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4:45PM

Time's Battleland: National Security - Just How Intelligent is the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2030?

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Every half-decade, the National Intelligence Council’s “Global Trends” series produces a roughly 20-year predictive analysis of the world’s evolution – an analysis considered to be the best long-range geopolitical forecasting conducted by the U.S. government. These multi-year efforts involve consultations with hundreds of experts from around the world (the last two drills have featured interviews and presentations from yours truly.) The NIC also conducts global “road shows” to collect feedback for great powers like RussiaChina and various European states.

Simply stated, the biggest problem with this year’s Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds is the lack of internally consistent logic throughout each of the worlds presented.

Read the entire post at Time's Battleland blog.

Reader Comments (1)

All scenarios on China have a missing option: What if a religious movement like the Falungong became a mass party. In India we had the nationalistic-religious RSS who transformed in the BJP. In Sunnite states we have the Muslimbrotherhood which became the Freedom and Justice Party(FJP). In Turkey we had Milli Görus which was the base for the AKP.The Falungong had about 100 million followers at the time she was prohibited by the Chinese goverment. The Falungong still has a large underground network in China and overseas and seems to be the best organized anti-CPChina-force. Therefore instead of a democratization of China or a neo-Maoist movement it could also happen, that the Falungong becomes a mass party and an influential force.In no analysis I have ever read this scenario: A fundamentalist religious Falungon seizing power in China. What sort of foreign policy would a Falungong- China have?

December 25, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterRalf Ostner

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