Winners and Losers in Iraq's Upcoming Election

The upcoming Iraqi parliamentary elections loom large in the political fortunes of so many players, both internal and external, that it constitutes a historical referendum of sorts -- not just for Iraq, but beyond as well. Across the region, globalization, in all its complex currents, appears poised at a number of inflection points. The outcome of Iraq's elections will leave winners on some fronts, losers on others, and will trigger plenty of bandwagoning by those worried about being left out or left behind. Here's a list of some potential outcomes, none of which are mutually exclusive, in rough order of likelihood:

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Comments

[Petrer]

All things equal, if Obama can continue not to mess anything up, and he can still use his star power and organizational force, he will get re-elected under a split government where Republicans will in fact take back the House and Senate.

"Ending the Iraq war" is in fact insulting to people's intelligence, but simply saying "ending the Iraq battle," would do well to frame the truth....Obama did in fact allude to this type of foreign policy in his Nobel Peace prize speech....in front of an audience of European copperheads.

[Tom Barnett]

More my point: Not a war between states, but a regime toppling by coalition, followed by civil war/strife/insurgency. Stopped being war in classic sense years ago, and not ours to win or lose per se. Certainly not ours to "end."