Wikistrat is currently running a simulation on "When Putin Falls." It's not a prediction, per se, but an exploration of a pathway in which Putin does not finish out his current six-year term.
With that in mind, check out "The four stages of Putinism," by Andrei Piontkovsky at the Hudson Institute.
- Creating the legitimizing myth
- Period of storms and stresses
- Heroic triumph
- Ideological exhaustion and death
In my mind, Putinism was an inevitable rightist-surge following the opening-up under Yelstin (too chaotic). It set the ship of state on a steadier course but it has not knowledge of how to rule - only how to build and consolidate rule (the siloviki).
What is hopefully next is the permanent normalization of politics post-Putin. He can facilitate that in a graceful way, but one is tempted to say that's unlikely.
Anyway, already any number of interesting scenarios posted on the sim's wiki.
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