections, and hopefully laid the groundwork for future speaking opportunities in that industry, plus I learned a ton and went someplace I never visited before.

Frankly, it don't get any better than this.

Trip and talk were months in the planning. As always, Jenn earned her commission and then some, and her advance work here was much appreciated by both sides. I fielded numerous unsolicited and very positive comments from Indaba personnel about working with her. Her fabulous work and my outstanding perf, in combination with all the opportunity exploited, made this arguably our most outstanding collaboration together to date.

I got up Saturday morn, the 30th, feeling nothing special. Just got back late Thursday from a combined US mil/Enterra trip that ran three days, so had only Friday and Sat morn to catch up with family/house/blog/work in general, and my extremely bad sleep pattern of the previous several weeks (recovering from surgery and accumulated bad habits from all those months of non-stop infections) seemed to be hitting its apogee. So I headed out feeling pretty dragged down by life and the prospect of this stunning amount of travel packed into 120 hours (roughly half travel of some sort, when driving included).

Vonne and I head out to Indy airport at 1pm and I'm all checked in by 1:45 for my planned 2:38pm flight to Dulles, but a big snow storm there means I need to phone Jenn and re-plot the trip to Cape Town. The United flight from Dulles takes off four hours late, so its return trip there (with me on it) missed the once-a-day connecting South African Airlines flight into Johannesburg. I can't wait for the next day, because that would have me arriving only a few short hours before my talk, totally blitzed out of my mind. So Jenn, working her magic, gets me switched to a 10pm flight out of Dulles to Frankfort, then a quick hop to London on Lufthansa, then a SA flight direct to Cape Town. Sounds tough and extravagant, but honestly, I was going to do four flights going there no matter what, because my Dulles flight would have gone to Dakar, then to Joburg, and then to Cape Town.

We finally take off from Indy at 7pm, four hours late. When we land in Dulles, there's snow everywhere, and I was a bit surprised to see planes moving, given how much was on the tarmac and strips.

When I get to Dulles, I'm still pretty worried about getting out of there. No huge surprise as the United flight to Frankfort gets off four hours late, essentially erasing my layover there and causing me to miss my Lufthansa connector to London. The flight over was nice enough, as I sat next to a young Egyptian woman heading home (she works at the US embassy). I watched the "Sopranos" fifth season going over, not sleeping a wink and not even trying. We took off 2am local time and landed 3:15 Frankfort time. Add six hours and it's a bit over seven hours. We spent 9 in the plane, thanks to the de-icing, etc.

Once in Frankfort, I had to get my ass through that place's stunningly slow security (security is very tight now in both Europe and America and every flight coming into those regions). Frankfort's set-up is so bad that it makes most big American airports seem super-efficient in comparison. I always hate going through there. I finally get to the counter of the flight to London that I missed. Good fortune: Lufthansa flies to London basically every two hours, so my four-hour layover in Heathrow was safe. I catch the 5:15pm to make up for my missed 3:45pm. I even manage to refuel my laptop some.

The late afternoon flight to Heathrow was nice enough: nice snack meal and plenty of legroom because I'm in the first economy row. I focus on reading more of my Jean Edward Smith bio of U.S. Grant. It an amazingly good book, and Grant is a thoroughly fascinating and huge figure (first serving four-star flag in U.S. history, redefines U.S. warfare, really pulled the otherwise largely incompetent U.S. Union military leadership through to victory, narrowly missed sitting next to his beloved Lincoln at Ford Theater that night of the assassination, essentially commanded Reconstruction through his oversight of military commanders in the south during Johnson administration and, in many ways, single-handedly stood up to that racist bastard, and then was the youngest elected president--til JFK--and ran a highly talented cabinet that managed a lot of crucial firsts and constituted the only two-full-term presidency between Jackson and Wilson)--truly a vastly underappreciated figure in U.S. history).

Once in Heathrow, I get my butt over to the SA flight gate. Per the norm of this trip, it leaves two hours late. Why? We're out on the strip and just about to take off when pilot on plane behind us notices too much sheen on the wings and we need to go back and de-ice.

On this flight, I was lucky because I was a last-hour addition. Got an aisle seat in way-back row where, because of the plane's tapering, the middle section goes from 4 to three seats. Only problems: no individual entertainment system and the guy next to me on the right is a behemoth. Nice gimme: liquor is free on SA. I don't indulge but it does provide me with a mental release as the big guy goes zombie about three hours in. I just focus on my "Sopranos" til my second battery dies, and then I switch to "Futurama" and "Star Trek" on my iPod. When that dies, it's more "Grant" and then I finally succumb and watch a documentary on the platypus on the jet's system. Good dinner after takeoff and a decent breakfast. There's also as many bottles of water as you want. I sleep, I think, about 90 minutes on the 11-hour(!) flight. Stunning to consider, but it is one long way when you fly the entire "height" of Africa, starting from the UK.

This trip down to Cape Town was also the first time I flew over two consecutive nights and the first time I've ever flown three separate airlines on one journey. We land locally at noon, moving back to GMT +2 (or 7 hours ahead of Indy time).

