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10:05AM

WPR's The New Rules: The New World Order-After-Next

There is no faster route to second-tier great power status than for an actual or aspiring superpower to fight a crippling conflict with another country from those same ranks. Moreover, if history is any guide, the glass ceiling that results is a permanent one: This was the fate of imperial Britain, imperial Japan and Germany -- both imperial and Nazi -- in the first half of the 20th century, and the same was true for Soviet Russia in the second half of the century, despite Moscow's conflict with the West being a cold one. The lesson is an important one for Washington, Beijing and New Delhi to keep in mind in the years ahead, given that the two most likely dyads for major war in the 21st century are America-China and China-India. 

Read the entire column at World Politics Review.

Reader Comments (3)

An excellent analysis of what the world will probably look like in 19 short years. When I read this I immediatly forwarded it to my son a poly science and foreign policy undergrad as an example of he world he can look forward to when he reaches his prime.

Also noted that Great Satan's GF swooned for your 2030 vision,

July 27, 2011 | Unregistered CommenterThomas Wade

It's the conclusion of the brief now, and probably my next book, possibly co-authored with others.

July 27, 2011 | Registered CommenterThomas P.M. Barnett

Well this doesn´t sound too nice for Europe, Japan and Russia.But maybe you are right.( However. I doubt the determinism of demography. Technology and innoivations still can compensate the demographic loss--and what is about the new Indian labour pool if they are unemployed--then it´s more swamp than a pool). A trio USA, China and India--that will rule the world and be the center of the new world policy in the 21st century.Why not? Germany also could survive as a new Switzerland of Europe without boots on the ground everywhere in the whole world, but as a energy-independent, high-tech-country. However, dear Tom, you stil have a lot to do to get to this new "CIA"-trio implemented. Till now the confrontation between the USA and China is becoming more severe ( till now there was no official reaction to your and John´s grand strategy term sheet) and especially between India and China. If you listen to India´s media, China just had a joint military drill between the PLAF and the Pakistan airforce called Shaneen 1 (Eagle 1). China also announced that it will have joint military manouvres in Pakistan with the Pakistan ground forces, China declared that any attack on Pakistan would be an attack on China--addressing the USA (after the US Navy Seal operation against Bin Laden) and India. India complains that China is building the road from Kharakorrum to Gwadar with PLA units and that the PLA is building bunkers, streets in Kashmir. As I have seen the Claremont team won the Wikistrat competition with its analysis about Pakistan.The danger of an sinoamerican-Indian war about Pakistan could become a reality.Therefore maybe your next Wikistrat competition should have as two main subjects for a grand stratgey: How can the trio USA-China-India be built? Could Pakistan be the nexus for a US-Pakistan-Chinese-Indian cooperation? If Pakistan doesn´t become the imagined energy corridor Asia will be in big trouble. Wish you good luck.

July 28, 2011 | Unregistered CommenterRalf Ostner

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