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« Great "Bottom of the Pyramid" logic | Main | The CNOOC bid for Nexen: the inevitable next step in the NorthAm-East Asia energy evolution »
12:23PM

Iran gearing up for naval fight in PG versus US

We've seen the reports of the US bulking up its naval presence, and now we get Iran claiming (via WAPO) more capabilities to strike USN ships.

What to keep in mind: Iran can do damage to US ships, while US ships can do far more damage to Iran, but none of this says Iran can close Straits, which would be a monumentally more complex drill than is commonly portrayed.

But more immediate point:  war of nerves heating up.

US obviously expects iran to lash out at some point as the West's oil-sales-ban comes into effect over coming months, so we're gearing up for the flashpoint all right, which means shooting could easily come.

Does that qualify as war?  It can qualify itself very quickly. That's for damn sure.

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According to analyst's reports that I have read, the Iranians are depending on submarines, mines and hundreds of small high speed boats that can fire missiles. Their strategy will be to "swarm" American warships coming at them from 360 degrees on the compass and overwhelming our current defense systems. One writer called the plan "A swarm of hornets."

We all know that you don't fight hornets one at a time. You destroy the nest instead.

So there is the rub. If the "flash point" comes, we will initially take some casualties. We will have to respond and that means going after the "nests" which in this case would be Iranian shore facilities and bases. They will be defended by surface to air missiles and so the fighting escalates and escalates.

The destruction of Iranian naval bases would have to be complete. This will entail a lot of planes, a lot of cruise missiles, and a hell of a lot of high explosive ordinance landing on Iranian soil. Are we going to be able to launch attacks from Iran or Saudi Arabia? Or one of the "Stans?"

I must admit that I am not clear on what we are going to accomplish by getting into a very nasty shooting war right now. Who is going to side with us? Are we going in alone? Really, I am getting tired of this. We can't go two decades without another war and we still don't have a cure for cancer.

July 29, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterTed O'Connor

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