Getting through customs not bad, and my one checked bag is there (I always wear all black on overseas trips and keep everything with me needed to give the talk). Nice local guy (life-long C.T. resident) picks me up at airport and drives me into the downtown where the giant Westin sits attached to the equally giant Cape Town International Convention Center (CTICC). I admire the "table top" mountain hanging over the city (which reminds me a lot of San Fran with its up and down streets and vast sea views) and the guy drives me way up into the city so I can get some nicer photos. He regales me big time on local history. I ask him if his gig is covered and he says everyone he's picking up for the conference is paying him direct. While I discovered later that this was untrue for me (Indaba had pre-paid), I was a bit surprised and told him I needed to go inside and change money to pay him the 200 rand (plus tip). So he parked outside and I went in with my bags, checked in, and got the money changed. Then I went back outside and spent 45 mins looking for him. Cabs were everywhere and the place was jammed with conventioneers, plus the security was high, so I had no luck in finding him again and figured maybe he drove off because he knew he'd catch me on the backside. Later, upon finding out he was wrong about my gig, I figure he may have called in to his dispatch and discovered his error. Anyway, it weirded me out a bit, giving my trip that continued feeling of being slightly cursed.

But, despite my great fatigue, I checked my garment bag (because my room was unavailable til 3pm and it was only 1pm) and wheeled over my briefcase (which I never surrender to anybody ever on trips) to the big convention center across the street. I check in and get my stuff (logo bag stuffed with docs, badge with gift thumb drive, and ticket to gala dinner the next night). I then head into AV central, where the techs tell me that I can't use the Mac--no way no how. Everything is run off a server at the AV center and piped into the various halls. Okay, I say, and I pull out my dead Mac and ask for a power strip. Now, I had bought one of those funky three-round-prong South African adapters at the Brookstone store at Indy airport before I left, but the techs take one look at it and laugh, saying it's a weird miniature version of the real plugs. I am stunned, but sure enough, it's too small for the power strip.

Luckily, the strip has one classic Euro hole and I'm carrying one of those adapters, so I plug in and start working on the brief even though I didn't want to try anything prior to sleeping. But the techs want it by 6pm local and say they'll only open up on Tuesday about an hour before my early morning keynote, and that's too little time if something goes wrong. So I try, but my brain is so fried, I cannot even begin to work the brief, which I know I'm going to adapt more than usual for the specifics of the mining industry and Africa (plus there's always 1-2 slides I want to build up, based on some recent news or data I've come across). So when it strikes 3pm I unplug, having accomplished virtually nothing, and make my excuses (which do not please them), telling them I'll return sharp at 0700 Tuesday.

I get into my hotel room and try to plug in my Mac. The wall sockets include one Euro plug and I shove in my surge protector. When I hook up my laptop, the surge protector blows all its fuses! Now I'm s--t out of luck and back to feeling cursed on this trip. I call the desk and they're happy to send up a proper South African adapter. So I set about closing the curtains to make the room dark when I notice this lamp plugged into the wall. Its prong seems smaller than the other ones and--sure enough--so too is the wall socket. My Brookstone mini model fits just fine! I feel like my luck is turning.

So I then shower, take an Ambien and crash. I sleep from 4pm local time til 0100, when I wake up feeling amazing rested. Knowing this would happen and knowing I'd be burned out on video and the book, I had reserved this block of time to work the brief. So I spent two hours staring at all my slides, trying to select the 20 or so I'd use and sequence them in the way I feel would work for the crowd. Around 3am, I have my sequence set, and take time to call home on Skype, which is really fun because the kids love being on the video feed and seeing me in response.

Thirty minutes later I'm working the slides, making a ton of adaptations. I work right up to 0630, finalizing the transitions, which I must change because I know my customary cube-shifts won't work on a PC.

I always work up to the last minute, but this time it's not bad, because my grey Hugo Boss is newly pressed and I don't need to work the shirt because it's one of those super-thin fabrics that does not wrinkle. So I'm all suited up by 0650 and waiting for the techs at the AV center when they show up.

I put the brief on the given thumb drive before I left my hotel room, so I now hand it over to the techs. It comes up fine on one of the local laptops.

The head tech then takes me over to the venue. It is a huge convention space with maybe 1500 seats in front of a huge stage with a screen that towers above and stretches maybe 60 feet wide and 30 feet high. The set-up is very professional and there's about twenty techies on site. They pull up the brief and we test the clip-on mike. The clicker, provided by them, does not work. Mine is the first brief of the day, so this is their shake-out cruise. Turns out they need to deconflict the hertz-wave signal from others being used in the center.

When we get that figured out, and everyone is happy on all scores, to include the guy who will film me live for projection up on the big screen (a window next to my slides on the big screen), it's 0745 and I head back to the AV center to fiddle with the brief. Why? The switch to a PC means a bunch of fonts will be changed and certain visual images dumped. You can never predict where this will happen and it's different on every G.D. PC; you simply have to fix on the spot.

I do my best to patch the few bad spots, having to cannibalize from the brief itself because the client I'm working on is not connected to the Web. I get it done and look at my watch. It's 8:15. I'm supposed to be on at 8:21, but I figure, "What if they're running early?" Typically, it's the opposite, but I think, best to go.

I grab my bag and zip out, grabbing a cup of joe and a Danish to stuff in my mouth. I walk the 60 yards to the giant hall and then enter in the back. You have to go about 30 yards before you hit the temp back wall. I walk into the darkened chamber and turn to the AV guys on the right, getting ready to tell them to be sure to use the new version.

Then I hear the speaker: it's the host introducing me and I can tell he's not far from the end! I set my coffee on the floor and starting running toward the front of the space. It's a good 50-60 yards and I racing down the center aisle. As the speaker says, "And without further adieu . . . " I make it just short of the stage. I can tell everybody's looking around for me. The anxious AV guy clips on the mike and I shove the battery pack in my back pocket.

I'm up on the stage as the applause dies out. Then I glance up at the screen and it looks totally f--ked, like the monitor in the back must be showing a freeze! I stand there with the host for a good 30-40 seconds, which feels like an hour onstage. Then the title slide appears!

I press the clicker. Nothing.

I start pressing it like crazy. Nothing.

I say out loud, "Not getting any response here on the clicker."

I can sense the AV guys scrambling like crazy. Meanwhile, I contemplate speaking with no slides.

My mind is racing now, and I'm thinking, this is the last straw in a cursed gig! Why didn't I see this coming?

The better part of a minute passes, and I can feel the crowd getting restless while I vaguely hear myself uttering some bland opening stuff (it's a truly out-of-body sensation when you feel a talk heading south). That's nothing compared to me.

Then the first image appears! I click again. No latency!

I awkwardly exit my first slide, but by the first "Law and Order" ka-chung, I'm relaxed and the map slide goes really well. I glance down at the warning clock. I've used only 2 minutes of my 45.

The rest goes really well. The only trick--as always with convention centers--is that the laughs take forever to make to you onstage. It just bounces around the walls before ricocheting to your ears at the end of the vast space. You learn to listen for the beginning rumble in the distance and then pause just a bit before proceeding.

I finish 30 slides with seven minutes left! I'm stunned at how smoothly they roll, because I don't truncate the verbal delivery whatsoever and I'm not going fast. Apparently, it was the right 20 white slides (my content ones, with 8 cut-to-black scene-setters and the opening and closing slides).

They open for questions, but as I discover, nobody asks any questions in the big sessions. Individuals just don't want to get up and speak in front of that many people. So my host asks a couple, which I drive home nicely enough. I'm very relaxed at this point.

Big round of applause.

Thing I suddenly note: this place is SRO, with maybe 200 crammed in the back and around the sides. I spoke to somewhere around 1,700 people, according to the conference handlers. The whole rest of the day, the place comes nowhere near close to being that full. The expo is too big and there's so many side meetings going on all over the place.

The rest of the day is perfect: people coming up throughout and complimenting me on the talk and exchanging biz cards. My favorite fielded question repeated time and again: "Would you be willing to give this talk to X?"

I meet a load of interesting people, including the government head of the mining industry in Zimbabwe. I give him a paperback. He asks if I've ever been, and, as is my rule, I say, "No, but I'd love to be invited." We'll see on that one.

I sit through a bunch of CEO talks, then do the lunch in the huge hall next door (buffet lines and you eat standing up). It's a good meal, considering the circumstances. I'm not alone for more than a few minutes, as people are eager to step up and strike up conversations.

Afterward, I cruise the ginormous expo hall. Well over a hundred booths and several big pavilions (one by the gov of Canada, a mining presence of great note). I lost count after a while.

Around three, I feel my body crashing and pass up the last talks. I did catch one great one on China's unprecedented rising presence in the industry and especially in Africa. It was by a very good presenter from a consulting group called Beijing Axis.

I head back to my room and do 50 mins of yoga, pausing to Skype with my wife for a while. After a shower, I iron a new shirt and grab a new tie and suit up, heading back down to the cocktail hour.

Twenty minutes later I'm on one of the huge touring buses that take about a thousand people to a special gala dinner hosted by Anglo American. It's at this very famous century-plus old plantation that one of the original Dutch colonial giants built. It sits about 30 miles out of town, to the north (I think), in their version of Napa Valley. I shoot photos of the interior as we pass through the big house. Dinner's out back in a huge tent. Music performed onstage throughout. Fab dinner. I sit with the Indaba people. The head of the organization comes up and congratulates me, saying he was sorry to be engaged during my presentation but reporting that damn near everybody he's met afterward has asked him the same question, "Did you hear the Barnett talk?" He says my presentation is clearly the talk of the convention, and seems very pleased.

This is music to my ears. I can tell I was the rare paid speaker at this event, because everyone is there presenting for their company to the industry, and those are not paying gigs but instead gigs you pay for (your dues to the organization and what not). With that mind, I HAVE to knock people's socks off. Otherwise I'm looking at one unhappy sponsor and host organization.

Judging by the follow-up email from my host Tim the next day, the talk was deemed a grand slam by everyone involved, based on voluminous audience feedback. Naturally, I couldn't have been more pleased as I hit the hay around midnight Tuesday night.

Up at 0900 on Wednesday (2am back home), I hit the hotel breakfast, and then head up to pack. Unfortunately, I suffer one of these bad nosebleeds that I've been having since the surgery (something not quite totally healed up yet) and end up spending much of my remaining minutes icing my head to stop that. I've got just a few minutes to pack up, shower, and race downstairs to catch my ride back to the airport.

I get to the Cape Town airport and find the airline, for some reason, switched my reservation to Johannesburg to an earlier flight, which I just missed! Makes no sense to me, but there it is. I'm put on the next flight in 90 minutes. I still make it to Joburg with four hours of layover. Nice meal on the short, 90-min flight--like going back in time.

The Joburg airport is very cool. I shop and get a souvenir for myself (mini rugby ball with SA logo) and something for Vonne for Valentine's Day. I keep having to buy bottles of water because every time I go through a security screen, I lose them. Once through what I think is the last one, turns out there's a special last screen on any U.S. flights. My last bottles of water are confiscated. Turns out I'm s--t out of luck because the only store behind the final security screen is closed. So I face an 18.5 hour flight with no water. Fortunately, as I mentioned earlier, SA Airline leaves bottles out for customers throughout the flight.

The mega-flight, with an hour stopover in Senegal (Dakar), isn't too full so I get a pair of seats on the right to myself. I just chug water and watch "Sopranos" episodes (much of the last season) the whole way, pausing every so often for a stretch with "Grant." It's 8.5 hours, then Dakar, then another 8.5 hours.

Flying over Africa, you really can see the village fires. The light is distinctly orange versus the usual electric yellow. Dakar is a fascinating landscape, jutting out at the western-most point of the big hump that is West Africa. It's amazing to think you fly over eight hours just to get from the bottom to about two-thirds of the way up, but you're traveling as far west as you would if flying from our East Coast to the West Coast.

Flying over from Dakar takes so long because you're flying the entire Atlantic AND coming up from as far south, in equivalent terms, as Honduras, meaning you basically fly through the Bermuda Triangle (yes, I felt it).

I land in DC at 7:15 am, and my flight to Indy starts boarding in 44 minutes. I do my best to zip through passport (following one of those unique Dulles transport rides), luggage, customs and luggage drop-off. Then I must run for a real length to catch the new train to the A terminal. Long run up to the actual terminal, and then I get the joy of running the length of the entire terminal to #1. The whole dash is maybe half a mile, and I'm digging it like any international traveler after 20-plus hours of flying.

I get inside the plane about 3 minutes before they close up.

I'm home by noon, and spend the afternoon chilling.

Last night I get a solid 13 hours and today (Friday) I felt great, which was good, because we had to shovel multiple times through this big snowstorm.

In the end, a really good trip.

Photos to follow.

OP-ED: We need a new capitalism to take on China, By Anatole Kaletsky, (London) Times, February 4, 2010

As analysis goes, a bit backasswards. Politics derives from underlying economics, not vice versa. So it's not a matter of choosing your politics to facilitate your economics, but maturing your politics in response to your economic trajectory.

Two undeniable data points kill this guy's argument:

1) Once an economy matures (shifts from extensive to intensive growth), democracies consistently outperform authoritarian regimes on annual GDP growth; and

2) there are no rich, large-scale economies on the planet that are not democracies.

So please ignore this most common of pants-wetting exercises.

(Thanks: Gareth Williams)

PROJECT: Charting the Beatles, By Michael Deal

Interesting. The break point is roughly Epstein's death. Lotsa collaboration before, much less after.

EUROPE: "'Eastern Europe': Wrongly labeled; The economic downturn has made it harder to speak sensibly of a region called 'eastern Europe,'" The Economist, 9 January 2010.

Nice opening line:

It was never a very coherent idea and it is becoming a damaging one.

The notion basically refers to those states caught behind the Iron Curtain but not trapped within the USSR itself (although, now, the three Baltic states seem to be casually included while a Ukraine is not). Within that crew, as the article argues, we saw planned economies, the softer "goulash" version (Hungary) and the self-managed sort of Yugoslavia (and to a lesser extent, Romania).

Problem is, the fortunes of these states have diverged dramatically since 1989: Estonia and Slovenia rank in Europe's upper half. Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia more in the middle, Bulgaria and Romania more at the bottom.

In geographic terms, it seems that the northern EE states have been far more integrated into the West than the southern ones.

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA: "Somalia's pirates: A long war of the waters; Thanks to greater vigilance and naval patrols, the seas off Somalia may be a bit less dangerous than they were. But they are still the riskiest in the world," The Economist, 9 January 2010.

The usual piece on the subject. Why I cite: it reminds me that this is a problem easily solved by collaboration among the world's great power militaries--if they wanted to throw enough resources at the problem.

But the larger reality is that all of them, while devoting modest naval resources in this direction, still view the situation as a lesser-included that shouldn't seriously derail larger preparations for, and hedges against, one another.

And that's a pretty accurate capture of where we stand today: the world's great powers remain an uneasy bunch, with some fretting over their relative decline and others getting used to their absolute rise.

ARTICLE: China's Zeal for 'Avatar' Crowds Out 'Confucius', By SHARON LaFRANIERE, New York Times, January 29, 2010

Hollywood, the Chinese, and I all need to admit: Cameron really is king of the world!

Saw "Avatar" a second time in DC last week, small screen but 3D.

The politics is heavy handed ("The sacred land!"), but it is compelling spectacle.

I liked it even more, and I can just imagine how "Confucius" ranks up against its action.

ARTICLE: Engineering Peace, BY Susan Karlin, IEEE Spectrum, January 2010

Saw a story on this a while ago.

It is a cool little tale of connectivity.

(Thanks: Greg Welch)

ARTICLE: Russia's evolution, seen through Golden Arches, By Andrew E. Kramer, New York Times, Feb. 2, 2010

Fascinating piece that shows the rippling effect on private enterprise development that McDonald's entry into the Russian market, primarily in its quest to ultimately source everything locally.

This is a real story of globalization's rule-spreading capacity, driven by the lure of individual opportunity.

(Thanks: Jeff Jennings)

ARTICLE: Are Haredi leaders losing their followers to the Web?, By Miriam Shaviv, Haaretz, 02/02/2010

Interesting piece that shows the inherent tension between fundamentalist variants and the technologies of connectivity.

(Thanks: Ken Nalaboff)

Last week in Cape Town, South Africa, I was a keynote speaker at the massive Mining Indaba conference, the premier annual gathering of global extractive companies involved in Africa's dominant economic sector. And the difference between the many military and aid conferences I've attended on Africa and this international commodities convention in Africa was telling. If you think most Americans now obsess over a "rising" China, you should know that we take a backseat to the Africans on this score. But whereas we often see China's rise as a potential threat, Africans see it as an opportunity, and China's "positive resource alliance" -- as another speaker put it -- is the primary reason why.

Continue reading this week's New Rules column at WPR.

POST: Pentagon Review Highlights Major Shift in Thinking, The Slatest, Feb. 1, 2010

Excerpt:

The Pentagon will release a new strategic outlook today that highlights a dramatic shift in how the U.S. military plans for war. For nearly a quarter-century, the Pentagon has built its strategy around a hypothetical situation that involved two conventional wars in two different locations. But, faced with a changing reality, the new hypothetical will involve a host of enemies, both physical and virtual. Military planners will now build a strategy and style of fighting that takes terrorism and cyber attacks into consideration. "It is no longer appropriate to speak of major regional conflicts as the sole or even primary template for sizing, shaping or evaluating U.S. forces," the document says. The last major review, according to CNN, was released in 2006 and "was heavily focused on the threat of a large-scale conventional war with China and that country's saber rattling over Taiwan." Obviously, things have changed in the past four years. China is still considered a threat, but, should a conflict escalate, it will likely be anything but conventional. The new review also takes the environment into account by considering climate changes; the review "suggests the military will have to plan on operations where climate (rising sea levels, reduced ice in the Arctic) would be a factor in planning," CNN reported.

Long time coming, but very nice to see.

(Thanks: Rich Jefferson)

Plus this excerpt from the QDR sent in by Aaron Krizik:

Just as maintaining America's enduring defense alliances and relationships abroad is a central facet of statecraft, so too is the need to continue improving the Department of Defense's cooperation with other U.S. departments and agencies. Years of war have proven how important it is for America's civilian agencies to possess the resources and authorities needed to operate alongside the U.S. Armed Forces during complex contingencies at home and abroad. As our experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq have shown, sustainable outcomes require civilian development and governance experts who can help build local civilian capacity. Although the U.S. military can and should have the expertise and capacity to conduct these activities, civilian leadership of humanitarian assistance, development, and governance is essential. The Department will retain capabilities designed to support civilian authorities as needed. A strong and adequately resourced cadre of civilians organized and trained to operate alongside or in lieu of U.S. military personnel during a variety of possible contingencies is an important investment for the nation's security. This is an urgent requirement for ongoing operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, and will remain an enduring need in the future security environment--both to prevent crises and to respond to them.

The SysAdmin is being built, bit by bit in both the public and private sectors (and please, that's not a veiled reference to private security companies; never think so small or narrowly), because the operating environment, which I dubbed the Non-Integrated Gap, simply continues to demand it.

ARTICLE: Haitians to Africa? Senegal resettlement plans gain steam, By Scott Baldauf, Christian Science Monitor,February 2, 2010

Oddly enough, I read this piece while in Dakar, Senegal.

Not sure how realistic it is, but it fits with the harsh reality that Port au Prince seriously needs to be depopulated for a while, given the widespread damage.

And yes, I am a true bragabond.

EURASIA INSIGHT: AFGHANISTAN: WASHINGTON EXPLORING CHINESE RE-SUPPLY ROUTE, By Deirdre Tynan, EurasiaNet.org, 2/02/10

Nice if this could sneak through despite all the tough-talk posturing in both DC and Beijing right now.

It would be a wonderfully grown-up thing for both sides.

(Via WPR's Media Roundup)

UNITED STATES: "Integrated, but irked: The tensions of being Muslim and American," by Lexington, The Economist, 9 January 2010.

The good news: American Muslims are, on average, more likely than the rest of America to have jobs and be professionals. They're also a lot more satisfied with this lives than their European counterparts.

But when you have the Michael Savages of America describing the rising numbers of Muslims in our country as "throat slitters ... clawing at the gate," there's little surprise that the average American Muslim lives with some serious unease.

UNITED STATES: "Latinos and American politics: Power in numbers; Hispanics, long under-represented as voters, are becoming political kingmakers," The Economist, 9 January 2010.

Piece accurately notes that the growing heft of Hispanic legislators is already being felt in two of our biggest states: Texas and California. These two offer distinct previews of what will happen on a national level.

The growth of Hispanics, along with the Boomers aging out, are the two biggest demographic trends going on inside America, says The Economist. Hard to deny.

For now, Hispanics "punch below their weight," unlike African-Americans. But major change is coming. The piece notes that Obama's win was decisively influenced by Hispanics, a first in presidential elections. They voted for him 2-to-1 over McCain. Kingmaker status seems inevitable, and once it comes, just wait for America to reopen the Union for new membership.

BRIEFING: "Israel and Iran: The gathering storm; As Israel pushes for sanctions against Iran, it also mulls options for war," The Economist, 9 January 2010.

Starts with the usual Osiraq imagery, or when Israel took out Iraq's nuclear reactor in 1981. As noted here many times, Iran does not present that simple and easy-to-access target profile, having distributed and buried its assets underground and deep below mountains.

But Israel publicly reckons that Iran is about a year away from weaponizing, so the temptation for signaling, no matter how ineffective the outcome may be, is substantial and understandable.

Most estimates are that a lengthy bombing course would definitely set Iran back 1-2 years.

A good description of Israel's unease:

Israel thus finds itself in a paradoxical state: more secure for now, but acutely anxious about the future; closer than ever to some Arab regimes because of a perceived common threat from Iran and its radical allies, yet more demonized by its Western friends. Israelis see a global campaign of "delegitimization" akin to efforts to isolate white-ruled South Africa.

Will bombing make this situation any better? Hard to see, especially when you know Iran will simply re-double its efforts, ramp up its threatening rhetoric and publicize every tiny advance as it moves again toward weaponization, which, this time, Tehran will be highly incentivized to put out in the open for all to see.

Of course, all this focus provides the excuse for Israel to resist any efforts at progressing with the Palestinians, another dynamic that feeds its global demonization.

Hard to see anything to be optimistic about here in the short run. Nonetheless, I still foresee Iran's acquisition of nukes, along with similar subsequent efforts by Turkey and Saudi Arabia, as the next logical negotiating point that will most definitely draw in all the relevant outside great powers in a concerted effort to stabilize the situation. I honestly think everything that comes before that inflection point will be meaningless--if tumultuous and dangerous and deadly. I just don't see any big opening possibility for Obama to step through. This die seems decidedly cast, unless the Green Movement succeeds in some dramatic way inside Iran, something I don't see happening in time even as I harbor some significant hopes in that direction.

BRIEFING: "Iran and its region: A supreme leader at bay; Ayatollah Ali Khamenei faces a growing barrage of opposition. Now prominent intellectuals are adding their voices to the fray," The Economist, 9 January 2010.

The Supreme Leader seems politically adept at pissing off just about everyone over the past several months: not doing enough fast enough to stem the opposition, according to the conservatives, and being a complete bastard who's allowed the Revolutionary Guard to execute a putsch and brutal repression of the movement, according to would-be reformists and moderates.

The increasing marginalization of the Supreme Leader, in my mind, has always been a goal of the Guard and Ahmadinejad, who has sought from the start to bolster the presidency and build a strong single-party state that extends its control increasingly over the economy. The SL is a useful idiot in this regard, but also, under the right conditions, a decent bargaining chip for the Guard in placating popular demands for change, especially as the clerics and some portion of the faithful move into opposition mode.

Having survived more than two decades at the top of Iran's power structure, Mr. Khamenei is now looking acutely uncomfortable. By refusing to countenance a fresh election in the aftermath of the June poll, he turned much of the ire that was being directed against his president against himself. As recently as a few months ago, few Tehranis would have dared whisper "Death to Khamenei." Not what slogan has become commonplace.

Another key point raised in the piece: Iranians in general are less convinced that democracy is the answer but are decidedly driven by traditional notions of a "just ruler."

And that's the image that Khamenei is losing.

GLOBAL INSIGHT: "Central plot of China-US ties faces off-stage challenge," by James Kynge, Financial Times, 8 January 2010.

WORLD NEWS: "Chinese demand drives regional recovery," by Kevin Brown and Justine Lau, Financial Times, 8 January 2010.

FINANCE AND ECONOMICS: "China's export prospects: Fear of the dragon; China's share of world markets increased during the recession. It will keep rising," The Economist, 9 January 2010.

Kynge's argument: everyone says the West's need to reduce its demand of Chinese goods forces Beijing to redirect toward domestic consumption, but China's export engine has already redirected to Asia and other BRICs. While he doesn't offer any details of those trade flows, the argument seems reasonable enough even as I'm suspicious that a lot of that new trade flow is locked-in long-term commodities agreements (like with Brazil).

The unmentioned reality here: China's pegging to the dollar has kept its currency unrealistically cheap, so that redirect of exports has come at a stiffer price for China's partners, who end up paying more for the same flow or getting less in return for the same exports.

The Economist notes that while American imports from China have fallen as an absolute amount, our imports from the rest of the world have fallen even faster, meaning now China's share of U.S. imports is higher than it's ever been at 19%. That means, instead of accounting for one-third of our trade deficit in the past, now China represents roughly half.

China's share of world trade is also heading up, looking to reach 12% by 2014 according to the IMF. By contrast, kingpin America controlled 18% of world trade in the early 1950s and now stands at 8%. For China to continue hitting the lucky 8% growth goal every year, if its remains as dependent on trade as it is today, its share of global trade would need to reach 17% by 2020, again according to the IMF.

Upshot of all these numbers? Global resistance to China's currency and trade practices is only likely to grow across this decade. That means plenty of tension, lots of standoffs, and some substantial "blinking" by Beijing unless it wants to trigger some serious retaliation.

Do I consider all these dynamics a step backward for globalization? Hardly. You can't have all this rising connectivity without tension, because it demands change--especially domestic change--from participants that's plenty scary.

WORLD NEWS: "Gates fears pressure on health aid," by Andrew Jack, Financial Times, 25 January 2010.

Gates worries that donor focus on climate change will shortchange health efforts inside the world's developing regions, or what I call the Gap.

Of course, Gates himself is heavy into such investments.

Apparently his foundation is catching guff for not pushing more money in the direction of climate change mitigation.

PERISCOPE: "China Puts the World Off Balance," by Minxin Pei, Newsweek, 1 February 2010.

Bits and pieces: "habitual free rider," "refusal to strengthen is currency," "rebuffed the West's call for ...."

China's constant reply: low per capita income, which is fair enough at $3,500--more or less.

But the key line: "The more likely explanation for the country's obstreperousness is that despite its rise, China is no more comfortable with the Western-led international system now than it was 10 years ago."

Not surprisingly, basically the same leadership is in place: Hu and Wen were clearly ascendant back in 2000, and they're wrapping up their rule now. Classic homebodies who didn't travel abroad for their tertiary education, due to the Cultural Revolution, they remain as tone-deaf diplomatically today as they were back when they started. It is simply not in their nature.

Yes, the PRC continues to reject democracy and human rights, but it still accepts U.S. leadership as an enduring reality, and it'll remain that way so long as China's self-definition makes it too unappealing to the advanced economies of the Core.

Here I agree with Pei a lot:

Yet the days when China can have it both ways--freeload on global public goods while enjoying international respect--are about to end. Disillusionment with its self-serving policies is setting in.

As someone who plans AHEAD (!), I can catch a lot of crap for my vision not unfolding fast enough--as with China.

But my sense of timeframe remains constant: nothing to expect from the 4th generation of leaders (through 2012), some hope for the 5th (2012-2022), but most evolution expected once Hong Kong undergoes its self-selecting experiment (pushed off til the end of the decade) and the 6th generation (my-age people in their late 40s) start to be teed up around 2020. I expect this evolution toward pluralism (first factions within the Party, then slow divorce into recognizable competing parties) to find its consummation by around 2030, when China will hit the half-century mark since Deng's revolution, in line with my notion from Great Powers that single-party rule for about five decades after the "revolution" is approximately the norm (I date it at 64 years for the U.S, or only after Andrew Jackson "third term" in the form of Martin Van Buren, meaning the 1840 presidential election when Whigs and Democrats teed off rather evenly for the first time--in terms of popular appeal).

I expect the late 2020s and early 2030s to be a fascinating time. I'll be closing in on my mid-to-late-sixties.

I did not wear any of our Colts jerseys to the confirmation session for my son today, although I spotted plenty of jerseys at mass. After the championship game, I was defintely invested for all the same reasons why I've been married since 1986: Vonne was born in Indiana and it mattered plenty to her.

So yeah, we had all the widescreens tuned, and after I did all the floors in the house and worked out, I was wearing my Harrison #88 and in the home theater, just refurbished with a new lamp for the InFocus HD projector (don't ask the price).

After the first quarter, it felt just fine, like any good Colt victory, and I was feeling very positive for Peyton, who deserves everything he gets.

But it did not happen, and it did not happen in such a Favre-like way: giving away the game on an INT-TD-return.

Needless to say I am even more bonded to my AFC mistress by this pain. Vonne slapped me on the shoulder after the return and said, "Now, we'll move up even faster on the waiting list for season tickets!?

Of course I love this woman!

And it does feel good to contemplate staying here longer than expected. I do love this house, and I do love this family. And now that I know that Indiana is not necessarily a cursed physical location for me (post sinus surgery), I am happy enough contemplating staying longer, especially since my Pack is on sked to show up here for the 2012 SB in Indy!

But it does hurt.

Not like the Pack loss to Denver, but the household is sad.

My younger son and I had to immediately switch to a first season "Lost" episode to clear our palates, and check out Kate's outfit on Disc 5.

I am happy for NOLA though. The team delivered me from Farve and, as such, they deserve everything they dare grasp. Congrats to the Saints.

