Receive "The World According to Tom Barnett" Brief
Where I Work
Search the Site
Buy Tom's Books
  • Great Powers: America and the World After Bush
    Great Powers: America and the World After Bush
    by Thomas P.M. Barnett
  • Blueprint for Action: A Future Worth Creating
    Blueprint for Action: A Future Worth Creating
    by Thomas P.M. Barnett
  • The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-first Century
    The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-first Century
    by Thomas P.M. Barnett
  • Romanian and East German Policies in the Third World: Comparing the Strategies of Ceausescu and Honecker
    Romanian and East German Policies in the Third World: Comparing the Strategies of Ceausescu and Honecker
    by Thomas P.M. Barnett
  • The Emily Updates (Vol. 1): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    The Emily Updates (Vol. 1): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    by Vonne M. Meussling-Barnett, Thomas P.M. Barnett
  • The Emily Updates (Vol. 2): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    The Emily Updates (Vol. 2): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    by Thomas P.M. Barnett, Vonne M. Meussling-Barnett
  • The Emily Updates (Vol. 3): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    The Emily Updates (Vol. 3): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    by Thomas P.M. Barnett, Vonne M. Meussling-Barnett
  • The Emily Updates (Vol. 4): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    The Emily Updates (Vol. 4): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    by Thomas P.M. Barnett, Vonne M. Meussling-Barnett
  • The Emily Updates (Vol. 5): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    The Emily Updates (Vol. 5): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    by Vonne M. Meussling-Barnett, Thomas P.M. Barnett, Emily V. Barnett
Monthly Archives
Powered by Squarespace
« The Emily Updates, Volume 2, hits the eBook stores | Main | Emily Updates Volume 2 photos page up on the book site »
9:03AM

WPR's The New Rules: Turkey's Long Game in the Cyprus Gas Dispute

"Resource wars" enthusiasts worldwide have a new -- and unexpected -- poster child:"zero problems with neighbors" Turkey. The Turkish government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is beside itself over Israel's recent moves to cooperate with Cyprus on surveying its Eastern Mediterranean seabed for possible natural gas deposits thought to be lying adjacent to the reserves discovered last year off the coast of Haifa.

Read the entire column at World Politics Review.

Reader Comments (5)

An interesting analysis and a very holistic view which takes all players into consideration. What is important is the role of the USA, EU and Russia. Also the scenario with Iran possibly getting nuclear weapons in 2015 and the implications for Turkey and Saudi Arabia. If all these states go nuclear we would have a very complex situation and also what it could mean to Turkey´s NATO membership.The question will be: Will Turkey leave NATO or not?

October 10, 2011 | Unregistered CommenterRalf Ostner

Interesting analysis.

It seems that you have decided Turkey's break with "the West" is inevitable in the medium term. I myself think that Turkey's rise will continue but the break will be more nuanced and spread over a longer period. In terms of going nuclear, Turkey will be a nuclear-armed state within the next 10 years.

Also, one point which is in the article, but should be made clearer, is that it is Greek Cypriot intransigence which has led to the deadlock in Cyprus.

Finally, how do you see the dwindling US influence in the middle east playing out? That is the elephant in the room, and GWB's and Obama's moves have tended to enforce this reduction in influence.

October 10, 2011 | Unregistered Commenterkodlu

One key issue is: Will Turkey leave NATO? Is this what Erdogan wants? Who should replace NATO?
Option 1)An isolated, nuclear armed Turkey?
Option 2)An alliance with Russia (though the Russian military is pretty weak, is bound to its "near abroad" and alreday siding with Greece in this conflict). Could Russia give Turkey the nuclear umbrella against Iran? But wouldn´t that alienate Russia from Iran?
Option 3) An alliance with instable Pakistan as neo-CENTO? Unlikely!
Option 4) An alliance with Iran?
Option 5) An alliance with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
If you analyze all these options are more unlikely.If Turkey would leave NATO, it would a high price at the expense of its own national interests.I think he will remain in the Western NATO, but play his double game with Israel, but not to the point of a break-away.

October 11, 2011 | Unregistered CommenterRalf Ostner

"
Finally, how do you see the dwindling US influence in the middle east playing out? That is the elephant in the room, and GWB's and Obama's moves have tended to enforce this reduction in influence."

A very good question--in combination with the question: How do you see China´s growing influence in the Greater Middle East in the mid-and long term? The Western pro-Israelpolicy could be the mill stone around the neck of our Middle East policy while China hasn´t got the problem to support the unjust Israeli land grabbing and occupation by settlements against the Palestinians. However, China won´t have a strong military muscle in this region,this will still be the monopoly of the USA, but its economic and soft power will grow.On the other side it will be difficult to have a strategy when Turkey, Israel, Iran and Saudiarabia all want to become regional powers.Rihayd is already complaining about China´s biased Iran policy. However, this could bring China in the role of a mediator between the regional powers.What do you think?

October 11, 2011 | Unregistered CommenterRalf Ostner

In a weird way, you make Turkey sound like a rebellious adolescent; ready to establish his own identity and looking for ways to piss everyone (outside the cool crowd, i.e. the Arab world) off to make it happen.

October 12, 2011 | Unregistered CommenterMichael

PostPost a New Comment

Enter your information below to add a new comment.

My response is on my own website »
Author Email (optional):
Author URL (optional):
Post:
 
Some HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong>