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« Just how late-Brezhevian Iran really is | Main | Great "Bottom of the Pyramid" logic »
10:04AM

Q&A Session at Wikistrat's Blog

Ask Wikistrat’s Chief Analyst Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett

 


Editor’s Note: Every week, Wikistrat’s Facebook followers engage in a 24-hour exclusive Q&A drill with one of Wikistrat’s Senior Analysts via Facebook. This week we featured Wikistrat’s Chief Analyst Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett.

Q: Timothy Kelly-  Dr. Barnett, how do you think nuclear proliferation will play out in the Middle East?

A: I think the Obama Administration’s oil-focused sanctions will put immense pressure on the Iranian regime to cave in on the nuke question, possibly to the point of striking out in some manner that Israel – and perhaps the U.S. – can use as a pretext for launching substantial strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities.  But if I had to bet, I would lay money on Israel striking first for its own reasons versus Tehran providing the excuse.  Iran has always struck me as incredibly aware of which line-crossing activities will elicit direct military responses, and, much in the vein of WS’s recent simulation on this subject, I think Tehran knows well that it needs to avoid any genuine threat to global oil markets – lest it trigger an “all-in” military response from the United States . . . 

Read the entire post at Wikistrat's Blog.

Reader Comments (2)

Very interesting insights if Obama wins for another four years even though I do not believe most Obama voting Americans will understand these insights. How much of this will unravel if Romney wins. Perhaps the "lead from behind" momentum will be so far engaged the die will have been cast.

July 30, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterElmer Humes

Quote from Dag Hammarskjold's diary, published under the title Markings.

"The most dangerous of all moral dilemmas: when we are
obliged to conceal truth in order to help the truth to be
victorious. If this should at any time become our duty in
the role assigned to us by fate, how strait must be our path
at all times if we are not to perish."

July 30, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterLouis Heberlein

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