Beyond all this, I do suspect we've just witnessed an historic Super Bowl. Remember, this is the season of the Belichick 4th-and-2 go-for-it. Consider the Saints go-for-broke at the end of the first half and then the on-side to start the second. I do believe we're seeing the early onset of the no-punt NFL--already brewing in the HS and college game.

And I think this game will be perceived as a turning point in NFL history.

+ HG's WORLD linked The Fallacy of an Increasingly Dangerous World.
+ And linked Why China Will Not Bury America.

+ Judah Grunstein linked The Austin Accords of March, 2031.

+ China Law Blog linked Tin ear on Taiwan.

+ Vidney (Spanish-language YouTube?) has the Middlebury Brief.

+ Chuck Baldwin recommends reading PNM.

+ Mark Hudziak says Tom's weblog is one of the 'Three Top Websites for Analysis of Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and National Security Issues in Today's World'.

ARTICLE: Selling South Korea, By B. J. Lee, Newsweek, Jan 29, 2010

Continuing my theme that the great powers with the most interesting foreign policy agendas are classic Seam States (e.g., Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, Indonesia), here's a nice exploration of the globalizing ambition that is South Korea.

(Thanks: Jeff Jennings)

ARTICLE: As China Rises, Fears Grow on Whether Boom Can Endure, By MICHAEL WINES, New York Times, January 11, 2010

You want to talk about a flood? How about all the stories suddenly appearing on the Chinese bubble, unsustainable development, "cracks in the facade," a model straining at its growing limits, etc?

No, China has not redefined capitalism or development. As a single-party state, it has simply traversed, command-style, the extensive period of easy growth, where more, More, MORE is all you need for the lucky 8 percent growth every year.

Will it work forever? No way. The intensive stuff is based on innovation, and governments cannot direct that, nor control the innovators.

So the crash(es) will inevitably arrive, and all the toxic, hidden debts will need to be paid. And no, the Party will not survive the process in its current form--or dominance.

The better the Party plans for that reality, the less the transition will hurt. But the goofy bragging you read in party pubs is just embarrassingly stupid--like an 18-year-old thinking he's conquered the world and all wisdom.

ARTICLE: Being Clooney: Not as Easy as It Looks, By TERRENCE RAFFERTY, New York Times, January 8, 2010

The piece I've been waiting to read on Clooney for several years now, having just watched "Michael Clayton" again recently at home and thinking the very same thing about the ending.

It is nice to have a few true movie stars around to enjoy, along with all the Actors! (And I do deeply enjoy the Depps and Day-Lewises of the world.)

Recently reading a great bio of James Stewart, it made me think that Clooney is one of the few stars today who would have thrived in the old studio system as Stewart did--sort of (only to find himself more when he went independent in the 1950s and plowed a lot of the same character types that Clooney is working now).

ARTICLE: We can broker peace with the Taleban, says Turkey, By Michael Binyon, (London) Times, January 13, 2010

I put a lot more stock in this scenario than anything the Obama administration has so far offered.

I wish Turkey continued ambition and perseverance.

(Thanks: Jeffrey Itell)

POST: Share of World GDP 1969-2009, By jccavalcanti, November 21, 2009

Fascinating chart that shows distinctly that Asia's rise has not come at America's expense, but rather that of Europe. Meanwhile, the Gap-heavy LATAM and Africa and Middle East remain stagnant, in terms of global GDP shares.

ARTICLE: Mergers to increase in 2010, By Brendan Ryan, miningmx.com, 04 Feb 2010

Here's the part about Tom:

He described a earlier presentation to the conference by Enterra Solutions MD Thomas Barnett on growing Chinese influence in Africa as, "a simplified picture from a United States perspective. I don't agree with Barnett's scenario of China taking over the world."

Tom says:

If that's all he took from my presentation, then "simplified" is a good term for his thinking.

Point to take away: he felt threatened enough by my impact with the audience that needed to cite it as a marker from which to distance himself.

People familiar with my work know I don't say anything close to China "taking over the world." I simply say that Asians are the natural networkers for globalization going forward. You can deal with reality or you can run from it.

But I am thrilled to hear about my MD. Now I can write scripts for myself!

[Sean here: Tom makes a weak joke here, based on his recent medical issues and lifelong jealously over his younger brother's MD-PhD; MD here stands for managing director]

More crudely put (and I've said this in Beijing every chance I've received), all this talk about China taking over anything is complete nonsense. At the end of the day, the guy with the biggest gun wins, and when similar guns are fielded, the guy who's more comfortable taking serious chances wins.

China is nowhere near having a gun similar to our own, and as for willingness to use, we're talking boys-to-men in comparison. China can't take chances in foreign policy, much less national security (i.e., war) because if the Party screws up, it has no capacity to swap out bad leadership for good, something we call "throwing the bums out." The GOP wastes a lot of blood and treasure and we throw them out. If the Dems are perceived as doing the same, we'll throw them out soon enough. Meanwhile, the American system continues.

If the CCP screws up anything, who gets thrown out? Because nobody in Beijing can answer that question, expect the Chinese to remain all talk and no serious action so long as the Party rules.

So no, China won't be taking over anything, despite the current hype. Envelopes stuffed with cash just won't get it done.